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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on December 6

iconDec 6, 2019 21:15
Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on December 6

Copper: today, Yapanlun copper opened at 5894.5 US dollars / ton, the center of gravity of the sub-session basically maintained at 5894 US dollars / ton, until the end of the sub-plate, copper prices rose in a straight line, due to the easing of trade sentiment, copper prices smoothly stood at the $5900 mark. After entering the European market, copper prices did not end, all the way up the performance of shock, bulls took the initiative to increase positions, copper prices rose to a high of $5931.5 / ton. As of 17: 30, Lun Copper closed up 0.41% at $5930.5 per tonne, with the dollar index at 97.412 and US crude oil at $58.37 a barrel. In the evening, we focused on the release of non-agricultural data in the United States. Although the recent performance of small non-agricultural data released by the United States has disappointed the market, non-agricultural expectations are improving, confirming that the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stressed the moderate caliber of employment, and that the dollar is expected to rebound, putting some pressure on high copper prices. At present, there are 3 Lianyang, the overall technical support is strong. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun copper can effectively hold on to the $5920 / tonne position. Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 2001 opened at 47250 yuan / ton in the morning, and after the opening, the center of gravity moved up to 47300 yuan / ton above the daily average. after maintaining stability for a short time, the center of gravity dropped slightly to 47280 yuan / ton at noon. After opening in the afternoon, the center of gravity dropped 47250 yuan / ton, and then quickly pulled back to 47300 yuan / ton high and maintained stability until the end of the day, closing at 47320 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan / ton, up 0.34%. Shanghai copper main contract day reduction of 4008 hands, to 189000 hands, mainly for short reduction; trading volume decreased 9188 hands to 68000 hands; Shanghai copper index positions decreased 1304 hands to 518000 hands; trading volume decreased 15000 hands to 181000 hands. During the day, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper moved up slightly, mainly due to the continuation of the 300 billion MLF operation by the domestic central bank today, with the operating interest rate maintained at 3.25%, reflecting the central bank's determination to continue to implement a prudent monetary policy in the process of counter-cyclical adjustment, maintain reasonable liquidity, the market atmosphere tends to be positive, and the Shanghai copper center of gravity has also been slightly boosted up. Within days, Shanghai copper closed in positive technical performance, while the night of the United States heavy non-agricultural data and OPEC production reduction decision will be announced to test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand firm and rise 47400 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 140 ~ 180 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47350 yuan / ton ~ 47390 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47360 yuan / ton ~ 47400 yuan / ton. The center of gravity of copper in Shanghai period rose to maintain stability in the first line of 47200 yuan / ton. Spot market, yesterday afternoon has opened the situation of rapid exchange of high water, this morning the holder tentatively quoted in the rising water 170 ~ 180 yuan / ton, but in exchange for is eager to gush out of the supply and the willingness to exchange, the market has no willingness to accept the goods, so the market opened the downward model, Pingshui copper all the way down to 140 yuan / ton still has room to depress prices, good copper down to 150 to 160 yuan / ton, no one to trade, the market will open the downward model, Pingshui copper all the way down to 140 yuan / ton still has room to press prices, good copper down to 150 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton, no one to trade. Wet method with the market down to 60 ~ 80 yuan / ton. Copper futures remained on the strong side, downstream buying was suppressed, the speculative activity of the trade market this week basically came to an end, rising water and then difficult to rush again, it is inevitable that high levels will fall back, but inventories will still be in a state of decline, and they will face delivery next week. Therefore, even if the rising water is lowered, it will be limited, but it is difficult to arouse the speculative enthusiasm of traders again in the process of giving up the increase. Afternoon quotation performance again pour down, as a result of high prices led to a significant reduction in market acceptance, taking into account the entry into next week, spot quotation to follow the previous delivery level, there will be a significant downward adjustment, so the holder takes advantage of the rising water to actively ship the goods, take the initiative to lower the offer to attract the market to close the deal. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 120-130 yuan / ton, good copper reported 130-140 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the 47320-47380 yuan / ton range.

 

Aluminum: aluminum March contract morning opening price of $1749 / ton, Asian trading session narrow volatility, the end of the day slightly higher, but to the European trading session quickly fell back, continued to fall unilaterally, as of 19:05 Beijing time trading price of $1737 / ton, so far Lun aluminum fell for four consecutive days and vomited all the gains in the first two weeks, the lower $1730 / ton is still supported. Today, Lun aluminum stocks fell 975 tons, but during the week accumulates 12650 tons, the fundamental weakening is basically reflected in the disk trend, expected to run in the evening shock at 1730 $1750 / ton.

Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract morning opening price of 13890 yuan / ton, after the opening of the long position to leave the market, after the long low to buy, the market briefly rebounded, but the long confidence is insufficient, the follow-up to the long net outflow, unilateral decline, the bottom hit 13835 yuan / ton, a small amount of short closing, finally closed at 13840 yuan / ton. Positions fell 6064 hands to 196000 on the day, while prices fell 90 yuan, or 0.65 per cent. Today, Shanghai aluminum fell below 13900 support, below the lack of motivation to buy, short one after another profit-taking but the amount of open position is small, the price support is weak. At present, funds once again run away from the fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate next week, expected to run between 13800 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, aluminum fell back before noon of the month. Shanghai and Wuxi market spot quotation concentrated in 14050-14070 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's price dropped 60 yuan / ton, to the surface water 40-50 yuan / ton, spot water also slightly lower than yesterday, Hangzhou spot price transaction concentrated in 14100-14110 yuan / ton, Hangzhou holder in the hands of the supply is not much, the quotation is relatively strong. Trading between Guangdong and tin traders was more active, but the transaction heat fell back after 11: 00, the market atmosphere gradually calmed down, and the willingness of downstream manufacturers to receive goods today was significantly higher than that of the previous two days, mainly due to the recognition of today's falling prices and the existence of stock demand over the weekend. The overall transaction in East China is better today. Afternoon aluminum sinking, the holder quoted between 14030-14050 yuan / ton, on the surface of the water around 40 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream.

 

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at US $1902.5 / ton. In the Asian period, Lun lead basically consolidated around the daily average line, and entered the European period. The US index moved along the downward channel, boosting the overall strength of the outer disk non-ferrous metals. Lun lead once climbed to US $1917.5 / ton, as of 16: 07, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $1909.5 / ton, up 3.50 yuan / ton, or 0.18%. Lun lead temporary barefoot small positive line, 1900 US dollars / ton integer gate there is a strong support, short differences here, horizontal market may continue.

Within days, Shanghai lead 2001 contract opened at 15080 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead all to the daily average line to support the bottom shock, near the close, part of the short leave, Shanghai lead slightly upward, finally closed at 15120 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up 0.27%, position reduced by 624 hands to 75614 hands. Shanghai lead closed bald small positive line, hovering in the vicinity of Wanwu, but the technical side is still short market, there is still the possibility of continuing to explore.

Shanghai market southern lead 15370-15380 yuan / ton, 1912 contract water 40-50 yuan / ton quotation; other brands offer very little. Lead prices remained low, downstream risk aversion slightly slower, and coincided with Friday, storage enterprises purchase on demand, and because of the small supply of goods in circulation in the trade market, some traders also take the initiative to seek the source of goods, the trading atmosphere in the bulk order market has relatively improved.

Guangdong market South China lead 15295 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 30 yuan / ton quotation; Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters to long single transaction mainly; Jinli, Wanyang 15325-15350 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 25 yuan / ton quotation (traders supply); lead prices continue to shock market, downstream wait-and-see, some enterprises buy on demand on Friday, the overall transaction slightly warmed up. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 15325-15345 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price flat water and rising water 20 yuan / ton (traders); Guangxi Hechi south 15195 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 130 yuan / ton. Jiang copper is 15350 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net is 25 yuan / ton, the small factory in Yunnan is 15075 yuan / ton, and the average price of SMM1# lead is 250 yuan / ton. Lead price low operation, refineries to long single trading, downstream today's low just need to buy, the overall transaction month-on-month improvement.

 

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2234 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, Zinc rose rapidly and moved up to US $2245 / ton. subsequently, Zinc showed a narrow concussion in the banner, with a concussion range of no more than US $3 / tonne. Entering the European trading session, the US index weakened and boosted zinc prices. Lun Zinc rose again, breaking the above 10-day moving average and touching US $2265 / ton. Tail Zinc fell slightly until 16: 59. Lun Zinc was up $21.50, or 0.96 per cent, at $2260.5 a tonne. Geneva zinc turned negative and positive, the pressure running below the 10-day moving average, the MACD green column narrowed again, superimposed LME zinc inventory continued to decline slightly, indicating that Lun zinc temporarily obtained a certain action energy, pay attention to the 10-day line suppression at night.

The intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2001 contract opened at 17970 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc quickly pulled up, the center of gravity rose to 18060 yuan / ton, then under the suppression of 18100 yuan / ton integer level above, Shanghai zinc pressure fell, the whole shock operation around 18020 yuan / ton, the end of the day continued the trend of narrow finishing, closed up 18025 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton from yesterday's close, up 0.25%, trading volume decreased 43088 hands to 164000 hands. Positions were reduced by 9090 to 134000. Within days, Shanghai zinc received four Lianyang, the operating platform moved up to Wanba pass, KDJ index spread upward, MACD green column turned red, indicating that Shanghai zinc storage has a certain upward force, Shanghai zinc or strong operation at night.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 1849018530 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18510-18550 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 260-270 yuan / ton in December, that of Shuangyan was 280-290 yuan / ton in December, and that of zinc was 18420-18460 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the Shanghai zinc shock went up at the beginning of the session, and the spot rising water continued to be depressed, with 320-330 yuan / ton for the 1912 contract and 320-330 yuan / ton for the 1912 contract. However, the transaction was depressed, the spot rising water continued to decline, and the 1912 contract rose 280-290 yuan / ton. Enter the second period, zinc prices fall back, holders continue to ship at low prices, spot water again lower, ordinary brand zinc basic with the 1912 contract rose to 260-270 yuan / ton, but the overall transaction light, receiving more cautious; zinc prices continue to rebound trend, spot rising water quickly down, market shipping sentiment is higher, but downstream enterprises due to rising zinc prices, procurement sentiment is not high, more wait-and-see; In the trade market, the supply of zinc ingots continues to flow out, spot rising water accelerated decline, in addition, with the internal and external price repairs, some of the imported zinc has recently circulated in the market.

Ningbo Hualian, Yongchang and other transactions in 18530-18600 yuan / ton, the December reported water 300-350 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, after the zinc price rose at the beginning of the session, the high level fluctuated, the holder lowered the water, and some of the holders said that they were out of stock. They reported a rise of 350 yuan / ton in December. The willingness to receive goods downstream was poor, and the transaction was poor. In the second trading period, the zinc price continued to fluctuate, the spot market rose again, and reported 300 yuan / ton in December, but there was little transaction; and in the second trading period, the zinc price continued to fluctuate, the spot market rose again, and the water rose by 300 yuan / ton in December. Due to yesterday's zinc uplink after the market shipment will be strong, release volume, Ningbo market traders yesterday afternoon down rising water shipment, but the transaction is poor. Today zinc continues to rise, rising further downward, and most Ningbo traders have said that they are out of stock, superimposed at the beginning of the week transactions are better, downstream has been prepared for the case, today's poor willingness to receive goods, leading to further weakening of the spot market transactions. Today, Ningbo compared with Shanghai Shengshui 30-40 yuan / ton, the price difference narrowed.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18330-18430 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on the Shanghai zinc 2001 contract rose 340-360 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than the Shanghai stock market discount narrowed from 200 yuan / ton yesterday to 120 yuan / ton. The disk surface returns to rise, the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the first trading session, the market quotation is concentrated in the average price level to the average price rise of 10 yuan / ton, the holder who has not quoted the contract, the transaction is OK. Entering the second trading period, the market transaction focused on the January contract rose 340 yuan / ton, with the monthly spread widened from 200 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton, the holder saw the trend, lifted the water to the January contract rose 360 yuan / ton near, the surface fell back slightly, the market turnover is good. Overall, today's Guangdong market trade market warming, downstream willingness to receive goods weaker, the overall transaction slightly better than the day before. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18330-18430 yuan / ton near.

Tianjin market zinc ingots traded in 18380-20090 yuan / ton (high price including Huludao), of which the mainstream brand transaction in 1838018550 / ton, the 1912 contract rose 170-300 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than the Shanghai stock market discount held stable at 80 yuan / ton. Today, refinery shipments are normal, the overall circulation of goods is relatively loose. The high price mainstream brand source quotation concentrates on the 12 contract to rise the water 270300 yuan / ton near. The general mainstream brand source quotation concentrates on the 12 contract to raise the water 170-220 yuan / ton or so. Zinc prices today strong volatility, holders lower water expectations to boost the downstream pick-up strength, but the downstream pick-up is still cautious, boosted by the demand for replenishment over the weekend, today's transactions are slightly better than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang and other transactions in 18380-18550 yuan / ton near.

 

Tin: today, after the opening of the Lunxi electronic disk of US $16800 / ton, the Asian trading session remained light and generally maintained in the horizontal arrangement near the opening price. The center of gravity rose slightly at the end of the session. After the opening of the European market, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, it rose all the way up, climbing to $16945 / ton and then falling back under pressure. As of 18: 30, the latest price of Lunxi was $16875 / ton, showing a positive line, located above all moving averages. resistance above Lunxi is expected to be near the integer level of $17000 / ton. Tonight, we can take a look at the changes in non-farm payrolls after the November season (10,000), the unemployment rate in November (%), and the initial consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in December.

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 139000 yuan / ton, the overall maintenance of the daily average of 139200 yuan / ton near the shock finishing. After the opening of 138970 yuan / ton in early trading today, it fell to an intraday low of 138800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session. Affected by the reduction of short positions, it hit the bottom and rebounded all the way up. Finally, it closed at 139210 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume was 10212 hands, and the position volume was 22276 hands, a decrease of 298 hands. Today, Shanghai tin overall maintained a high consolidation, the center of gravity than yesterday to maintain stability. Close with the small positive line, the physical part of the lower part of the 5-day moving average support, the lower shadow line by 10 days of support, Shanghai tin resistance is expected to be around 139500 yuan / ton, the lower support is around 138000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 137500-139500 yuan / ton. Real demand was weak on Friday, with a small number of traders buying cautiously during the day and most downstream companies weak. The overall transaction atmosphere of Shanghai tin spot market is slightly cool. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rising water 600-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word flat water near, small brand discount 700 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: Lenny Asia opened at $13280 a tonne today, with the overall center of gravity fluctuating slightly around the daily moving average before noon. In the afternoon, Lunni was above the daily moving average, rising and continuing into European time. At 16: 00, Lunni briefly dived near the daily moving average, then quickly returned to the first line of narrow shock operation of $13400 / tonne, reporting at $13430 / tonne at 17: 10, up $150 / tonne, or 1.13 per cent, from the previous day's settlement price, with trading volume down 6104 hands to 2714 hands and 294000 positions. Lunni temporarily closed in a small balcony, standing above $13200 / ton, above the 5-day moving average, but still need to pay attention to the 5-day moving average resistance in the evening to see if the $13400 / ton level can be stabilized. This evening, we focused on the number of non-farm payrolls (10,000) after the November season, the unemployment rate in November, and the initial consumer confidence index at the University of Michigan in December.

Shanghai Nickel 2002 contract opened today at 105440 yuan / ton, before noon, Shanghai nickel overall center of gravity around the daily average line 105600 yuan / ton horizontal shock finishing; In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel strengthened slightly, the center of gravity moved up, fluctuated slightly near the 5-day moving average of 106100 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 106240 yuan / ton, up 2010 yuan / ton, or 1.93%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume increased by 869000 hands to 2.511 million hands, position decreased by 28000 hands to 383000 hands. Today, the Shanghai Nickel 2002 contract capital outflow reached 202 million yuan, part of the short profit reduced warehouse departure, Shanghai nickel closed in the Yangzhu, the lower 104000 yuan / ton is supported, the upper 5-day moving average level faces resistance, pay attention to the increase and decrease of long and short positions at night and the upper 5-day moving average level resistance.

In the spot market, the price of electrolytic nickel today is 107050-109050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 109000 yuan / ton, up 1200 yuan / ton from yesterday. With Lunni stabilizing at $13200 / ton support, Shanghai Nickel also showed signs of stabilizing for the time being, with the main contract coming out of the positive line in the morning, approaching from 105000 to 106000. Russian nickel rose water slightly lower, the average price from 1600 yuan / ton to 1450 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel rising water low up 200 yuan, high flat, for 5200-5500 yuan / ton. The supply of negotiable goods in the market including nickel beans has been supplemented, the rising water is too high, no one is interested in it, and the quotation of the cardholder is also basically in line with the market, and the overall transaction activity of the market is still OK. The industry believes that under the Shanghai nickel Back structure, traders will face greater cost pressure after moving their positions from 1912 to 2001 this week, while the release of downstream demand is relatively normal at present. Most traders do not have too much inventory, so they are reluctant to ship at a loss, and the rising water remains strong. In the afternoon, the disk continued to rise, the Russian nickel rose water has a small drop, the mainstream transaction center of gravity 1300-1400 yuan / ton; Jinchuan rising water is basically stable, the transaction center of gravity is about 5200 yuan / ton.

 

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