Indonesia’s Well Harvest Winning and Cita Mineral Investindo agree on bauxite supply deal

Indonesia's reinstatement of the mandatory annual RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) approval cycle, effective October 2025, marks a decisive policy reversal to assert direct state control over the mining sector. This shift from three-year planning aims to manage the structural oversupply in the bauxite market where prices of USD 28-30 reflect a 25-30% discount to the official benchmark by enabling precise annual production quotas. The government intends to use this tool to align bauxite output with the scheduled commissioning of 7-8 new alumina refineries requiring over 20 million tons of annual input, thereby forcing market rebalancing and accelerating downstream integration. The success of this high-stakes strategy hinges on mitigating its inherent risks: eroded investor confidence from regulatory volatility and industry consolidation that could reduce market participants by 30-40%, potentially undermining the capital investment required for a globally competitive downstream industry.

China’s alumina market is likely to face a supply deficit of 361,000 mt in 2020, and the annual average operating rate at alumina plants are expected to stand at 78.03%, said Joyce Li, senior analyst at SMM.

China’s copper cathode output continued to rise in May after some of the smelters recovered from maintenance.

China’s copper cathode output in March increased even as secondary copper production continued to contract due to the unfavourable price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap, in addition to copper scrap supply issues. The global outbreak of COVID-19 took a toll on copper scrap supply from Malaysia.

China imported 18.4 million mt of bauxite in the first two months of 2020, up 9.64% from the same period last year.

China produced 5.87 million mt of alumina in December, with metallurgical-grade materials accounting for 5.62 million mt

China imported 7.21 million mt of bauxite last month, up 11.38% from a month ago but down 10.9% from a year ago