11.29 minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting
Trading: the dollar index closed up 0.06%, or 98.337, at 98.337, while Lunal closed down $13.50, or 0.76%, at $1758.5, or 0.76%. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 13765 yuan / ton.
Macro: 1) the final value of the euro area consumer confidence index in November, front value:-7.2, expected:-7.2, published:-7.2. Euro area economic sentiment index for November, front value: 100.8, forecast: 101, released: 101.3. Euro area industrial sentiment index for November, front:-9.5, expected:-9.1, released:-9.2. 2) the relevant responsible person of the NDRC answered a reporter's question on strengthening the capital management of fixed assets investment projects, saying that at present, the per capita infrastructure stock in China is equivalent to 20%-30% of that in western developed countries, and there are still many shortcomings in the fields of transportation, water conservancy, energy, ecological environmental protection, social and people's livelihood, and so on. On the whole, there is still a lot of room and potential for investment in infrastructure in China. 3) according to the Ministry of Finance, 96.46 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued nationwide in October. From January to October, 4.2787 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued nationwide. 4) focus on China's official manufacturing PMI data for November, released at the end of the month or early December.
Fundamentals: 1) SMM data show that on November 28, 6063 aluminum rod stocks in major consumer areas across the country: 25700 tons in Foshan, 22400 tons in Wuxi, and a total of 77900 tons in the five places, down 8800 tons from last Thursday. SMM counts domestic electrolysis inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts): 135000 tons in Shanghai and 233000 tons in Wuxi, with a total inventory of 755000 tons of aluminum ingots in consumer areas, down 44000 tons from last Thursday. 2) in October, the export volume of aluminum profiles and bars in China was 80,000 tons, down 7.33% from the previous month and 3.8% from the same period last year. Exports of aluminum profiles and bars from January to October were 866000 tons, up 10.17 per cent from January to September and 10.79 per cent from January to October 2018. 3) according to SMM, Xinjiang Xinfa will resume power production on the 20th of this month and is expected to resume production capacity of about 125000 tons by the end of the year; Yunnan Shenhuo is expected to turn on electricity in mid-December; Zhongfu Guangyuan will have electricity today.
Spot end: yesterday Shanghai and Wuxi market spot quotation concentrated in 13950-13960 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day up 10 yuan / ton, the current month rose 70-90 yuan / ton, next month ticket price and the current month price difference in 10 yuan / ton, 11: 00 aluminum price center of gravity floating, but at this time the transaction heat fell, the actual transaction price did not rise. The spot price of Hangzhou is concentrated in 1399014010 yuan / ton, and the quotation of traders in Hangzhou is relatively strong. Yesterday, the shippers are more active, middlemen have a strong willingness to receive goods at low prices, the two sides can trade, but the purchase volume of a large customer in the market is less, the lack of this part of the participation, the overall transaction between traders is not as good as yesterday. Downstream yesterday on-demand procurement, receiving mediocre without too much bright spot. It is expected that today's rising water around 80 yuan / ton, the absolute price spread over yesterday's price is less than 50 yuan / ton.
Summary: electrolytic aluminum inventory fell by more than 40, 000 tons this week, or is expected to fall below the 700000 ton mark by the end of the year. If it continues to decline, it will refresh a new two-year low. In the short term, there is a strong support for the price. It is expected that the space below the absolute price of short-term aluminum price is limited to maintain the strong volatility of the interval. Because the market confidence in the 2001 contract is weaker than the 1912 contract, the Shanghai aluminum back structure is difficult to eliminate in the short term. This year's heating season did not take "one size fits all" measures, the impact on the downstream is less than last year, but the Spring Festival earlier this year, we need to pay attention to the pre-festival production status and holiday plans of downstream enterprises. Since last week, LME aluminum inventory growth of more than 260000 tons, inventory end pressure is obvious, although the short-term trend of aluminum is more stable, but still need to guard against the risk of proper operation.
(SMM Xueman)
