SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2019.12.2-2019.12.5)

SMM, 5 Dec:

This week the dollar index continued to fall, due to this week the euro zone and the United States ADP data did not anticipate, the global trade situation is worrying, the non-ferrous metal strength differentiation, the nickel still falls unceasingly, Lunni falls directly close to ten thousand three levels, Shanghai nickel week one-day decline once more than 4%, probs lower 103300 yuan, the spot rises the water low level also to no avail, SMMI.Ni week drops 4.62%, still leads down the non-ferrous market. Lead continued to decline, Lun lead nearly $1900 pass, Shanghai lead close to the ten thousand five levels, spot in the smelter traders together to raise water to sell, the decline was slightly better than futures, SMMI.Pb week fell 2.23%. Zinc rebounded this week, Shanghai zinc probe rebounded to return to the top of 10, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, Aluminum stocks maintained a continuous sharp decline, Shanghai aluminum rushed up nearly ten thousand four levels after leading to a large number of long positions left the market to return to the rise. The spot rally was also receded by the narrowing of the monthly spread, with SMMI.Al edging up 0.57 per cent during the week. Copper prices remained stable, Lun copper remained stable near US $5900, Shanghai copper held on to 47000 yuan / ton, and then the height of flushing was limited. Spot prices rose day by day under the guidance of traders receiving goods, and SMMI.Cu rose 0.16 per cent during the week. Lunxi remained strong, Shanghai tin was stable, weak spot demand was difficult to boost spot prices, and SMMI.Sn was flat. Friday night's non-farm data will guide the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting in December, while the global trade dispute is difficult to resolve, and the general strike in France is likely to worsen the euro zone economy. The global political and economic struggle is not optimistic, and the dollar will be more likely to recover from low levels after falling this week, suppressing nonferrous metals. Next week and close to delivery, after the last delivery of the year, the market is about to enter the annual settlement, the market activity will gradually decline, so next week the overall basic metal will still be at risk, pay attention to the short force distribution of each item metal, the receiving situation before the spot will also come to an end one after another, the spot rising water is easy to fall according to its own structure price difference before delivery.

Copper: this week's low copper probe rebounded. At the beginning of the week, as the global trade situation fermented again, the United States launched another tariff crackdown on the European Union, France, and so on, and Sino-US trade was also worried about the Hong Kong-related border bill. At the same time, coupled with the poor performance of economic data such as the US manufacturing industry, the national strike in France caused interference to the European economy, and the market was once again worried about macroeconomic performance. Lun copper fell below its 40-day moving average and 60-day moving average support from a high of 5908.5 at the beginning of the week, probing its lowest point of $5806 a tonne during the week. Then, near the weekend, the Ministry of Commerce made a positive statement on the Sino-US negotiations, and trade optimism revived, while the US ADP data fell far short of expectations, the US index fell to a low within nearly a month, the superposition market expectations for OPEC production increased, and Lun Copper, boosted by multiple positive factors, returned to the low level above the US $5900 / ton mark, up 0.7 per cent on a weekly basis. At present, Lun copper collecting yang, has stood firm Brin middle track, the technical index is on the high side. This week, Lun copper mainly showed a long increase in positions, the position increased by more than 3, 000 hands, to 297000 hands.

This week, Shanghai copper also showed that it first suppressed and then rose. At the beginning of the week, because the domestic Caixin manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations and the market mood was optimistic, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper remained stable at 47300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Subsequently, due to the escalation of the global trade situation, the market risk aversion sentiment heated up again. The main force of Shanghai copper continuously fell from a high of 47300 yuan / ton to the lowest point of 46910 yuan / ton in the low week, and closed at the cross star line. Subsequently, due to the good performance of PMI data of domestic Caixin service industry and the 300 billion MLF operation carried out by the domestic central bank over the weekend, it once again reflected the prudent attitude of domestic monetary policy in counter-cyclical adjustment, boosted the low level of Shanghai copper rebounded and returned to above 47300 yuan / ton, re-standing on a number of recent moving averages, and the technology was supported by Shanghai copper. Shanghai copper main contract 2001 weekly position decreased by nearly 22000 hands to 189000 hands, mainly for short positions. The weekly position of the Shanghai copper index increased by 954 hands to 518000 hands; the position obviously moved back to the 2002 contract, and the main force will complete the month exchange next week.

On the spot side, spot quotations rose sharply this week. In the environment of continuous loss of imported copper, the source of imported copper circulation maintained a tight trend, especially the high popularity of flat copper and the high willingness of traders to receive goods. In addition, at the beginning of the week, copper prices fell below the 47000 integer level to attract active replenishment downstream, buying and upgrading. The holder took the opportunity to raise his quotation, from 90 yuan / ton to 190 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. With the recovery of the disk price, the acceptance of the high rising water in the spot market has gradually decreased, and the buying interest has been suppressed by the high copper price and the rising water. At the same time, under the obvious decrease in the enthusiasm for trade speculation, the holder has begun to take the initiative to reduce the rising water to cash. On Friday, the spot price has been adjusted down to 140-160 yuan / ton, and there is still room for price pressure, and there is still room for caution.

Aluminum: Zhou Nailun aluminum showed a high falling trend. On Monday, the opening price of Lunlun Aluminum was $1763 / ton, as the euro zone economic data was better than that of the United States, the dollar weakened, and Lunlun Aluminum, affected by the stimulus of economic recovery in Europe and the release of space from the US dollar, rushed up to US $1795 / tonne. On Tuesday, Lunlun aluminum inventories expanded, daily positions increased by 4000 tons, and Lun aluminum fell back from high levels, giving up almost all the gains the day before. Long positions continued to decline from Wednesday to Friday, Lun aluminum fell continuously, and inventories increased by more than 10, 000 tons on Thursday. The fundamentals and disk surface tend to weaken. Zhou Nelun Aluminium's position fell 18000 hands to 747000 hands, down $21.50, or 1.22 per cent, to $1738.5 a tonne. Lun aluminum 0-3 is still in the small rising water, LME inventory increase is still the existence of disk pressure, Lun aluminum technical indicators still show that the interval shock pattern is difficult to break. Zhou Lun aluminum shock is expected to run between US $1730 and US $1780.

During the week, the Shanghai aluminum main contract 2001 was raised first and then suppressed. On Monday, the opening price was 13885 yuan / ton. Due to the sharp drop in aluminum ingot inventory of 35000 tons per ton in the half week, the long position increased by 6638 hands, rising 65 yuan / ton in a single day. On Tuesday, the disk continued to show weakness. After touching 13995 above, it was blocked, and nearly 35000 parts of the long position left the market. The central aluminum price was basically maintained at 13900 yuan / ton between 13900 yuan / ton and 14000 yuan / ton, limited up and down, and the inventory data were released on Thursday. Continued decline of 15000 tons, weekly decline of 50, 000 tons, but to Cooley good has been basically cashed in at the beginning of the week, the bulls lack of confidence, Thursday and Friday a large number of closing positions left the market, especially on Friday short open, two days down 130 yuan / ton, aluminum prices fell below 13900 support level, Friday closed at 13840 yuan / ton. Zhou K line closed as a short negative line, similar to the tombstone line, mainly left the field this week, the number of positions reduced by 6390 to 196000 hands. Shanghai aluminum index position decreased by 3876 hands to about 613000 hands. Today SMM released electrolytic aluminum output of 2.935 million tons, electrolytic aluminum supply side release is not expected, the consumer side is OK, expected to go to the warehouse next week to continue, Shanghai aluminum main force 2001 contract strong shock in 13800-14000 yuan / ton.

Spot transactions are generally done this week, and the smoothness of the transaction is not as good as that of last week. Spot aluminum spindle prices this week to maintain a high shock of more than 14000 yuan / ton, less fluctuation within the week, Wuxi and Shanghai spot transaction prices in 1405014130 yuan / ton, spot water rose from 80 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton, rising water week to fall back, Hangzhou area spot transaction price concentrated in 1407014150 yuan / ton. This week, large market customers have a small number of purchases every day, but after receiving the goods for several days in a row, the trading prices among traders have fluctuated slightly earlier, and the early holders are not confident enough to ship the goods in the future. However, middlemen tend to receive goods at low prices. Both sides do not trade smoothly, inventory drops sharply near the weekend, and shippers begin to converge. Although the number of shippers has increased, the transactions between the two sides are still deadlocked. Downstream this week basically on-demand procurement, the high price is not very recognized still wait and see, the daily delivery of mediocre and not too bright, extremely less than last week, only slightly better on Friday.

Lead: the center of gravity of Lun lead has moved down to $1900 this week, and the market sentiment is more pessimistic. At the beginning of the week, Lun lead broke the platform down, the low once fell to 1890 US dollars / ton, brushing the latest two-month low, the market short sentiment was high, and there was no sign of stopping the decline on the technical side. A few days later, foreign media reported that Sino-US trade negotiations may pick up, short selling sentiment alleviated, Lun lead stopped falling but rose, temporarily recovered the 1900 integer pass, in the next few days, basically around the integer barrier narrow volatility, capital trading turned light, as of Friday, Lun lead is quoted at US $1910 / ton. Next week's macro data can be watched: the monthly CPI rate after the November season in the United States (0.4% before 0.2%), the monthly rate of Pi in November in the United States (0.4% before 0.2%), the monthly rate of industrial output in the euro area in October, and the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in November. Important overseas economic data have been released correspondingly this week, and the macro data will have a limited impact on prices in the coming week, focusing on the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. Foreign media say there are signs of a pick-up in Sino-US trade negotiations, and there are signs of a recovery in macro sentiment. However, at the same time, the United States challenges China's sovereignty in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, so there is the possibility of a collapse in Sino-US negotiations, and the future will focus on the corresponding progress. Return to Lun lead, as of Thursday, LME lead 0-3 litres of water in the discount of 15 US dollars / ton, LME lead inventory of 67125 tons, remained unchanged for four consecutive days, so from the dominant data, buy Lunlun lead does not have a strong driving force, technical level, Lun lead moving average short arrangement, the trend is still weak, combined with the above, next week lead still has the possibility of weakening. Expected operating range of $1875-1930 per tonne,

This week, Shanghai lead followed Lun lead down, once fell below the nearly three-year low, shrouded in a short atmosphere. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead closed three consecutive negative, short cumulative position 3000 hands, lead price low once reached 14970 yuan / ton, refreshing the new low since June 2016, there is no sign of a rebound in technology, a few days later, profit short chose to leave the market to watch, Shanghai lead capital trading turned weak, the amplitude did not exceed 100 yuan / ton, and finally reported at 15090 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 2.24%. Domestic release next week: China's November CPI annual rate, China's November PPI annual rate, and China's November social data, focusing on the performance of social data; Looking back at the domestic lead price, the pressure on supply has increased month-on-month. By items, under the gradual restoration of profits, the output of primary enterprises has rebounded steadily in December. Although the profits of recycling enterprises have been squeezed, there is still a profit margin of 300-500 yuan / tonne. Therefore, the month-on-month increment of refined lead production in December is under pressure. On the demand side, as this year is a warm winter, compared with the traditional replacement peak season last year, consumption is difficult to have a strong boost, but there may be a certain boost on the previous month, but it is expected that lead supply will still be surplus in December. Technically, the lead averages are arranged short, the downward trend is obvious, and there is the possibility of inertia falling, so the trend is still weak for lead. In operation, it is recommended to sell short at a high price. The expected operating range is 14850-15250 yuan / ton.

This week spot lead mainstream trading range of 15250-15550 yuan / ton. This cycle lead continues to fall the market, the primary regeneration price difference remains near the flat water, the storage battery enterprise purchases on demand; the primary lead market, because the lead price continues to decline, the refinery shipment mood is not high, mostly to the long single, the primary lead refinery continues to raise the water quotation, as of Friday, the refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to the SMM1# lead average price level water 50 yuan / ton quotation; Trade market, holders do not cover goods, spot rising water is relatively strong, as of Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to 1912 contract flat to rising water 50 yuan / ton; recycled lead, lead prices continue to weaken, enterprise production profits are squeezed, as of Friday, recycled refined lead mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 50 yuan / ton to rising water 50 yuan / ton.

Zinc: zinc returned to rise after weakening this week, showing an obvious "inverted V" type. At the beginning of the week, macro data were not as expected and LME zinc stocks increased and fell. Under how flat it was, Lun Zinc fell all the way down and explored as low as $2201 / tonne. Then, under the strong support of the downtrack of Brin Road and the integer level of US $2200 / tonne, Lun Zinc stopped falling and rose, and its operating platform moved up to US $2250 / tonne. In intraday trading, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade frictions intensified market confidence, long positions were reduced, Lun Zinc plummeted in a straight line, and at the end of the day, Lun Zinc shock upward, by Friday, Lun Zinc position reduced by 3284 hands to 240000 hands, Lun Zinc week decline of 0.94%

This week Shanghai zinc fell again in the low level, and then stopped falling back up, the whole by the lower Brin Road under the support of the operation. On Monday, dragged down by the weakening outer plate, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc 2002 was under pressure to descend to 17570 yuan / ton. From Tuesday to Friday, the continuous decline in social inventory gave the market a certain degree of confidence. Shanghai Zinc stopped falling and returned to the Wanba pass. Shanghai Zinc rose all the way to break the 5-day and 10-day EMA suppression strength out of the four Lianyang, the tail of the plate, Shanghai zinc continued to move forward, as of Friday, Shanghai zinc main force 2002 contract position increased by 38104 hands to 194000 hands, Shanghai zinc fell 0.56% during the week

Spot rising water in Shanghai market entered a "crazy moment" this week. As of Friday, ordinary brand zinc basically rose 260,270 yuan / ton to 1912 contract. Shuangyan newspaper raised water 280-290 yuan / ton, Huize market circulation is less, so high water quotation, for December water 320-350 yuan / ton. This week, due to price comparison repair, part of the zinc ingot customs declaration, SMC quoted to the 1912 contract rose 260,270 yuan / ton. This week, Shanghai spot water rose out of the "roller coaster" market. At the beginning of the week, the market supply was tight, the holder's willingness to ship was not strong, and the spot water rose rapidly, from 240-250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 480-500 yuan / ton in the middle of the week. However, it is worth noting that the purchasing mood in the middle and lower reaches of this process is generally, mainly wait-and-see, and as the rising water rises, the price difference in Shanghai and Guangdong widens to 200 yuan / ton. Some traders began to pull goods from Guangdong to Shanghai, due to these two factors, in the next few days, the market panic spread, holders began to speed up shipments, spot rising water high level fell back, as of Friday, ordinary zinc brands on 1912 contracts rose 270-280 yuan / ton. Import zinc, internal and external prices continue to repair this week, the market began to import zinc circulation, SMC reported to the 1912 contract rose 270-280 yuan / ton; into the next week, with the arrival of goods in Guangdong, it is expected that the market rising water may continue to weaken.

This week, Ningbo market domestic zinc ingots on the 1912 contract quotation rose and fell back, the market circulation brand basically reported a rise of 250-500 yuan / ton in December. At the beginning of this week, due to the further intensification of the shortage of goods in Shanghai, the volume of trade in the Ningbo market was relatively small, resulting in a strong willingness of traders to raise prices, rising water gradually rose to 500 yuan / ton, and zinc significantly weakened to break through the shock range, the downstream willingness to accept goods is stronger, trading is better. Near the weekend, zinc rebounded upward, Shanghai market volume released, and most traders in Ningbo area have been out of stock, but downstream enterprises have been prepared at the beginning of the week, resulting in rising water down to 300 yuan / ton, the trading situation is poor

The contract for zinc 2001 in Shanghai rose by 340-360 yuan / ton this week, and the discount rate in Guangdong was 120 yuan / ton higher than that in Shanghai on Friday. Zinc prices fell in the first half of the week, smelters have cherished sales, slowing the pace of delivery, leading to a slight tightening of supply circulation in the market. At the beginning of the week, Guangdong Market News raised 200 yuan / ton to the January contract, but only 50 yuan / ton to that month's contract, but since Tuesday, the spot rising water in Shanghai area has increased rapidly, resulting in the rapid expansion of the price gap between the two places from 120 yuan / ton to the highest 300 yuan / ton. The widening price gap between Shanghai and Guangdong has led some traders and smelters to ship goods to East China, which is also confirmed by the rapid decline in stocks in Guangdong. In the second half of the week, the supply of goods in Guangdong tightened again, superimposed on the spot rising and falling in Shanghai, and the rising and falling in Guangdong was relatively limited. From the highest in the week, the rising water rose 180 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton. The contract price difference between the current month and the next month fluctuated around 200 yuan / ton, and the rising water of Guangdong city to the second month contract was also maintained in the range of 340360 yuan / ton. On the whole, the Guangdong market trade market is more active this week, downstream, the disk back up superimposed rising water pull up, and last week's downstream stock volume is still sufficient, there is a certain overdraft of the willingness to receive goods this week, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, the transaction is not good. Transactions in Guangdong this week were slightly cooler than last week.

The current zinc contract in Tianjin this week rose 150-380 yuan / ton to Shanghai zinc 1912 contract, and the water in Tianjin stock market changed from 60 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market on Friday. Refinery shipments were uneven this week, but overall shipments were normal this week, and market circulation was slightly tighter than last week. This week disk near the Wanba pass low shock, downstream galvanizing plant order situation is better, but downstream some large factories shut down part of the production line for routine maintenance, superimposed downstream has been more adequate stock, resulting in the overall enthusiasm for taking goods this week is on the low side. Holders are more willing to bid this week, zinc prices weakened in the middle of the week after rising water once pulled up to 250-380 yuan / ton. This week, zinc prices show a low shock trend, some downstream think that zinc prices still have room to fall, so mainly to inquire on the sidelines. Overall, trading in Tianjin this week was flat compared with last week.

Tin: this week, Lunxi has been rocked up by the sharp fall in the dollar index and the rise in crude oil prices. As of 18: 00 on Friday, Lunxi rose as high as $16945 / tonne and fell back under pressure, the latest price being $16900 / tonne. During the week, it rose $405 / ton, or 2.46%, with a turnover of 1935 hands and a position of 17144 hands, an increase of 576 hands. The weekly level shows a positive line, the physical part is located near the 10-20 moving average, and the bottom is supported by the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line level MACD index breaks through the zero axis upward; the KDJ index is located in the overbought area and continues to show an upward trend; the K line rises from the middle track of the forest belt to the upper track and is suppressed by the upper track. At the weekly level, the fast and slow line of the MACD index opens upward below the zero axis; the KDJ index binds into a golden fork, showing an upward trend; the K line breaks through the triangular finishing interval with the positive line up, and is about to go near the middle rail of the Brin channel at the circumferential level, with only a small amount of space left above.

This week, Shanghai tin is still maintained at 138000-139500 yuan / ton around horizontal finishing, the center of gravity has risen. During the week, the long and short sides of the market left the market one after another, and the transfer phenomenon continued to exist. Some traders said they were still waiting for the gap between futures contracts to narrow before a large transfer of positions could be considered. Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract closed at 139210 yuan / ton on Friday, up 800 yuan / ton during the week, up 0.58%, trading volume 736.5 million hands, position 22276 hands, down 4510 hands. Shanghai tin 2005 contract position increased by 3004 hands per week. Within the week, the tin in Shanghai shows a small positive line, and the physical part is between the 5-day moving average and the 40-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line level MACD index has a top deviation state; the KDJ index is located in the overbought area and there is the possibility of forming a golden fork; the K line is located above the Brin channel and has not yet reached the upper rail 140500 yuan / ton. At the weekly level, the fast and slow line of the MACD index runs below the zero axis and the opening is upward; the KDJ index runs upward with a golden fork in the early stage; the K line runs to the upper rail of the triangular finishing section and is above the middle rail of Brin channel.

This week, Shanghai tin still maintained at 138000-139500 yuan / ton shock finishing, Shanghai tin spot prices overall stable, following the disk during the week there are 250 yuan / ton near the small fluctuation. As the year approaches, the enthusiasm of smelters to ship goods increases the supply of goods in circulation in the market. Traders received a small number of bargains during the week but generally maintained a more cautious attitude. In terms of downstream demand, the willingness of downstream enterprises in Shanghai to receive goods is weak, only a small number of enterprises purchase on demand, most of them maintain a wait-and-see mentality, and the overall demand in Shanghai-tin market is relatively weak. Due to downstream demand constraints, Shanghai tin spot prices are weak. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market was weak during the week. The spot price of Shanghai tin on Friday was 137500-139500 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday's price. In the aspect of discount, although there is no obvious change in the market quotation, there is a phenomenon of large discount shipment and the situation of large discount shipment is not very ideal. On Friday, the Shanghai Tin 2001 contract set Yunxi Shengshui 600-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi Pingshui near, small brand discount 700 yuan / ton near.

Nickel: Luni continued its downward trend this week. It fell for the second day in a row after hovering briefly at $13700 a tonne on Monday, falling to a five-month low of $13030 a tonne from $13700 a tonne, a two-day decline of more than 4 per cent. On Thursday, Lunni dived into the $13000 / tonne mark and was supported by the closing of short gains, closing slightly above $13200 a tonne. On Friday, Lunni remained low and returned to its 5-day moving average position. As of 15: 30, it was reported at US $13400 / ton. The weekly turnover fell by US $250 / ton, or 1.9%. Weekly trading volume increased by more than 6000 hands to 32000 hands, and weekly position volume decreased by about 1000 hands to 294000 hands. This week, the Shanghai nickel main force 2002 contract began to close negative for four consecutive days on Monday, falling from 110000 yuan / ton to 103360 yuan / ton, falling back to its lowest level since mid-July 2019. Among them, short positions increased by nearly 50, 000 hands, which led to a drop of 4220 yuan / ton, or nearly 4%, on Wednesday. After the week, the focus was on 104000 yuan / ton cross plate shock finishing, and on Friday, a large number of short positions were closed by more than 28000 hands. Shanghai nickel rose from 104000 / tonne to close at 106240 yuan / tonne by Friday, closing at the balcony for the first time this week. Shanghai nickel weekly fell 3090 yuan / ton, down 2.83%, weekly trading volume increased by 1.27 million hands to 8.674 million hands, weekly position increased by 13000 hands to 383000 hands. Shanghai nickel led the downward trend of the disk at home and abroad, and the decline and recovery of the disk during the week were dominated by short positions. After a large number of short departures on Friday, the technical side of Shanghai nickel has eased completely, the near and far month price spread has also been significantly narrowed, close delivery next week, from the disk structure, it is difficult to make a difference for the time being. Short power is gradually weakening, next week will be around Shanghai nickel 105000 yuan / ton first-line test can become the bottom support of the short line. Spot market, starting this week SMM nickel spot price to Shanghai nickel 2001 contract quotation. This week, the average weekly price of Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1912 contract was about 1530 yuan / ton, up 390 yuan / ton from last week, while Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel rose 5220 yuan / ton in 2001 weeks, 930 yuan / ton more than last week. The rising water of Russian nickel and Jinchuan nickel was better than that of last week, mainly due to the large differences in the holdings and export intentions of the traders, resulting in a tight atmosphere of negotiable resources in the market. However, in fact, the transaction was generally high, and there was no significant transaction. Nickel prices "fall incessantly", the current price downstream procurement demand is more normal, there is no obvious warming, for traders due to early shipping difficulties, coupled with the demand for the return of funds at the end of the year, trading interest has been reduced at this stage, the hand will not have too much inventory. It is expected that if there is no extreme market next week, Jinchuan spot water will be relatively stable, Jinchuan Shanghai nickel 2001 contract rose 4800-5500 yuan / ton, Russian nickel may have room for downward adjustment, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2001 contract rose 1000-1500 yuan / ton.