Metals News
SMM Evening Comments (Nov 19)
price review forecast
Nov 19,2019

SHANGHAI, Nov 19 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium, ended lower on Tuesday as optimistic sentiment around US-China trade deal eased. Nickel led the losses and fell 1.7%. Copper shed 0.02%, lead dropped 1.2%, zinc slipped 0.11%, tin fell 0.04%, while aluminium gained 0.29%. 
The ferrous complex, meanwhile, traded higher as iron ore climbed 0.63%, rebar increased 2.31%, hot-rolled coil added 0.92%, stainless steel gained 1.05%, and coke advanced 2.49%.

Copper: The most-active SHFE January 2020 contract hovered rangebound and ended slightly lower on the day as markets awaited firmer signs of an end to the US-China trade conflict. The contract recovered from an intraday low of 46,790 yuan/mt and finished at 46,890 yuan/mt, down 0.02% on the day, paring gains from the previous session. Pressure from several moving averages above will see the contract testing support from 46,800 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE 2001 contract relinquished part of the gains from Monday as it came off from an intraday high of 13,770 yuan/mt, ending up 0.29% at 13,730 yuan/mt. Heavy resistance from the 10- and 20- day moving averages will limit any upside room in the contract tonight. The price spread between 1912 and 2001 contract will be monitored. 

Zinc: The most-traded SHFE 2001 contract regained losses after a buildup of shorts dragged it swiftly to a low of 18,125 yuan/mt. It still ended 0.11% lower on the day at 18,305 yuan/mt. While elevated premium of spot zinc pointed to tight nearby supply, lingering doubts about the strength of demand kept investors cautious. Tonight, pressure from the Bollinger lower band will be watched. 

Nickel: The most-active SHFE 2002 contract continued to trend downwards, hovering around the lowest in more than three months and ending down 1.7% at 115,360 yuan/mt. As the K-indicator fell below the Bollinger lower band, the contract may struggle above the 115,000 yuan/mt level tonight. 

Lead: An underperformed LME lead weighed on the most-active SHFE 2001 contract, which extended loss from overnight and hit a low of 15,560 yuan/mt, closing down 1.2% at 15,640 yuan/mt. The contract gave up gains from the previous two sessions, but limited downside room is expected tonight as the price spread between primary and secondary lead shrank to normal levels. 

Tin: The most-active SHFE 2001 contract trimmed Monday's increase and slipped to an intraday low of 133,700 yuan/mt, but short-covering lifted the contract to highs around 135,000 yuan/mt, before it closed down 0.04% at 134,850 yuan/mt. Open interest in the 2001 contract shrank a significant 3,540 lots while open interest in the 2005 contract added 3,666 lots. Tonight, the 2001 contract may trade with support from 134,000 yuan/mt and resistance from 136,000-136,300 yuan/mt. 

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