SMM11, June 6: today's non-ferrous metals market green manure red, by the end of the day, Shanghai copper rose 0.06%, Shanghai aluminum flat, Shanghai zinc fell 1.39%, Shanghai lead fell 1.52%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.17%, Shanghai tin fell 0.03%.
Tin, in today's 2019 Ninth Tin Industry chain Summit, the industry professionals shared their views on the industry. Liu Qunyi, an associate researcher at the Institute of Mineral Resources of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, said the global tin consumption center had shifted to Asia. From 1950 to 2018, the proportion of tin consumption decreased from 41.9% to 16.4% in Europe, from 48.1% to 14.1% in the Americas, from 0.4% to 45.8% in China, and from 7.3% to 68.6% in Asia (including China). "[live broadcast of the summit] Macro-economic and foreign exchange market prospects tin fundamentals and trading logic analysis
On the nickel side, Ruida futures analysts said that ferronickel was shipped home from Jinchuan, Indonesia. China's nickel-iron imports from Indonesia have risen rapidly, while nickel mine imports have also increased significantly. At present, the inventory of nickel mining ports has rebounded, the consumption of stainless steel in the lower reaches of the stack is weak, and the pressure on nickel prices is increasing. However, the current nickel supply gap is expected to remain, as well as Indonesia's inspection of nickel exports. It has a certain impact on the export of nickel mine, at the same time, the investigation results still need to pay attention to, and support the nickel price.
On the aluminum side, the downstream demand is still weak, and the expected production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the future is expected to put pressure on the aluminum price, but at present, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to be removed, and the import approval of waste aluminum in China has dropped sharply, coupled with the emergence of the environmental protection and production restriction policy in the fourth quarter, the performance of aluminum price is on the strong side. On the spot side, spot prices have been slightly revised back today, the shippers' willingness to ship has increased significantly, the mood of receiving goods has obviously converged, and the overall transaction activity is less than that of the previous two days. Downstream manufacturers are still purchasing on demand today and have a wait-and-see attitude towards prices.
Black, iron ore up 0.73%, thread up 1.27%, hot coil up 1.04%, stainless steel up 0.03%, coke down 0.11%, coking coal down 0.20%. The first big order of the Liaoning delegation at the Expo was born: Benxi Iron and Steel Group signed a $140 million bulk raw fuel import agreement with BHP (BHP Billiton). On the data front, Brazilian scrap steel exports rose 127.7% to 71620 tons in October from a year earlier, according to data released by Brazil's Ministry of economy on Tuesday. However, exports fell 1 per cent in October from a month earlier. Data show that most of the goods leave Brazil through the port of Santos (41121 tons), followed by the port of Itagai (9185 tons). Of the total exports, 32099 tons were shipped to Indonesia, with an average export price of US $211 per ton, followed by Bangladesh with 18504 tons, with an average export price of US $216 per ton.
The crude oil in the last period was flat at 458. OPEC acknowledges the risk of a decline in crude oil demand but remains generally bullish on oil demand over the next 20 years. OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook that demand for its oil is likely to reach only 32.8 million barrels a day by 2024, down from an estimated 35 million barrels a day last year. Demand from non-OECD countries is expected to continue to grow in the future, but Opec acknowledged that OECD demand could peak by 2020. NickCunningham, an oil analyst, wrote that OPEC acknowledged that demand for its oil in the coming years was likely to be much lower than previously expected due to economic weakness, increased supply elsewhere and pressure from climate activists. However, the oil era will not be over soon, and OPEC believes that by 2040, oil and gas will still meet more than 50% of the world's energy needs. Although the growth rate of oil consumption is slowing, oil demand will increase every five years until 2040.
As of 16:55, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
Black chain outflow of more than 500 million yuan, oil plate and chemical plate loss of 82.27 million yuan and 75.18 million yuan respectively. Precious metals futures still have no financial mercy, after yesterday's 400 million funds fled, and then lost nearly 1 billion. Crude oil plate harvested quite a lot today, 127 million yuan into its account. In addition, the three major index outflows of a total of 5.43 billion yuan, compared with yesterday's inflow of 5.9 billion troops, only retained for one day.
Brief comment of SMM analyst on November 6
Aluminum: the Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened at 13940 yuan / ton in the morning, floating lower 13925 yuan / ton in the first trading session, hovering slightly in the low level, helping aluminum prices climb all the way from the low level to the intraday high of 13985 yuan / ton along the 5-day moving average, brushing the highest level since January, but the pressure at the top four levels is greater, the main company then softens its high level, and the last long position is reduced by more than a thousand hands, closing at 13955 yuan / ton, up 0%. Trading volume reduced by 48 hands to 90690 hands, position volume reduced by 6950 hands to 211000 hands, long position reduction, closed in the small negative line today, terminating the third even Yang, the center of gravity floating compared with yesterday, the upper shadow line pressure 40-day moving average, daily KDJ third-line rise slowed down. Today, aluminum prices briefly touched the Wan Si barrier, but the high long confidence is insufficient, the aluminum price has the correction, continues to pay attention to the long short position change in the evening, is expected to continue to go up the space is limited.
Lead: within the day, Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16225 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead throughout the day basically fluctuated in a narrow range below the daily average, near the end of the day, short plus code entry, suppressing lead price concussion platform to 16145 yuan / ton line, during the period once explored as low as 16060 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16155 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton, down 1.52%, position reduced by 1818 hands to 59780 hands. during this period, the price of lead concussion platform was as low as 16060 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton, down 1.52%, and the position was reduced by 1818 hands to 59780 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the big negative line, accelerated downlink, sword refers to ten thousand six integer level, taking into account the weak fundamentals and also in the decline stage of Lun lead, Shanghai lead at night or continue to explore.
Tin: Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 136850 yuan / ton, affected by the short force, the overall shock downward trend. After the opening of 136600 yuan / ton in early trading today, the market initially fell to a daily low of 136020 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 136600 yuan / ton, down 370 yuan / ton, or 0.27%. The trading volume was 15342 hands, and the position was 40128 hands, an increase of 654 hands. Today, Shanghai tin bottom rebounded, closed with a small negative line, the lower shadow line by the 60-day moving average support, above by the 5-day moving average suppressed, Shanghai tin support is expected to be around the 60-day moving average of $136000 / ton.
Nickel: the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 131230 yuan / ton today. Before noon, the overall center of gravity fluctuated in a narrow range around the daily average. In the afternoon, the center of gravity of Shanghai nickel moved down, fell below the daily average, was supported by 130300 yuan / ton, operated in a narrow range, and finally closed at 130320 yuan / ton, down 1540 yuan / ton, or 1.17%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 227000 hands to 470000 hands, and position volume decreased by 7000 hands to 202000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative column today, the top is faced with a number of moving average pressure, below there is no other support level, this night to pay attention to Shanghai nickel can hold 130000 yuan / ton integer level.
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