SMM, 8 November:
The Fed cut interest rates led to loose monetary policy and Sino-US trade war negotiations ushered in a better atmosphere, gold prices fell, the central bank launched 400 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, winning interest rate 3.25%, 5 basis points lower than the previous period, RMB rose above 7, market confidence picked up, led by higher copper and aluminum, SMMI weekly rebound rose 0.23%. Shanghai aluminum 1911 contract shows signs of forced positions, every other month contract spread from 100 yuan / ton widened, once more than 300 yuan / ton, the main contract effectively broke through the 1911 mark, short routed out of the market, the center of gravity moved up, although spot aluminum prices turned to water for discount, but traders in Chinalco led active trading, 1911 contracts rose 1.83%, SMMI rose 1.64%. Lun copper is nearly 6000 US dollars / ton, up 1.63%, Shanghai copper is weaker than Lun copper, rising only 0.25%, spot relying on rising water, SMMI.Cu rose 0.89%. Within the week, lead, zinc and nickel are still under pressure, Shanghai lead continues to run in the downlink channel, the price difference between primary and recycled refined lead is still in the range of 400-500 yuan / ton, trade trading discount is still expanding, SMMI.Pb fell 1.97%. Zinc fell below 10, 000, although the spot water rose, spot low prices downstream also increased, but the transaction price down day by day is difficult to change, SMMI.Zn weekly fell 1.37%. Lunni concussion at the $10, 000 mark, Shanghai nickel weakness around 130000 yuan to seek support, spot trading has been converted to 1912 contract, from the 1911 contract discount to 1912 contract water trading, and the rising water in the 3000 yuan line, in the market pessimistic mood for the future, high rising water significantly suppressed trading, SMMI.Ni week fell 1.32%. Tin week range volatility, spot prices are flat. There are still a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week, and the weak economy has caused loose monetary policies around the world one after another. After five consecutive positive days this week, the US dollar may be blocked from rebounding continuously, and the domestic RMB will also be sorted out around 7. Macro monetary policy is conducive to the continued rebound and uptrend of basic metals, but what is more leading is that the 1911 contract will usher in the delivery cycle next week. Each metal variety will change according to the strength of its own fundamentals, with the structural changes of the price difference between months, strong items guard against high pressure, weak metal or test the effectiveness of support in the low key integer position, the difference between strength and weakness will be increased.
Copper: Lun copper has maintained its upward trend this week. During the week, US non-farm payrolls data in October surpassed expectations and superimposed US PMI data, weakening the market's expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, showing that the effectiveness of US easing policies has initially appeared, US stocks have been boosted to a new all-time high, and 10-year Treasury bond yields have also hit a new high in nearly three months. CMX gold prices have fallen to around 1460 US dollars / oz, and market risk aversion has gradually cooled. Superimposed on the improvement in the situation of Sino-US trade negotiations, the market atmosphere has warmed up, and optimism has increased. Lun Copper's confidence has been boosted all the way higher. Lun Copper has been based on 5850 US dollars / ton since Monday and gradually got rid of the winding of the 5-day and 10-day moving average. it broke through the $5900 / ton mark, stood at the $5950 / ton level, hit a weekly high of $6011 / ton, hit a new high in nearly three months, touched Brin on the track, and rose nearly 2% on Thursday. The weekly increase was 1.63%. At present, Lun copper has jumped above all moving averages, MACD index is still red pillar, KDJ index opening up, the technical performance is more advantageous. This week, Lun copper mainly showed a long increase in positions, with a position increase of 1913 hands to 285000 hands.
This week, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper moved up compared with last week, the characteristics of external strength and internal weakness were obvious, and the ratio of Shanghai to London decreased. Driven by optimism about the improvement in Sino-US trade, Shanghai Copper went high at the beginning of the week. Subsequently, the central bank carried out the 400 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, the winning interest rate was 3.25%, 5 basis points lower than the previous period. The small interest rate cut by the central bank reflected the domestic determination to maintain stable economic growth. The appreciation of the RMB broke through the 7 integer mark, giving confidence to the domestic market. The Shanghai copper main force 1912 contract broke away from the 20-day and 40-day moving averages, stood firmly at the 47000 yuan / ton integer mark, and the center of gravity moved up and remained stable around 47300 yuan / ton. And rushed up to 47630 yuan / ton within the week high, the weekend has stood on the 10-day moving average, KDJ index showed a golden fork trend. The weekly position of the main force 1912 contract decreased by 18700 hands to 180000 hands, mainly by the reduction of short positions, the weekly position of the Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 8862 hands to 529000 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 219000 hands to 1.119 million hands. The main force holds the position backward, is about to complete the change of the month.
On the spot side, the spot rally this week gradually pulled up to 100 yuan. Just entered the beginning of the month, the enterprise capital performance is relatively abundant, and the recent import window continues to close, imported copper does not see a large number of imports into the market, the market circulation supply is limited, stimulating the market traders low prices actively take goods sentiment, so this week also makes the holder is more willing to bid. Superimposed recent Shanghai copper contract spread in recent months to maintain around Contango 80 yuan / ton, leading spot quotation from the beginning of the week 30-80 yuan / ton to 100-120 yuan / ton. However, due to the subsequent high level, and the high rise in water to suppress the profit margins of traders, so the quotation continues to raise space is limited, spot trading activity during the week is mainly led by traders.
Aluminum: aluminum maintained a high shock this week. At the beginning of the week, stimulated by Powell's hawkish speech, the market atmosphere improved. Short positions were reduced by more than 10,000 hands. Lun aluminum directly crossed the 1800 yuan / ton mark and continued to rise after that. Because the upper pressure remained, it remained high near 1810 US dollars / ton in the next few days. It rose to a weekly high of 1819 US dollars / ton on Thursday. As of 16:30 on Friday, the K line closed at 1815 US dollars / ton. Trading volume increased by 14070 hands to 71024 hands, position volume reduced by 11073 hands to 768000 hands, short position reduction, closed in the small positive line this week, the center of gravity jumped to the 20-day moving average, and began to explore the upper 40-day moving average resistance level, weekly KDJ three-line opening up. Macro mood improved this week, the early Fed interest rate cut under the background of short flight, Lun aluminum changed the previous malaise posture began to climb higher, Thursday Ministry of Commerce spokesman released the gradual removal of tariff signal news, the outer plate metal turned red that night, Lun aluminum to explore the upper space and refresh more than a month since the new high, is expected to continue to maintain strong volatility in the evening, focus on next week's dollar index and important euro zone data and other macro data.
The Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract showed a strong concussion this week, which opened at 13940 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. In the following days, the shorts reduced their positions and left the market one after another, and the center of gravity of aluminum prices moved up one after another. Due to the above pressure on the 40-day moving average aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday, but as the short positions were further closed, Shanghai aluminum gained power and leapt above the 40-day moving average on Friday, with the upper shadow line rising 14120 yuan / ton, brushing the recent 40-day high, and closing on Friday. Shanghai aluminum week K line closed at 14030 yuan / ton, across the Wansi pass, closed at the Zhongyang line, piercing the upper 40 / 60 daily moving average resistance, trading volume increased by 11904 hands to 531000 hands, position reduced by 21224 hands to 206000 hands, short positions reduced mainly this week, weekly KDJ third line rose, MACD green line shortened. As of Friday, the BACK spread between the 1911 contract and the 1912 contract has expanded to around 170 yuan / ton. The widening spread is mainly due to the forced position effect caused by the exchange month of the current month's contract, short closing or backward moving, pushing up the strength of the month. The main 1912 contract also gained a rally under the background of improved macro atmosphere. It is expected to continue to maintain strong volatility in the range next week, but continue to have limited upstream space. Next week, we will continue to pay attention to the changes in the current month and the next month.
Prices of spot aluminium ingots in eastern China were higher this week, rocking upward from Monday to Friday. The prices of Shanghai and Wuxi are concentrated between 1405014190 yuan / ton, 70-up 90 yuan / ton, and 14060-14180 yuan / ton in Hangzhou. The average weekly price of the three places rose more than 130 yuan / ton compared with last week. When Shanghai and tin are approaching the weekend, the price of deliverable brand aluminum ingots is between 14150 and 14230 yuan / ton, which is 60 yuan / ton higher than that of other brands. Due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the shipping enthusiasm of some holders in the spot market was significantly higher than last week, the willingness of some middlemen to receive goods at low prices did not abate, and the two sides traded more actively, but because the number of shippers increased significantly, and there were not many spot aluminum ingots circulating near the exchange month in the market, the actual transactions between the two sides showed a slight stalemate, and a major market procurement plan this week was also biased towards deliverable brands. Downstream manufacturers this week to maintain on-demand procurement status, due to high prices, downstream wait-and-see mood is stronger, the actual volume of goods is less, the performance is light.
Lead: this week, Lun lead continued to plunge, breaking through all EMA support, the market sentiment is extremely pessimistic; at the beginning of the week, Lun lead ran in a narrow range of $2160, but the good times did not last long. A few days later, non-ferrous metals were sold off, and Lun lead plummeted one after another to break through all EMA lines. During the week, the low level fell to $2084 / ton, a weekly decline of 3.16%, and officially entered the downward channel. As of Friday, Lun lead was reported at $2110 / ton. Next week's overseas macro data can pay attention to: the monthly rate of GDP after the October quarterly survey in the United States, the monthly rate of industrial output in September in the eurozone, the revised annual rate in the third quarter of the eurozone, the monthly rate in October in the United States, the monthly rate in October in the euro area, and the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in October. As the Federal Reserve lowered its expectations of cutting interest rates in December, the market focused on the performance of economic data, and the expected performance was relatively stable, and the dollar is expected to maintain a low recovery trend. Return to Lun lead, the technical graph has been broken, there is the possibility of overfall rebound in the short term, but because the fundamentals have no strong rising expectations, so the height of the rebound is not expected, it is expected to focus on the center of gravity around 2100 US dollars / ton integer level shock, the operation is recommended to sell short. The operating range is expected to be US $2070-2130 per ton.
Shanghai lead also followed the downward trend this week, but the decline showed signs of slowing down compared with Lun lead, and the internal and external prices were gradually revised up. At the beginning of the week, due to the pessimistic performance of domestic lead fundamentals, there was no sign of narrowing the primary price difference of regeneration, and the price of waste battery followed the decline, and a number of indicators showed that the cost support below lead was far from the bottom, so the price of lead remained in a negative decline, with a cumulative decline of 2.84% on the 4th day, giving up the increase of nearly two months in the past three weeks, the low level once dropped to 16060 yuan / ton, and the top was under pressure on all moving averages as of Friday. Shanghai lead closed at 16100 yuan / ton; Into next week, there are no domestic economic data, next week lead prices rely on their own fundamentals, focusing on two factors inventory and regenerated primary price spread, the signal to stop the decline is that the price spread narrowed to 200-300 yuan / tonne, and the accumulation of social inventory is lower than expected; Technical graphics, the main contract index has broken down the platform, superimposed fundamentals are weak, the price of lead is not optimistic next week, if it falls below ten thousand six, there is also the possibility of short cash, Shanghai lead may hover near ten thousand six for a short time, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The expected operating range is 15900-16250 yuan / ton.
The main trading range of spot lead this week is 16150-16550 yuan / ton. This week lead price shock downward, downstream generally look weak price, purchase to regenerate refined lead mainly, but still mostly on demand to buy, the market as a whole transaction is dull; Primary lead and trade market, high shipping enthusiasm, but weak consumption, as well as recycled refined lead deep sticking impact, as of Friday, the refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 150 yuan / ton to flat water quotation, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation to 1911 contract discount 50 yuan / ton to flat water; Recycled lead, due to low consumption, recycled refineries to maintain deep water shipments, as of Friday, recycled lead mainstream quotation on the average price of SMM1# lead discount 500-400 yuan / ton.
Zinc: the center of gravity of zinc has shifted down under pressure this week. Early Zhou Lun zinc around 2540 US dollars / ton first-line finishing operation, then into the empty, Tazhenlun zinc upward touch high 2560 yuan / ton, but failed to stand firm, quickly fell to 2500 US dollars / ton around the finishing operation, but the upper 5-day moving average line suppression is stronger, Lun zinc operation center of gravity was frustrated down to 2470 US dollars / ton first-line finishing operation, shorts increased warehouse more than 30, 000 hands came in to hit the price to 2462 US dollars / ton. Subsequently, Lun Zinc Xu Li returned to the front line of 2490 US dollars / ton, and part of the short left the market at night to raise 2500 US dollars / ton, but the integer level was strongly suppressed, and after a slight drop in Lun Zinc, it fell down 2472.5 US dollars / ton again. As of Friday, Lun Zinc closed at $2478.5 a tonne, down 1.76 per cent for the week. The center of gravity moves down to the 20-day moving average for directional finishing.
This week, Shanghai and zinc lost all the EMA support under the pressure breakage under the agglomeration of each EMA. At the beginning of the week, the Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract was supported by the daily average line, with a narrow range of 19040 yuan / ton and a running range of no more than 40 yuan / ton. Then empty into doping, Shanghai zinc frustrated downward, the center of gravity down to 18950 yuan / ton line, coincided with the 10th moving average support strength appeared, Shanghai zinc steadily rebounded, breaking through the Wanjiu pass suppression strength, touch high 19160 yuan / ton, but the short entered the market to suppress zinc price, Shanghai zinc quickly moved down to 18870 yuan / ton around finishing operation, the upper 5-day moving average suppression is stronger, Shanghai zinc failed to stick to, down 18575 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the support found in the low level rose back to 18700 yuan / ton near the narrow range of finishing, near the weekend inventory increase, the bulls left the market again dragged down the Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity down to 18650 yuan / ton line. As of Friday, Shanghai Zinc 1912 contract was reported at 18590 yuan / ton, down 1.93% per week, reducing its position by 8294 hands to 159000 hands. 2001 contract position increment of more than 35000 hands to more than 170000 hands, trading volume increased by 180000 hands to 623000 hands, the main position has been changed.
This week, the price of domestic zinc ingots in Shanghai market has rebounded from last week, and the basic price of ordinary brands has risen by 80-90 yuan / ton. Shuangyan and ordinary brands almost no price difference, Huize market circulation supply is not much, the December water 100-110 yuan / ton. SMC, AZ and India reported an increase of 4050 yuan / tonne for December. This week, with the shock of zinc prices weakening, Shanghai spot water rose low, from the beginning of the week to 1912 contracts rose 50 yuan / ton to 1912 contracts on Friday rose 90 yuan / ton, downstream procurement is still dominated by the need for procurement, but the overall bargain purchasing mood has improved significantly this week; Import zinc, this week's import loss has not correspondingly narrowed, the domestic still to SMC/AZ and other imported brands of zinc, next week officially into mid-November, the first batch of long orders need to be delivered one after another, it is expected that spot rising water to maintain a steady rise.
This week, Guangdong Zinc discounted 10 yuan / ton to the Shanghai Zinc 1912 contract to near Pingshui, and the Guangdong stock market narrowed from 120 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton on Friday. This week, the Guangdong market smelter shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. At the beginning of the week, the holder continued to offer a basic discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, the market transaction was more limited, the new round of long trade order just began, the traders were more emotional and willing to expand the goods under the discount, the consignee was willing to receive the goods at a discount of 40 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and the transaction of the whole trade market was relatively deadlocked. Entering Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fell below the Wanjiu level, and there is still a downward trend, downstream buying and buying has been boosted by active buying, superimposed traders traded more enthusiastically, Guangdong spot discount has rebounded to 12 contract discount 10 yuan / ton to near Pingshui. Overall, the first half of the week the market continued last week's light atmosphere, downstream buying is not good, superimposed traders transaction stalemate, the overall transaction situation is poor, into Wednesday's market fell after stabilizing, the market transaction activity rose significantly, overall Guangdong this week transaction significantly better than last week.
The current zinc contract in Tianjin this week rose 0-120 yuan / ton on the Shanghai zinc 1912 contract, and the rising water situation in Tianjin was little changed from that in Shanghai on Friday, keeping the rising water near 10 yuan / ton. During the week, high-priced brand refineries arrived less, the market high-priced spot supply tightened, ordinary brand supply is still inclined to loose. This week, the disk high fell back, the downstream mining enthusiasm gradually repaired, the holder gradually raised the water, from the beginning of the week to the 12 contract water rose 0-80 yuan / ton, gradually increased to 12 contract water 30-120 yuan / ton. This week, Monday to Tuesday, the disk high shock, downstream buying Xing was seriously suppressed, the enthusiasm for goods is very low, inquiry wait-and-see is also significantly reduced, the market transaction is very light; From Wednesday to Friday, the market fell back from a high level, even if the rising water rose slightly, rising to 30-120 yuan / ton for the 12 contract, but the enthusiasm for bargain mining and buying in the lower reaches still improved to a certain extent, superimposed on the weekend replenishment demand, the market trading atmosphere is still good; overall, the overall trading situation in the downstream market this week is flat compared with last week.
Tin: this week, the Lunxi electronic disk fell slightly at the beginning of the week to the previous platform of $16300 / ton after the bottom rebounded, and then the overall Lunxi showed a small concussion upward trend. On Thursday, Lunxi tried to break the 10-60 day moving average above, but failed to break through due to the rise in the dollar index and the large increase in inventories, and finally fell back under pressure. The center of gravity moved up slightly on Friday, with the latest price of $16595 a tonne as of 15: 30. During the week, it rose $75 / ton, or 0.45%, with a turnover of 1386 hands and a position of 17306 hands, an increase of 421 hands. Zhou Neilun tin is a small positive line, the upper shadow line to the 5-10 moving average near. In terms of indicators, the daily line level MACD index shows a shrinking state below the zero axis, there is the possibility of forming a golden fork; the KDJ index has been bonded in the early stage and showed an upward trend; the K line is pressurized in the middle rail of the Brin belt. Weekly price, MACD index is still showing upward slow release trend; KDJ index high bond; K line is still from the Brin channel under the rail to the middle rail, but has not yet reached, is still in the Brin belt under the rail and the middle rail.
This week, Shanghai tin overall maintained at the 20-day moving average and 60-day moving average, that is, 136000-138000 yuan / ton near the range of shocks. At the beginning of the week, short positions affected Shanghai tin pressure downward, and then prices reached the market expected price, that is, near the 60-day moving average, the spot market downstream buy Xing warmed up, the short force took profit to close the warehouse departure, Shanghai tin position reduction upward. After that, the short power increased its position again and made a profit after leaving the market. The center of gravity of tin in Shanghai moved up slightly on Friday, closing at 137180 yuan per ton. Weekly decline of 40 yuan / ton, down 0.03%, trading volume of 91000 hands, position of 38000 hands, down 1620 hands. In terms of indicators, the daily line level, the MACD index column chart shows a shrinking state below the zero axis, the fast line approaches the zero axis from the top down, the KDJ index is about to form a golden fork, and the K line is pressurized below the middle rail of the Brin belt. At the weekly level, the MACD index fast and slow line shows an upward trend below the zero axis; the KDJ is bonded into a dead fork; the K line is pressed below the middle rail of the Brin belt.
This week, the spot price of Shanghai tin followed the overall stability of the Shanghai tin market. At the beginning of the week, the spot price of Shanghai tin was stable at 136000-138000 yuan / ton. Enterprises downstream of the market were willing to buy and replenish goods. Some traders also replenished goods from small smelters, and the market transaction atmosphere warmed up. Subsequently, the center of gravity of Shanghai tin plate rose with the rise in spot prices, Shanghai package traders bargain stock, downstream buying Xing affected by the price rise has fallen, the spot market transaction atmosphere is general. The spot price of Shanghai tin on Friday was 136500-138500 yuan / ton. In terms of water discount, with the rise of tin in Shanghai, the supply of goods narrowed and the water range widened slightly. On Friday, the Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rose 800 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi flat water-200 yuan / ton, and small brand discount 300-500 yuan / ton.
Nickel: the overall concussion of Lunni went down to $16200 per tonne this week to make a low concussion. On Monday, as LME stocks rose 2874 tons and bulls fled quickly, Lunni plummeted nearly $2874 a tonne to around $16300 a tonne in Europe, down nearly 3 per cent in a single day. In the middle of the week, Lunni weak finishing, away from the upper averages, the center of gravity in the $16200 / ton line of small finishing. On Thursday, Lunni rose sharply at the beginning of the day, touching the $16600 / ton mark and then swinging back down, closing in the long shadow line Yang Cross and falling below the 5-day moving average again. As of 15: 00 on Friday, Lunni was at $16200 a tonne, closing at the small negative line, which is still below the 5-day moving average, but there is still support at the Wanliu level. Lunni week K column is a small negative column, weekly down $580 / ton, down 3.46%, weekly trading volume decreased by 6000 hands to 28000 hands, position increased by 5000 hands to 291000 hands. The news this week is relatively calm, Indonesia's mining ban policy to be announced next week, Lunni since Monday fell, maintaining a low range of narrow oscillations, long and short both sides cautious operation. Domestic Shanghai nickel main force 1912 contract this week above pressure 134000 yuan / ton first line, concussion downward, below 130000 yuan / ton pass temporary support, narrow concussion. On Tuesday night, Shanghai nickel followed Lunni's downward trend, falling from 134000 yuan / ton to around 131000 yuan / ton, down 3060 yuan / ton in a single day, down more than 2%. In the next few days, the top of Shanghai nickel is faced with a number of moving average pressure, the overall center of gravity around 131000 yuan / ton shock finishing. As of Friday's close, Shanghai nickel closed at 130570 yuan / ton, with the top of the K column under direct pressure from the 5 / 20 EMA, but still below each EMA. Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract weekly fell 3990 yuan / ton, down nearly 3%, weekly trading volume decreased by 1.543 million hands to 2.721 million hands, position reduced by nearly 47000 hands to 180000 hands. 2001 contract positions have been reduced by more than 16000 hands to more than 233000 hands, and the main force of positions has been changed to 2001 contracts, down 3.17% per week, with a price difference of close to 2500-2800 yuan / ton with 1912 contracts. 2002 contracts have increased their positions by more than 13000 hands, and the price difference between 2002 contracts and 1912 contracts has exceeded 4000 yuan / ton. The pattern of near strength and far weakness makes the recent operation of buying near and selling far more prominent. Low inventories at home and abroad still make short bears afraid, but the fundamentals of the weak pattern and the overrise of the previous mining ban have led to a lack of confidence among the bulls. Recently, the long and short sides have continued to increase their game power. Although the news of the long and short sides has emerged one after another, the market performance is cautious and wait-and-see. In a short period of time, it is still dominated by concussion. In the spot market, this week, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1912 contract week rose about 2500 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 1912 week average rose 3800 yuan / ton, this week the holder moved from Shanghai nickel 1911 to Shanghai nickel 1912 quotation, because the contract upside down, basically more than 3000 yuan / ton, the contract from last week discount to rise. This week, the overall transaction is very weak, the contract upside down price difference led some holders to choose to deliver in the Shanghai nickel 1911 contract, the market circulation supply is on the low side. And some of the holders moved to the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract, because the downstream demand is very light, because the rising water is higher, basically there is no market, trading volume is very few. Traders are also reluctant to replenish goods because of the price difference. This week, the price difference between Wuxi nickel and Shanghai nickel is still large, once reached 10, 000 yuan / ton, stimulating part of the downstream pure nickel to purchase nickel beans in Wuxi plate, according to market feedback, Wuxi nickel beans can be discounted 1000 yuan / ton to take goods, Wuxi plate nickel beans transaction to a certain extent restrained Shanghai nickel transaction. Next Friday, Shanghai will enter the delivery period of the November contract, and it is expected that the water level will remain stable next week. Russian nickel will continue to raise water by 2300 to 2700 yuan / ton for Shanghai nickel 1912 contract and 3800 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton for Jinchuan Shanghai nickel 1912 contract.
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