SHANGHAI, Dec 13 (SMM) –

Copper: Three-month LME copper recovered from earlier losses to close 0.28% higher at $6,161.5/mt on Thursday. The most active SHFE 2002 contract shed 0.67% to 48,830 yuan/mt overnight. Copper prices are set to rise today, as investors await the signing of a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China and as exit polls suggested a win for the Conservatives, which should help ensure the UK’s smooth exit from the EU. Overnight trade deal reports subdued gold prices, but bolstered oil prices, which will offer support to copper prices. The ECB’s decision to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy is also positive for copper. LME copper is expected to trade between $6,140-6,200/mt today, with SHFE copper at 48,700-49,200 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen in a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of up to 40 yuan/mt, as high prices and faltering demand at year-end sideline buyers.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium crept up to its highest in nearly two weeks at $1,779.5/mt on Thursday, before it finished the trading day 0.68% stronger at $1,771.5/mt. The unwinding of short positions primarily accounted for the gains. The most traded SHFE 2002 contract slipped to a session-low of 13,850 yuan/mt overnight, before it recovered some ground to end 0.11% weaker at 13,890 yuan/mt. The Shanghai aluminium market’s overnight reaction to US President Donald Trump’s tweet that a China deal is “very close,” was underwhelming. SHFE aluminium is expected to hover between 13,800-13,950 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums are seen at 10-30 yuan/mt over the SHFE 1912 contract.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc jumped to its highest since December 2 at $2,277/mt on Thursday on reports of a US-China trade deal, before closing 1.48% higher at $2,260/mt. LME zinc has convincingly shrug off a resistance confluence of the five- and 10-day moving averages, nearing the 20-day one, and the MACD indicators are in a golden cross. Zinc stocks in LME warehouses continued to fall, decreasing 1.05% on the day. LME zinc is expected to move between $2,230-2,280/mt today amid market euphoria around a US-China trade deal and UK election. The most active SHFE 2002 contract climbed to a three-week high of 18,155 yuan/mt overnight, before it erased some gains under resistance from the middle Bollinger band, to end 0.56% higher at 18,060 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc is expected to trade between 17,800-18,200 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen higher at 150-200 yuan/mt over the SHFE 1912 contract, with trades likely to improve on pre-weekend stockpiling.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel recovered from earlier losses to close 1.19% higher at $14,010/mt on Thursday, around its highest in two weeks and the 20-day moving average. Resistance at the 20-day moving average at $14,000/mt will come under scrutiny today. The most traded SHFE 2002 contract fluctuated to end 0.2% firmer at 110,040 yuan/mt overnight. Resistance was strong at the 20-day moving average.

Lead: Three-month LME lead on Thursday took a breather after its recent rally, easing 0.31% to $1,928/mt, as resistance lay at the 20-day moving average. The most active SHFE 2001 contract hovered to end 0.1% firmer at 15,290 yuan/mt overnight. SHFE lead has risen for seven consecutive days, but the gains were limited and primarily driven by short-covering, raising questions over the sustainability of this rally.

Tin: Three-month LME tin dropped to a low of $16,850/mt on Thursday, before it rallied to close 0.55% higher at $17,220/mt. Support is seen at $17,000/mt. The unwinding of long positions sent the most traded SHFE 2001 contract to a low of 139,750 yuan/mt in early trade overnight, before short-covering helped the contract recoup much of the losses to end 0.3% weaker at 140,600 yuan/mt. Support is seen at 140,000 yuan/mt.