SMM News: volume price: 18, Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, the main contract closed at 46980 yuan / ton, up 0.23%. Compared with the previous trading day, the trading volume of all Shanghai copper contracts decreased by 59000 to 177000, while the position increased by 2420 to 535000, mainly by short positions. Among them, the main contract CU2001 top 20 buying positions increased by 871 hands to 6.5 hands, the top 20 selling single positions increased by 1893 hands to 7.7 hands.
Inventory receipt: on the 18th, LME stocks were reduced by 3325 tons to 221000 tons, and inventories continued to decline. The proportion of LME write-off receipts accounted for 16%, which continued to decline from the previous trading day. SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell 3141 tons to 65000 tons from the previous day.
Spot: 18, Yangshan copper warehouse receipt premium of $71 / ton, the same as the previous day. Last day, LME spot rose to-24 US dollars / ton, Shanghai than 8.03, imports break even. According to SMM, 18 Shanghai electrolytic copper spot price for recent months contract rose 130 ~ 160 yuan / ton, inventory low and rising water to maintain a high level. On the whole, the willingness of traders to bid remained unchanged while the downstream demand remained unchanged, and the market was slightly deadlocked.
Viewpoint: recent data show that domestic macro data have fallen in an all-round way, the economy is under pressure and risk sentiment has led to a fall in copper prices. From the perspective of copper supply and demand, since the beginning of the year, affected by strikes, protests, mine closures, extreme weather and other events, the global mine copper production has been reduced to a certain extent, and the supply of raw materials is still tight. However, the domestic scrap copper approval volume continues to decrease, the processing fee continues to be in a lower position, the copper supply situation has not been greatly improved. On the demand side, copper concentrate, electrolytic copper and copper imports increased significantly in October compared with the same period last year, domestic refined copper and copper production increased significantly, copper demand still has great toughness. Downstream, in October, the copper operating rate has dropped month-on-month, consumption is still insufficient, but the overall remains relatively stable. Terminal real estate sales area cumulative year-on-year from negative to positive, car sales are also marginal, and power grid investment is expected to make further efforts. Inventory continues to decline in the context of stable domestic growth, promote consumption policy is expected to bring benefits to the copper market. But in the short term, market risk appetite has been reduced, copper prices will be under pressure.
1. Unilateral: neutral; 2. Cross-market: not yet; 3. Intertemporal: not yet; 4. Options: not available for the time being
Concerns and risk points:
1. The economic downturn is a drag on demand; 2. Power grid investment is not as expected; 3. Macro risk
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