Overview of basic Metal production in China in November 2019

Electrolytic copper

According to SMM research data, China's electrolytic copper production in November 2019 was 798800 tons, an increase of 2.02% over the previous month, and an increase of 7.07% over the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative output was 8.1392 million tons, an increase of 2.09%. The rise in production is mainly due to the rise in the output of the newly expanded smelters, such as Guangxi Nanguo, Chifengyun Copper Phase II, Heilongjiang Zijin, and some smelters at the end of the year in order to achieve the annual production target. During November, basically no smelters were affected by overhaul. In November, the tension between anode copper and scrap copper, although not broken, continues to affect the output of some smelters, but on the whole, the impact is somewhat less than that in October. In November, most smelters are busy with negotiations on long orders of raw materials next year. As the highest proportion of raw materials for copper smelters in China, copper concentrate and crude copper, the processing fee Benchmark in 2020 has basically settled, which is significantly lower than that in 2019. At the same time, the outlook for sulfuric acid in 2020 is still not good, and most smelters say that the production pressure in 2020 is on the high side, especially for small and medium-sized private and underfunded copper refineries. In December, only southern Guangxi has arranged maintenance plans, scrap copper and anode copper tension still affect the output of some refineries, the rest of the smelter basically maintained normal production. According to various production scheduling plans, SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to climb to 807600 tons in December, an increase of 6.05% over the same period last year, and annual cumulative production of 8.9468 million tons, a cumulative increase of 2.43%.

Alumina

According to SMM research data, China's alumina production in November (30 days) was 5.705 million tons, including 5.455 million tons of metallurgical grade alumina and 182000 tons of metallurgical grade daily output, a small increase of 0.42% over the previous month and a decrease of 10.31% from the same period last year. China's total alumina production from January to November 2019 was 63.055 million tons, down 1.84 per cent from a year earlier. The alumina enterprises that cut production and stopped production in November did not resume production and maintained the operating level in October. In December (31 days), Jingxi Tiangui Phase 1 800000-ton production capacity was put into production in November, which will contribute to December production increment; however, individual enterprises such as Luoyang Wanji currently operate only one roaster, and production in December will decline month-on-month. By early December, the operational capacity of metallurgical grade alumina had risen to 69.589 million tons, including 5.72 million tons of metallurgical grade alumina production and 191000 tons of metallurgical grade daily output.

Electrolytic aluminum

According to SMM research data, China's electrolytic aluminum production in November (30 days) was 2.935 million tons, down 0.81% from the same period last year, and from January to November 2019, China's total electrolytic aluminum production was 32.389 million tons, down 2.14% from the same period last year. In November, the overall profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is fair, SMM statistics tons of aluminum average profit of more than 600yuan / ton, under the condition of high profits, the pace of recovery of some production capacity slightly warmed up, by the end of November, the scale of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity rebounded to 35.9 million tons. After December, some new production capacity in Yunnan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia will continue to be put in, and the scale of operating capacity is expected to continue to pick up. In December (31 days), national electrolytic aluminum production is expected to rise to 3.05 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 1.94%. Electrolytic aluminum production returned to positive growth after 12 months of negative growth. The overall de-inventory pace slowed in December, but the trend continued. For the whole year, the total output of electrolytic aluminum in 2019 is expected to be 35.439 million tons, down 1.80 percent from the same period last year, and the total consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to be 36.068 million tons, down 1.53 percent from the same period last year.

Primary lead

According to SMM research data, national raw lead production was 271000 tons in November, up 3.95% from the previous month and 2.4% from the same period last year, and from January to November 2019, primary lead production rose 0.87% from the same period last year. In November, in addition to Jiangxi Jinde, Henan Xinling and other routine maintenance state, as well as the West Mine, Chihong and other equipment factors have been tightened. Others, such as Henan Yuguang, Jinli, Xingan silver lead, Haicheng integrity and so on, the output returned to normal. In addition, Hunan Shuikoushan Zhihui Phase II production line was put into production, and the output was increased. In addition, the processing fee of lead concentrate continues to rise, which is one of the main reasons why the increase of primary lead production in November is higher than expected.

As of December, SMM lead concentrate Pb60 imports monthly TC reported to US $115 / dry ton, rising for four consecutive months, an increase of US $90 / dry ton; SMM lead concentrate Pb50 domestic processing fee to 2150 yuan / metal ton, rose for three consecutive months, an increase of 300 yuan / metal ton. Lead concentrate processing fees continue to rise, under the high profit level, continue to boost the production enthusiasm of primary lead enterprises.

Looking forward to December, primary lead production still maintains an upward trend. The main reason is the recovery of enterprise output overhauled in November, including Xinling in Henan, Jinde in Jiangxi, mining in the west, and so on. At the same time, the supply of lead concentrate is relatively abundant, and the processing fee maintains an upward trend. as of December 6, the regional price of Pb50 processing fee of domestic lead concentrate is generally up to 22002400 yuan / metal ton. In the context of the recent weakening of lead prices, continue to support the production of primary lead enterprises. In addition, after the northern region entered the heating season, the heavy pollution weather occurred frequently, such as Henan also launched orange early warning many times, but because most enterprises have crude lead inventory, it has not had a great impact on the production of refined lead. Therefore, SMM expects the production of primary lead to increase by nearly 10,000 tons in December compared with the previous month.

Refined zinc

According to SMM research data, SMM China's refined zinc production in November was 530800 tons, an increase of 0.29% from the previous month and 16.31% from the same period last year. SMM research sample capacity of 6.085 million tons. From January to November, the cumulative output was 5.307 million tons, an increase of 8.71 percent over the same period last year.

In November, routine overhaul of Wenshan Zinc Indium, Henan Yuguang and other refineries affected the release of output, but driven by high profits, smelting enterprises maintained high load production. Among them, enterprises such as Zhongjin Lingnan in Guangdong and Chihong Zinc Germanium in Yunnan were in the stage of capacity climbing after maintenance, and gradually reached full production. In addition, the third line of Hanzhong zinc industry was put into production on schedule and contributed to production, to sum up. The output of refined zinc increased by 0.29% in November compared with the previous month. In December, refining zinc enterprises stable production, no maintenance plan, in addition, Wenshan zinc indium, Henan Yuguang after the resumption of production release and gradually returned to full production, domestic refined zinc production in December is expected to be 538100 tons, an increase of 1.37% over the previous month, an increase of 19.98% over the same period last year. Cumulative production from January to December is expected to reach 5.845 million tons, an increase of 9.66 percent over the same period last year.

Electrolytic nickel

According to SMM research data, the natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel in November was 14100 tons, an increase of 4.07% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.71% from the same period last year. According to SMM preliminary investigation and understanding, Gansu smelter slightly increased the start-up load, Jilin smelter still continues to stop production, the fastest or to restart production in January next year, Guangxi smelter November electrolytic nickel production line maintenance recovery time has not been determined, other smelters operating load are normal. In December, electrolytic nickel production is expected to increase to 16100 tons, mainly from Gansu manufacturers, whose discharge capacity is increasing to make up for the impact of previous maintenance on the annual production plan.

Nickel pig iron

National nickel pig iron production rose 1.4 per cent to 53100 nickel tonnes in November from a month earlier, up 27.39 per cent from a year earlier, up slightly from September, according to SMM data. In terms of grade, the output of high nickel and iron in November was 45300 nickel tons, which was 1% lower than that of the previous month, while that of low nickel iron in November was 7800 nickel tons, an increase of 18.11% over the previous month. In the first half of November, the profits of high nickel and iron can still maintain a state of high profits, and the sharp drop in nickel prices in the latter ten days is a drag on the high price of nickel and iron, and the high price of nickel and iron is approaching the cost line, but the time for profit narrowing is relatively short, and the nickel-iron plant is still acceptable. Therefore, there has not been a large-scale reduction in production so far, and the output has only been slightly reduced. The market of low nickel pig iron is relatively stable and the production is normal. Some low nickel iron plants overhauled and resumed production in November, so the output of low nickel iron has increased slightly. In December, national nickel pig iron production is expected to increase by 0.13 per cent over the previous month to 53200 nickel tons, up 28.37 per cent from a year earlier, of which high nickel pig iron production rose by 0.15 per cent to 45400 nickel tons. Low-nickel pig iron maintains 7800 nickel tons, mainly due to the maintenance and resumption of production by high-nickel pig iron manufacturers.

Nickel sulfate

According to SMM research data, China's nickel sulfate production in November was 9746 tons of metal, and the physical amount was 44300 tons, down 6.78 percent from the previous month, an increase of 8.98 percent from the same period last year. Nickel sulfate production fell this month, on the one hand, because the integrated precursor plant has greatly reduced production, its supporting nickel sulfate integrated production line has also been reduced; on the other hand, the overall downstream procurement demand is weak, nickel sulfate plant has to choose to reduce production. National nickel sulfate production may continue to decline in December, down 2.6 per cent to 43200 tons in kind, equivalent to 9493 tons of metal, mainly due to further production cuts or even early holidays by precursor manufacturers, and demand for nickel sulfate continues to decline.

Refined tin

Refined tin production in November was 7520 tons, down 24.6 per cent from October, according to SMM research. The sharp decline in refined tin production in November was mainly due to the suspension of equipment maintenance in Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and the short-term equipment overhaul of some refineries in November, which affected some production and some smelters in Yunnan, Jiangxi and other places were in a state of shutdown. China's refined tin production from January to November 2019 was 129647 tons, down 13579 tons, or about 9.48 percent, from a year earlier. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate fell to an all-time low of 31.3% in nearly four years in November. As the year approaches, although some enterprises say they will take the Spring Festival holiday ahead of schedule, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. is about to resume production, and refined tin production is expected to rise to around 10000 tons in December.

Output of metal products in November 2019

Description:

1. The value with * is the corrected value, and the value in italics is the predicted value.

2. The output of nickel pig iron refers to the data after the physical amount of metal is converted into metal.

Research methodology:

1) Research methods

SMM production research is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other means, regularly carry out monthly tracking of Chinese metal production enterprises, and issue a report on Chinese metal production.

In the process of research, ensure the basic coverage proportion of the sample, and continue to expand; at the same time, consider the size of production capacity, geographical distribution, enterprise nature and other details of the reasonable selection and distribution of samples, so that each sub-item data is representative.

Production data include last month's output (initial value), the previous month's output (revised value) and the forecast for the current month's output. In general, SMM rarely modifies the output, that is, the correction value = the initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.

Before the 10th of each month through the Shanghai Nonferrous Network official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today Nonferrous), mobile phone station (m.smm.cn) and other official channels to the public.

2) sample introduction

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