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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on December 13

iconDec 13, 2019 20:39
Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on December 13

Copper: Apron copper opened at $6189 a tonne today. After the opening, the pound rose as a result of the favorable trade between China and the United States and the decision of the Conservative Party in the British general election. Copper prices rose to $6216 a tonne in the morning and remained high. Before the European market, due to macro events hit the ground, the market digested optimism, copper prices began to fall, breaking the daily average, down 6178 US dollars / ton. After entering the European session, copper prices continued to swing back, diving to $6165 / ton. As of 17: 50, Lun Copper closed up 0.15 per cent at $6170 a tonne, with the dollar index at 96.849 and US crude oil at $59.59 a barrel. In the evening, look at the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States for November. At present, the copper is negative, KDJ shows signs of convergence, and the impulse can be weakened. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to the $6160 / tonne position.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 2002 opened at 49040 yuan / ton in the morning, briefly probed down 49000 yuan / ton, and then continued to pull up. Straight line rushed to the highest point of 49360 yuan / ton in the day, and then quickly fell back to 49130 yuan / ton until the end of noon. After opening in the afternoon, it briefly rose 49230 yuan / ton, and then gave up most of the gains, closing at 49010 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, down 0.31%. The main contract position of Shanghai Copper fell by 840 hands to 280000 hands today, while the trading volume increased by 48000 hands to 270000 hands. Shanghai copper long position continued to move backward, Shanghai copper 2003 and 2004 contract a total of 5600 hands, to 134000 hands. Shanghai copper index positions fell 8110 to 612000, while trading volume increased by 82000 to 473000. At present, Shanghai copper closed in Wuyang, the market macro sentiment is still positive, as the British Conservative Party won the pound rose and pulled down the U. S. index, Shanghai copper was boosted to maintain a stable high position. A large amount of data from the United States will be released tonight, which will guide the market. At present, Shanghai copper receives cross stars, but it is necessary to be alert to the long film line on the K line in the past two days, and to guard against high pressure. Disk structure of short-term and forward contracts still reflect the Contango structure, showing that the market still maintains a more point of view on the future copper price. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stabilize 49000 yuan / ton.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 10 ~ 30 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 48880 yuan / ton ~ 49000 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 48900 yuan / ton ~ 49010 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper continues to be strong and high and fluctuates in the first line of 48900 yuan / ton. Morning market holders quoted water 20 ~ 40 yuan / ton, but the transaction is relatively small, good copper as low as 20 ~ 30 yuan / ton, traders intend to take the goods, flat water copper supply concentrated in the rising water 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton; wet copper Wai continued yesterday quoted discount 30 yuan / ton first-line quotation, downstream to maintain just need. Copper futures prices are on the high side, the market stops to wait and see the majority; the price spread stabilizes every other month, Pingshui copper and wet copper holders have no intention to reduce prices more, and maintain stability with yesterday. Although the market inquiry atmosphere is positive, but the volume of goods is limited, especially around 10:30, in the first and second trading hours of the excessive time window, Shanghai copper once quickly climbed to 49000 yuan / ton and then quickly fell back to 48900 yuan / ton line, the instability of the disk performance also suppressed the willingness of some speculators to enter the market for a short time, making their performance cautious. Close to delivery, rising water performance is still limited, next week after the month may be even more difficult to make a difference. In the afternoon, due to the downward adjustment of the market price, the market inquiry was slightly positive, so the holder raised the price slightly, but the overall transaction was still relatively light. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 20-30 yuan / ton, good copper reported 40-50 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 4890049000 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: driven by the improvement of macro mood, Lun aluminum showed a strong performance at the beginning of the morning trading, jumping high in the morning at 1775 yuan / ton, and then slowly testing and rising to the highest point of 1782.5 US dollars / ton at the end of the sub-plate. Due to the high pressure above, Lun aluminum continued to be blocked, and then fell back to around 1778 US dollars / ton. As of 17:30, the aluminum plate leaked at 1774 US dollars / ton, up 3.50 US dollars / ton. Up 0.2%, closed in the small negative line, the center of gravity floated compared with yesterday, daily KDJ third line up. Today, Lmeren aluminum warehouse storage increased by more than 30,000 hands, it can be seen that the short-term market confidence in the near future aluminum price is stronger than the long-term, it is expected to maintain the range volatility in the evening, continue to pay attention to the November retail sales data of the United States and the speech of the key leaders of the European Central Bank.

The Shanghai aluminum main force 2002 contract opened in the morning at 13890 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day in the 13885 yuan / ton narrow shock, and then began to break away from the daily average line all the way up shock climbing, long positions in the process of aluminum prices rushed to a daily high of 13950 yuan / ton, afternoon basically around 13935 yuan / ton range shock, high and low price difference within 20 yuan / ton, closed at 13945 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.29%. Trading volume increased by 75298 hands to 169000 hands, position increased by 17022 hands to 238000 hands, long position mainly, closed in the small positive line, the center of gravity floating compared with yesterday, located above almost all moving averages, daily KDJ three lines up, MACD red line slightly elongated. Thanks to Trump's Twitter comments, the macro atmosphere improved, the stock market rallied, the commodity market also improved, aluminum funds rose slightly today, and the spread with the 2001 contract narrowed to around 20 yuan / tonne. The volatility is expected to remain strong in the evening.

Aluminum in the early afternoon range shock, the second stage of trading floating. Spot quotation in Shanghai and Wuxi market is concentrated in 13990-14000 yuan / ton, aluminum rises in the late 10:30, market transaction price begins to concentrate in 1402014040 yuan / ton, near the flat water, nearly 50 yuan / ton lower than yesterday's price, trading between traders is active in the morning, as the aluminum price rises, the quotation of the holder is strong, the heat of the transaction has declined, although there are also the quotation between 14040yuan and 14060 yuan / ton after 10: 30, the price of the spot quotation of Shanghai and Wuxi market is between 1399014000 yuan / ton and 14040-14040 yuan / ton, and the price of the market is 1402014040 yuan / ton. However, this offer is too high almost no transaction, Hangzhou afternoon spot price is concentrated in 14010-14030 yuan / ton. Aluminum prices fell today, the shipper shipments are not much, and relatively high prices, the enthusiasm of middlemen to receive goods is significantly higher than the previous two days, the market showed a state of less and more. Downstream delivery today is also better than the previous two days, mainly due to the fall in aluminum prices superimposed weekend stock demand. The overall transaction in East China is better today. In the afternoon, aluminum maintained fluctuations in the range, the holder quoted around 14050 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 1929 US dollars / ton, in Asia, Lun lead basically along the daily average shock, into Europe, Lun lead continued concussion market, only the amplitude showed a small expansion, as of 16: 23, Lun lead temporarily closed at 1945 US dollars / ton, up 17 yuan / ton, up 0.88%. Lun lead temporary barefoot small positive line, along the 5-day moving average, and successfully stood on the 20-day moving average, the trend is stronger than the inner market, but still need to be careful, because the upward direction of Lun lead is mostly driven by the reduction of positions, and the contango structure of LME lead 0-3 contract has not been significantly narrowed, and its persistence remains to be observed.

Within days, Shanghai lead 2001 contract opened at 15290 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, part of the short left the market, pushing up the Shanghai lead center of gravity to 15310 yuan / ton, and once hit 15330 yuan / ton, but the 20-day moving average pressure is strong, Shanghai lead pressure fell back to the daily moving average near the operation, near the close, some of the bulls chose to leave, Shanghai lead straight down, finally closed at 15255 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, down 0.13%, position reduced by 3850 to 57342 hands. Shanghai lead closed at the bottom of the 5-day moving average, but it is still firmly subject to the 20-day moving average, taking into account the increase in inventory of nearly 9000 tons in the previous period of the week, as well as the small expansion of the primary / regeneration price spread, the kinetic energy of the 20-day moving average at the Shanghai lead station at night is limited.

Shanghai market southern lead 15455-15485 yuan / ton, the 1912 contract flat water to rise to 30 yuan / ton quotation; other brands quote less. Near delivery, lead spot market circulation supply is more scarce, at the same time downstream on-demand procurement, in which recycled refined lead to maintain discount delivery, bulk single market trading activity is still OK.

Guangdong market South China lead 15505 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up to 30 yuan / ton quotation; Mongolia from 15475-15525 / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead to water 50 yuan / ton; Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters to long single transaction, there are few single quotations in the market. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 15475-15495 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price of flat water and rising water 20 yuan / ton (traders); Guangxi Hechi south 15345 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 130 yuan / ton. Jiang copper is 15500 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net is 25 yuan / ton, the small factory in Yunnan is 15225 yuan / ton, and the average price of SMM1# lead is 250 yuan / ton. Lead prices rebounded, refinery shipments slowed down, and downstream purchasing sentiment improved.

Zinc: the zinc jump in Geneva opened at US $2272.5 / ton, and the trend of zinc in Geneva is relatively stable today. At the beginning of the session, Lun Zinc briefly descended, the center of gravity sank to $2265 / tonne line, then, Lun Zinc slightly upward, breaking through the daily average pressing, the overall operation of $2270 / tonne above. As of 16: 20, Lun Zinc was up $16.50, or 0.73 per cent, at $2276.5 a tonne. Lun Zinc recorded three Lianyang, break through 5 and 10 EMA adhesion suppression, attached shadow line 20 EMA suppression strength, KDJ index upward diffusion, MACD red column elongated, superimposed LME zinc inventory recorded a continuous decline, showing that Lun Zinc may have a certain upward space, pay attention to the upper 20 line pressure level at night.

The intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2002 contract opened at 18075 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc went down slightly and probed as low as 17970 yuan / ton. The lower 5 and 20 moving averages gave Shanghai zinc strong support. Shanghai zinc returned to rise, and the center of gravity moved up to about 18100 yuan / ton. then Shanghai zinc showed a narrow concussion trend in the horizontal market, and finally closed up 18100 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton from yesterday's close, up 0.25%. Trading volume increased 18642 hands to 354000 hands. Positions increased by 1044 to 218000. Shanghai zinc recorded two Lianyang, under pressure running under the Brin Road middle track, good news from the Sino-US trade agreement, the weakening of the US index and the general decline in social inventory this week, indicating that Shanghai zinc storage is certain to take action, and pay attention to the suppression of the Brin Road middle track at night.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18550-18570 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18560-18580 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 180-190 yuan / ton in December, that of Shuangyan was 190-200 yuan / ton in December, and that of zinc was 18480-18500 yuan / ton. The first trading period, the first shock uplink, the market basic to the net average price quotation, the spot rise paste water quotation is less, after approaching the first time period closing stage, the holder to the 1912 contract rises 170-180 yuan / ton; enters the second period, the zinc price high shock, the spot rises the water to continue to climb, the ordinary brand zinc basically follows the market offer to the 1912 contract rises 180-190 yuan / ton; Zinc price high shock, spot quotation continues to rise high water, the market supply is less, the holder does not cover the goods; in addition, with the spot price continues to rise, wait and see downstream today, a small number of just need to purchase.

Ningbo Hualian, Yongchang, Huize and other transactions in 18600-18650 yuan / ton, Hualian, Yongchang, Huize reported 450-470 yuan / ton in January. In the first trading period, the zinc price fluctuated at the beginning of the session, and the holder kept the water rising. In January, the price of zinc rose by 450 yuan / ton, and the willingness to receive goods downstream was poor, and there were few transactions. In the second trading period, the zinc price continued to fluctuate, the spot market rose slightly, and the January price rose 450470 yuan / ton, with a slight improvement in the transaction. Social inventory continued to decline this week, Ningbo inventory is only 1000 tons, but today there are Hualian goods, has not yet entered the warehouse, about 1000 tons. Today, traders raise the water to ship goods, however, due to fewer shippers, transactions are still general; downstream Ningbo high underwater, poor willingness to receive goods, some enterprises pull goods from the Shanghai area. The water in Ningbo is 6080 yuan per ton higher than that in Shanghai today.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18330-18400 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on the Shanghai zinc 2001 contract rose 190-200 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 170 yuan / ton yesterday to 180 yuan / ton. As delivery approaches today, the trading market is very active. In the morning, the quotation of the holder is near the flat water of the contract, the shipment is very smooth, the consignee is actively rushing to deliver the goods, the circulation of goods in the market is scarce, and the holder is in the position to raise the price to 10-20 yuan / ton for the December contract, and 200 yuan / ton for the January contract. Enter the second trading period, the market transaction is basically stable in the month flat to 10 yuan / ton, the trade market is still more active, superimposed downstream every weekend also has a certain need to buy goods, overall, the spot market trading is active today, significantly better than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18330-18400 yuan / ton near.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18330-18400 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on the Shanghai zinc 2001 contract rose 190-200 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 170 yuan / ton yesterday to 180 yuan / ton. As delivery approaches today, the trading market is very active. In the morning, the quotation of the holder is near the flat water of the contract, the shipment is very smooth, the consignee is actively rushing to deliver the goods, the circulation of goods in the market is scarce, and the holder is in the position to raise the price to 10-20 yuan / ton for the December contract, and 200 yuan / ton for the January contract. Enter the second trading period, the market transaction is basically stable in the month flat to 10 yuan / ton, the trade market is still more active, superimposed downstream every weekend also has a certain need to buy goods, overall, the spot market trading is active today, significantly better than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18330-18400 yuan / ton near.

Tin: after the Lunxi electronic disk opened at $17215 / ton today, the center of gravity of the Asian session rose slightly to $17250 / ton and fell back under pressure. After the opening of the European market, the initial downward trend continued to $17085 / ton and then bottomed out. As of 19: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was $17190 / ton, showing a small negative line, and the upper part of the entity was under pressure at the 5-day moving average. the support below Lunxi is expected to be near the integer level of $17000 / ton. Tonight, we can take a look at the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in November (%).

Shanghai main tin 2001 contract last night after the opening of 140650 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the market affected by the impact of the long closing position quickly fell to a daily low of 139750 yuan / ton after the short reduction, Shanghai tin bottom rebounded to a concussive upward trend, almost wiping out the previous decline. After the opening of 140550 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, it continued to show a wave-band downward trend affected by the long reduction, and finally closed at 139800 yuan / ton, down 910 yuan / ton, or 0.65%. The trading volume was 10206 hands, the position was 20750 hands, and the number was reduced by 628 hands. Today, Shanghai tin overall showed a downward trend under pressure, closed in a negative line, the physical part of the bottom is located near the 10-day moving average. It is expected that the lower support of tin in Shanghai is located in the early horizontal plate interval on the track around 139500 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 138500-141000 yuan / ton. Downstream enterprises continue to wait and see and remain weak, while downstream enterprises and traders receive relatively few goods today. The transaction atmosphere in Shanghai-tin spot market is weak. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rising water 800 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word flat water-discount 500yuan / ton, small brand discount 1000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni opened at $14060 / tonne today, fell slightly to $13955 / tonne at the start of the day, then rebounded and rose, fluctuating upward all the way up, fluctuating slightly at $14050 / tonne at midday. In the afternoon, Lunni continued to pull up, breaking through the $14100 / ton line, reaching a high of $14110 / tonne. As of 16: 20, it was reported at $14115 / tonne, up $110 / tonne, or 0.79%, from the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 6712 hands to 2892 hands, with a position of 303000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small balcony today, the K column as a whole stood above the 20-day moving average, gradually away from the 5 / 10 moving average below, this night to focus on whether Lunni can stand at the position of $14100 / ton, while paying attention to the resistance near the middle track of the upper Boll line of $14300 / ton. Tonight we are looking at the monthly rate of retail sales in November and the monthly rate of business inventory in October in the United States.

Shanghai Nickel 2002 opened today at 110200 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the market slightly down to 109500 yuan / ton line, followed by pressure of 110000 yuan / ton line, in the daily moving average above the interval of a small concussion operation. In the afternoon, the early Shanghai nickel continued the concussion trend, to 14:15, the long position, Shanghai nickel broke through 110000 yuan / ton line, then superimposed short position reduction force, Shanghai nickel touch high 111000 yuan / ton, finally closed at 110970 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day rose 1150 yuan / ton, up 1.05%, trading volume decreased by 966000 to 1.229 million hands, position volume reduced by 12000 to 339000 hands. The Shanghai Nickel 2003 contract increased its position by 9278 hands today, focusing on the backward movement of the position at a later stage. Shanghai Nickel 2002 closed at the small balcony today, still due to the short reduction force to make Shanghai nickel upward, K column break through the 20-day moving average, MACD red column lengthened, pay attention to the Shanghai nickel money platform level 113000 yuan / ton gate pressure this night, and pay attention to the game situation of long and short positions at night.

Today's SMM1# Electrolytic Nickel offer is 109500-112500 yuan / ton. Today's nickel price pressurized 20 antennas, around 110000 near the shock, compared with the beginning of the week, the increase is obvious, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2001 general discount 200 yuan / ton-discount 110000 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2001 rose 2600-2900 yuan / ton, the domestic spot discount continues to decline, but the spot transaction stimulus is limited, not as active as the beginning of the week. On the one hand, due to rising prices, demand has been suppressed, on the other hand, after part of the replenishment at the beginning of the week, there is no immediate pressure. Jinchuan quoted 112300 yuan / ton, 1200 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. Nickel prices continue to rise in the afternoon, the spot basically no transactions, all day transactions are light, not as active as the first half of the week.

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basic Metals Daily Review

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