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SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2019.12.9-2019.12.13)

iconDec 13, 2019 21:11
Source:SMM
SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2019.12.9-2019.12.13)

SMM, 13 Dec:

This week, under the guidance of a strong breakthrough in copper, the basic metals came out of the trough one after another and rose continuously, with SMMI rising 2% per week. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the positive mood brought about by last Friday's non-agricultural data. The announcement of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting was confident in the future economic development, and the bulls entered the market. After the week, the ECB interest rate meeting said that the policy of easing was still the same, and the Conservative Party in the British general election was set. The Brexit in January next year is expected to be completed, the pound rose sharply, the dollar fell below 97 points, the basic metals rose again, and Lun copper rose 2.7%. Shanghai copper bulls continued to increase positions by 120000 hands, surging 3.4%, the current fear rose and fell to near Pingshui, but SMMI.Cu still led an increase of 3.31%. A large number of nickel shorts left the market, pushing Shanghai nickel out of the trough to rise above 110000, up 4.45% per week, spot rising water continued to decline, transactions were weak, SMMI.Ni rose only 1.83% per week. Lead also left the market in large numbers off last week's low zone near Wan Wu, with refineries and traders selling higher prices, spot performance significantly stronger than futures, SMMI.Pb rose 0.98 per cent. Xikongping more into, Shanghai tin rushed to the 142000 yuan target, the spot is cautious, some arbitrageurs expanded discount cash, SMMI.Sn rose only 0.9%. Zinc returned to the top of Wanba under short positions, but the spot rally gradually fell, less than last week, SMMI.Zn rose 0.11%. Only aluminum rose and fell back during the week, while SMMI.Al fell 0.43 per cent at 05:00. Shanghai aluminum rushed higher after giving up the rise, the spot is close to delivery, the monthly price spread is still around 100 yuan, so that the spot rising water continues to decline, and even discount trading, SMMI.Al weekly decline of 0.43%. PMI data from all over the world will be released next week. The market is expected to pick up. The US stock market has continuously hit record highs, the US dollar is low, and the macro environment is still positive and optimistic. All basic metals have got rid of the previous low range this week. Under the short market, there is still momentum to continue to rise. Spot prices will also maintain a high price trend in the final window of the final single trading of the year, which is about to come to an end. Therefore, the basic metal period of the two cities are more likely to show a strong trend.

Copper: this week copper is a breakthrough strong leader in the big rise. Friday's strong ferment of US non-farm data boosted confidence in the US economy, and the Fed's interest rate resolution report in the middle of the week reflected the continued expansion of the overall economy and the continued strength of the US labour market. At the same time, the recent warming of euro zone data has also led the European Central Bank to maintain the interest rate decision unchanged, easing policy continues; At the same time, the good news from the British general election, Johnson's Conservative Party won the election overwhelmingly, the future Brexit is expected to fall, the pound suddenly soared nearly 400 points, the dollar fell below 97 points, down 96.591, fell back to the low level since July, helping to push copper prices to lead a continuous surge in basic metals; As news of trade between China and the United States increased over the weekend, Trump said China and the United States were very close to reaching a trade deal and that market optimism had intensified. A lot of good factors made this week copper prices finally got rid of the interval of more than half a year to sort out the situation, out of the nearly half a year of new highs. At the beginning of the week, Lun copper continued its strong trend of breaking through the US $6000 mark on Friday, based on US $6000 / ton and climbing steadily along the 5-day moving average, with a stepped rise of 5 Lianyang, reaching the highest point of US $6216 / ton, a weekly increase of 2.7 per cent. The position increased by more than 16000 hands to 313000 hands. Led by the long increase in positions, Lun Copper has jumped above all EMA and has stood above Brin on the track.

Shanghai copper is a change for a long time in the doldrums, performance volume skyrocketing trend. On Monday morning, copper futures in Shanghai broke through 48000 yuan / ton in early trading, and more than 60, 000 bulls entered the market to push up the contract of copper 2002 in Shanghai by 2.19 per cent in one day. Subsequently, a series of domestic economic data showed that domestic financial data in November showed a bright performance, overall credit improved, the domestic economy remained sound, and bullish confidence doubled. For two days in a row, more than 60, 000 hands increased their positions again, from 48400 yuan / ton. Along the 5-day moving average, it climbed to the highest point of 49380 yuan / ton in the week, closing at 5 positive, with a weekly increase of 3.4%, and the 2002 weekly position of the main copper contract in Shanghai increased by nearly 120000 hands. To 284000 hands, trading volume increased by more than 900000 hands to 1.26 million hands. The weekly position of Shanghai Copper Index increased by more than 90, 000 hands to more than 610000 hands, and the trading volume increased by nearly 1.33 million hands to nearly 2.4 million hands. Shanghai copper made up for the fall gap in April, and the disk showed a near weak and far strong Contango structure, showing the current market long concept of copper.

In the spot aspect, the spot rose and fell all the way this week, and the quotation showed a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, because the copper price rose by more than 2%, the holders were eager to exchange cash on the bargain, but the copper futures skyrocketed to restrain the terminal consumption buying. Although it entered the delivery period this week, the quotation opened a waist-chopping downward rate in the atmosphere of fearing heights. The quotation dropped directly from the rising water of 110-150 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the week to the discount 10 yuan / ton-20 yuan / ton, due to the approach of delivery, and the monthly price spread remained stable at about 80 yuan / ton. The source of goods is attractive, and the performance of trade speculation is more positive, so the holder appears the situation of low price and difficult to find the source of discount goods, but due to the continuous rise in prices, copper prices are difficult to carry out, although traders have the willingness to receive goods and look forward to the source of goods, but it is difficult to achieve the desired price target, the supply and demand sides are caught in a standoff, so the weekend quotation is basically stable in the rising water of 10-40 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: this week, Lun aluminum as a whole showed first suppression and then rise, gradually get rid of the entanglement of each EMA. Early Zhou Lun aluminum opened at $1763.5 / ton, trying to break through last week's upward trend, but encountered short tenacious resistance, increasing positions for two days in a row Lun aluminum fell below the moving average low of $1749 / ton. Affected by the interest rate resolution released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday night, non-ferrous metals generally turned red and rose, and Lun aluminum rebounded as a result. Under the continuous decline and weakness of the US index, short departure increased, Lun aluminum low rose to record three consecutive suns, broke through various averages one after another, and reached 1782 US dollars / tonne. As of Friday afternoon, Lun Aluminium stood at 1781 US dollars / ton, smoothing the decline and rising during the week. Weekly positions increased by 2823 to 749521 hands. Mainly for the long increase in positions. Affected by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain low interest rates and the Conservative Party's temporary lead in the British general election, the US index continued to decline, the non-ferrous plate led by the copper led by the overall red, Lun aluminum also recorded a rise in the week. Considering that there will be more macroeconomic economic data in Europe and the United States next week, and the data are expected to be relatively optimistic, the US index is likely to stop falling weakness. At the same time, as of Friday, Lun aluminum inventory has increased by 59500 tons in the week, LME aluminum 0-3 price difference turned negative, it is expected that next week aluminum will try to break through again, but 1800 US dollars / ton position is still under pressure, the operating range is 1760-1800 US dollars / ton.

This week the Shanghai aluminum main force 2002 contract completes the main force to change the month, the whole presents the high shock. At the beginning of the week, the Shanghai aluminum 2002 contract opened at a low of 13720 yuan / ton during the week. In the main position transfer, the bulls were significantly dominant. On Monday alone, Shanghai aluminum broke through several moving averages to block a strong upward trend, with only a 60-day moving average left above. After the long continued to increase positions, Shanghai aluminum recorded three Lianyang, breaking through the 60-day moving average high touch 13975 yuan / ton. After the high long-space game intensified, Shanghai aluminum shock operation, as of Friday afternoon closed at 13945 yuan / ton, up 1.49% per week. Weekly positions increased by 55164 to 237592, while weekly positions in the Shanghai Aluminum Index decreased by 11690 to 601498. Macroscopically, the US index has weakened, and Sino-US trade frictions have eased to make the non-ferrous trend stronger during the week. At the same time, the weekly social aluminum ingot inventory continues to decline, consumption is still excellent, but also makes short relatively afraid. Considering the current macro relative optimism, Shanghai aluminum downstream consumption is stable and good, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high shock next week, the 2002 contract runs at 13800 yuan 14050 yuan / ton.

Spot transactions are more general this week, and market developments are still led by traders. The mainstream spot transaction prices in Shanghai and Wuxi are concentrated in the range of 14000-14140 yuan / ton, and the average weekly price is 20 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The spot price in Hangzhou is between 14010-14150 yuan / ton. Aluminum prices rose at the beginning of the week, holders actively shipped, but middlemen on the high price is more difficult to recognize, the receiving price is not high, the two sides deal stalemate, near the weekend aluminum prices fall back and discount quotation, so that shippers are less willing to ship, shipping enthusiasm than a few days ago, but middlemen at this time every discount price receiving enthusiasm is high, the market began to show less to receive more situation, in addition, this week the market participation is more general. Downstream this week to go on demand, a few days ago the price is not very recognized, receiving mediocre, near the weekend discount supply transactions have increased warming.

Lead: this week, driven by the strength of non-ferrous metals, lead closed at 5 Lianyang, technically breaking through the 20-day moving average pressure; At the beginning of the week, Lun lead inertia fell, low down to $1865.5 / ton, refreshing a six-month low, and then as the macro mood warmed up, non-ferrous metal copper began to accelerate the rising market, and then led to Lun lead low reverse rise, successive breakthrough 5, 10, 20 moving average pressure, as high as $1945 / ton, as of Friday, Lun lead reported at $1936.5 / ton, a weekly increase of 3.4%. Next week's macro data can be followed: the initial value of manufacturing PMI in France in December, the initial value of manufacturing PMI in Germany in December, the initial value of manufacturing PMI in December in the euro area, the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in December in the United States, the annualized total number of new housing starts in November in the United States (10,000 households), the total number of permits built in November in the United States (10,000 households), the monthly rate of industrial output in November in the United States, the monthly rate of Markit in November in the eurozone, and the annualized total number of existing house sales in the United States (10,000 households). European and American parliaments released manufacturing data for December. Next week will focus on the recent progress of Sino-US trade; return to London lead, overseas spot structure and LME lead inventory stability, want to do soft position from the structure of less opportunities, disturbance price weight will also be reduced, the future focus on macro sentiment and closely focus on the lead of copper. The expected operating range is $1900-1970 per tonne.

This week, Shanghai lead low gradually climbed, the price trend closely followed Lun lead, closed at 5 Lianyang, a cumulative increase of 0.99%. At the beginning of the week, after several days of low consolidation, some bears in the surrounding metal floating red began to choose to leave the market and watch, pushing up the Shanghai lead price shock and upward, moving the center of gravity upward, during which the high level once reached 15330 yuan / ton, but after bearing pressure on the 20th EMA fell back, and finally reported at 15270 yuan / ton. Domestic fundamentals, with the recovery of low lead prices, downstream procurement sentiment has improved, is expected to continue procurement next week, another into late December, downstream or one after another began to prepare for annual stock, overall consumption or month-on-month warming. In terms of supply, with the recovery of prices, the restoration of profits of recycled enterprises, and the stable supply of output, the primary lead enterprises basically completed the annual production plan at the end of the year because of stable production throughout the year, and the impulse probability at the end of the year was relatively small. if the macro mood improves, there is the possibility of a small surge in Shanghai lead, but lead is still in short allocation on the big contradiction between supply and demand, and if there is an opportunity for seasonal structural rise in the short term, You can sell short on high. In addition, the main contract will be replaced next week, and the 2002 operating range is expected to be 15000-15350 yuan / ton.

The main trading range of spot lead this week is 15425-15600 yuan / ton. This cycle lead low gradually reverse rise, downstream see price stabilizes, this week purchase mood obviously warms up, the overall transaction situation is obviously better than last week; the primary lead market, the smelter finished product inventory is low, the delivery structure is mainly long single, the refinery bulk single quotation is less, as of Friday, the refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to the SMM1# lead average price level water to raise the water 50 yuan / ton quotation; Trade market, near delivery, the month and the other month price difference once expanded to 400 yuan / ton, holders cherish the sale, supply reduction, maintain rising water quotation, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to 1912 contract flat; recycled lead, prices stop falling, enterprise production profit repair, as of Friday, recycled refined lead mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 1912 yuan / ton to flat water.

Zinc: zinc rebounded this week, breaking the 5-day and 10-day moving average and trying to test the 20-day line. At the beginning of the week, economic data were mixed, bulls reduced positions, Lun zinc pressure fell, as low as $2213 / ton, midweek to Friday close, the dollar fell, Sino-US trade negotiations gradually improved, the macro environment warmed up, non-ferrous metals rose, Lun zinc short left the market to stop falling back up, recorded three Lianyang, and measured 20 lines of suppression, touch as high as $2278 / ton. As of Friday, the position of Lun Zinc had been reduced by 8674 hands to 2.433 million hands, with an increase of 1.52 per cent during the week.

This week Shanghai zinc in the continuation of last week's rally, in the vicinity of 17870 yuan / ton shock finishing, climbed again, the center of gravity moved up to 18080 yuan / ton line and touched as high as 18155 yuan / ton. From Monday to Wednesday, the action on Shanghai zinc was limited, basically showing a trend of horizontal concussion. From Thursday to Friday, the concussion of the US index weakened, the social inventory in seven places fell, and the confidence of the bulls doubled. Shanghai zinc gradually went up, broke through the suppression of the 20-day moving average, and reached 18155 yuan / ton. at the end of the day, Shanghai zinc continued its sunny trend. by Friday, the position of the main Shanghai zinc 2002 contract had increased by 24272 to 218000. Shanghai zinc rose 1.34% during the week.

Spot rising water in Shanghai market fell back this week. As of Friday, ordinary brand zinc basically rose 180-190 yuan / ton to 1912 contracts. Shuangyan newspaper rose 190-200 yuan / ton, Huize market circulation is less, the market has little quotation; this week due to the narrowing of import losses, the market has SMC quotation circulation, as of Friday, SMC reported to the 1912 contract rose 160-170 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai holders high water selling, market panic spread, ordinary brand zinc spot water rose from 1912 contract water 250 yuan / ton rapid downward to water 120-130 yuan / ton, a few days later, near the first batch of long single delivery, the market again appeared speculative receiving behavior, the market supply is tight again, spot rising water to stop the decline rebounded, as of Friday, ordinary zinc brand to 1912 contract water 180-190 yuan / ton; the following days, near the first batch of long single delivery, the market supply is tight again, the spot rising water stops falling back, as of Friday, the ordinary zinc brand to the 1912 contract liter water 180-190 yuan / ton; In addition, the source of goods from Guangdong arrived in Shanghai this week, but most of them were pre-sold, so they did not circulate in the market; in the import of zinc, the price comparison between inside and outside this week remained at 8.16, and part of the SMC circulation existed in the market, SMC reported to the 1912 contract rose 160-170 yuan / ton; entering next week, the supply of goods for delivery in the market gradually flowed into the trade market, and it is expected that the spot rising water will continue to rise after the exchange month.

The price of domestic zinc ingots in Ningbo market rose from 1912 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton this week, and the market circulation brand basically fell from 300 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton in December. The volume of goods in Ningbo remained tight this week, with inventories of just 1300 tons on Monday and continuing to decline to 1000 tons as of today. Traders are small shipments, and did not arrive in the middle of the week, traders are more willing to offer. On the downstream side, due to the recent rebound pace of zinc prices, and downstream enterprise orders have weakened, part of the downstream shutdown of part of the production capacity, demand slightly weaker, and in Ningbo high underwater, some downstream enterprises choose to pull goods from the Shanghai area. The superposition of the two phases led to poor trading in Ningbo this week. Today, a batch of Hualian has arrived, about 1000 tons. It is expected that the goods will arrive one after another from the weekend to next week, and the trading situation may improve next week.

This week, the contract between Guangdong and Shanghai Zinc 2001 rose by 190-200 yuan / ton, and the Guangdong stock market expanded from 120 yuan / ton to 180 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market on Friday. Zinc prices have risen steadily this week, the pace of refinery shipments has returned to normal, and the market has ample supply. The holder delivers the goods actively, however, the market supply is more, the current month-next month contract price difference week maintains in 180-200 yuan / ton range fluctuation, the holder continues last week's price at the beginning of the week, the offer is stronger, reports in the January contract rises 280 yuan / ton near, converts to that month rises 100 yuan / ton, but the early week shipment is more difficult. With the rapid decline in spot prices in Shanghai since Tuesday, transactions in the Guangdong market have fallen steadily to around 180-200 yuan / ton in January. On Friday, delivery is approaching, traders are actively scrambling for warehousing, and the circulation of goods in the market is rapidly tightening. This week, transactions in the trade market are still OK, and there is basically not much left downstream due to the consumption of reserve stores in the lower reaches. This week also entered the market in the second half of the week to buy a stronger willingness to replenish the warehouse. Overall, the trading atmosphere in Guangdong this week is more active, mainly due to downstream contributions to the main trading, slightly warmer than last week.

This week, Tianjin's zinc contract for Shanghai zinc 1912 rose by 50-250 yuan / ton, and the discount on the Shanghai stock market changed from about 80 yuan / ton last week to 90 yuan / ton in Tianjin. Refinery shipments were normal this week and market circulation was slightly tighter than last week. This week, the disk shook up above the Wanba pass and reached as high as 18400 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, smog production restrictions affected the progress of downstream enterprises, but the smog soon dispersed, stimulated by the current high profits, galvanizing plants to take goods better, downstream mining enthusiasm has been boosted. From the middle of the week to Friday, zinc prices fluctuated upward, and shippers were willing to take the initiative to lower their shipments, from 180-250 yuan / ton at the beginning to 50-140 yuan / ton on Friday. This week, the downstream to just need to buy mainly, but because the galvanizing plant operating rate is higher, but also contribute to a good trading volume. Overall, the trading situation in Tianjin this week is basically stable.

Tin: this week, Lunxi showed a trend of first raising and then suppressing. Most of London metals rose on Friday night as non-farm jobs rose by 266000 more than expected in the US in November, surging on the Changyang line in Lunxi. The rally continued earlier this week, peaking at a week high of $17410 a tonne and falling back under pressure, with Lunxi's latest price of $17085 a tonne as of 18: 00 on Friday. It rose nearly $100 during the week, falling to 0.8% from 2.4%. The trading volume was 2709 hands, and the position was 17870 hands, an increase of 726 hands. Zhou Neilun tin is a small positive line, the 5-day moving average line from the support line to the top of the head pressure line, the technical index is no longer comprehensive to more, but the overall pattern has not been broken. The overall inventory of Lunxi remained at a high level, with little change during the week.

This week, Shanghai tin is also showing a high fall state. Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract at the beginning of the week by the long position and part of the short force left the market, broke through the previous nearly 10 trading days of horizontal finishing interval on the track, and rushed up to the week high 141950 yuan / ton. Subsequently, as the disk price was close to the market psychological expected price of 142000 yuan, the bulls took a profit and left the market for two consecutive trading days, and the Shanghai tin pressure fell back to give up more than half of the increase at the beginning of the week. Shanghai tin closed at 139800 yuan per ton on Friday. It rose 590 yuan / ton, or 0.42%, during the week. The trading volume was 10206 hands, the position was 20750 hands, and the number was reduced by 1526 hands. Shanghai tin closed at a small positive line within the week, falling below the 5-day moving average for a solid 10-day moving average. After the Shanghai tin 2005 contract rushed to a high of 140230 yuan / ton in the middle of the week this week, it was obvious that the short force had built a position. On Friday, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main force 2005 contract was 137860 yuan / ton, and the full main force was about to complete the monthly exchange.

This week, Shanghai tin showed a trend of first raising and then suppressing, and the spot price of Shanghai tin fluctuated obviously with the disk. At the beginning of the week, some downstream enterprises initially continued to rise in tin prices, taking advantage of the opportunity to buy at bargains. As tin prices continue to rise, downstream enterprises gradually reduce their willingness to purchase only to maintain the need for replenishment. In terms of traders, due to cautious procurement in the coming week, the number of high construction positions is relatively small, which leads to a relatively small supply of low prices in the market after the Shanghai Xichong high fall. Shanghai tin spot prices fell further to 138500-141000 yuan / ton on Friday, but there was no sign of improvement, and transactions in the upper and lower reaches of the tin industry remained weak. The transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market is generally weak within the week. In terms of discount, the supply of goods in the market was generally maintained at a relatively stable level during the week due to cost constraints. However, due to the approach of the year, some traders have the willingness to go to the warehouse, and then expand the discount to actively ship goods, there are some low discount quotation in the market. On Friday, the Shanghai Tin 2001 contract set Yunxi Shengshui 800-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi flat water-discount 500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 1000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Nickel first suppresses and then rises, and gradually gets rid of the recent trough area. At the beginning of the week, Lunni once broke through the 12900 US dollars / ton mark, but with the advent of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the macro environment became warmer, the Conservative Party in the British general election settled, the pound soared, the US dollar plummeted, and the basic metals rose one after another under the guidance of copper. After Lunni left the market short and got support from the three levels, the bulls continuously increased their positions and entered the market by more than 9700 hands. Lunni rebounded higher continuously, breaking through the 5th and 10th moving averages. Standing on the 20-day moving average, showing a step upward, climbing the $14100 line, an increase of more than 5%. The technical index has turned to more in an all-round way. Weekly trading volume increased by 394 hands to 39534 hands, weekly position volume increased by more than 8000 hands to 307000 hands. What needs to be watched and cautioned this week is that LME nickel stocks have risen sharply in a row, with a cumulative increase of 54000 tons to 123000 tons, an increase of 44%, which may put pressure on the continued rebound of Lunni in the future.

This week, Shanghai nickel as a whole showed a slight rebound upward trend. After the shock finishing of 104500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, based on 105000 yuan / ton, it began to close on Tuesday for 3 consecutive days, breaking through the 5 / 10 moving average, from 105000 yuan / ton to 111000 yuan / ton today. as of Friday, the main contract for Shanghai nickel rose 4730 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.45%. Weekly trading volume increased by 932000 hands to 9.606 million hands, weekly position volume decreased by more than 44000 hands to 339000 hands. In the short position under the Shanghai nickel 105000 yuan / ton line to get support and slightly rebounded, return to the 20-day moving average, the center of gravity obviously lifted, the technical index temporarily out of the short main control.

In the spot market, the spot rise of pure nickel fell sharply this week. On the one hand, there was a recessive supply of goods in the domestic market this week, which made the market supply more abundant than in the early days. On the other hand, after the nickel price strengthened, the purchasing demand weakened and the rising water decreased to become an inevitable trend. under comprehensive factors, pure nickel holders generally cut down and actively ship goods. This week, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2001 contract week rose 490 yuan / ton, down 1040 yuan / ton from last week, Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel rose 4200 yuan / ton in 2001 weeks, 1020 yuan / ton less than last week. This week, the market trading atmosphere is light, holders generally reflect that the goods are not easy, the normal quotation is basically difficult to close, especially Russian nickel, 04:00 has begun from rising water to discount, still have to actively lower the quotation to be able to ship the goods. Jinchuan nickel rose and fell sharply this week, gradually falling back from 5000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3000 yuan / ton on Friday. It is expected that under the atmosphere of improved macro news, there may be room for nickel prices to continue to rise next week, while spot sales will still be under weak pressure. Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2001 contract discount 400-discount 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2001 contract up 2000-2500 yuan / ton.

 

 

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