SMM Evening Comments (Nov 22)

SHANGHAI, Nov 22 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals continued to fall for the most part. Copper shed 0.49%, lead fell 0.23%, zinc slipped 0.69%, nickel eased 0.41%, while aluminium gained 0.14%, and tin climbed 1.84%. 

The ferrous complex, meanwhile, closed higher with iron ore leading the gains and ending up 2.2%. Rebar advanced 0.33%, hot-rolled coil increased 0.48%, stainless steel rose 1.36%, and coke added 0.67%.

Copper: Persistent worries over global economic growth and status of US-China trade negotiations kept copper prices at low. The most-traded SHFE 2001 contract slipped to an intraday low of 46,850 yuan/mt and finished lower for the second straight day, at 46,870 yuan/mt, down 0.49%. It lost support from all moving averages, which together with bearish signals from technical indicators, may see the contract struggling around 46,800 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: Departing longs weighed the most-traded SHFE 2001 contract to an intraday low of 13,820 yuan/mt, before short-covering lifted the contract and ended it higher at 13,855 yuan/mt. Prices were supported as SMM data showed that social stocks of primary aluminium and aluminium billet shrank this week. The contract is expected to remain rangebound tonight. 

Zinc: The most-active SHFE 2001 contract returned above the 18,000 yuan/mt level after SMM data pointed to a weekly decline in social inventories of refined zinc. But with pressure from the five-day moving average, the contract finished at 17,970 yuan/mt, down 0.69% on the day. A weakened LME zinc is expected to keep the contract testing support from the Bollinger lower band tonight. 

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE 2002 contract failed to hold onto gains from overnight as it fell 0.41% to end at 113,200 yuan/mt. With the K-indicator standing below the Bollinger lower band, the contract may consolidate around 114,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The most-active SHFE 2001 contract continued its slide, ending down 0.23% at 15,520 yuan/mt. The decline, however, was capped as offers of secondary lead flipped to premiums over the primary lead. Limited downside room is expected in the contract tonight.  

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE 2001 contract extended its price rally as exiting shorts sent it to nearly a month high of 139,430 yuan/mt, before the contract ending up 1.84% on the day at 139,050 yuan/mt. This marked the third straight session of increase. Currently above all moving averages, the contract is expected to test resistance from 140,000 yuan/mt tonight.