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[October 31 SMM lead internal morning meeting record] Lun lead night breakdown 2200 gate Shanghai lead shows a certain degree of resistance
Oct 31,2019 09:29CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) announced its third interest rate cut this year, reducing the target range of policy interest rates to 1.50%-1.75% to help maintain US economic growth at a time when the rest of the world is slowing. However, the Federal Reserve hinted that it would not cut interest rates further unless the economic situation worsened. In a statement issued in parallel with the rate cut decision, the Fed deleted the phrase "appropriate action will be taken" to maintain economic expansion, which was once seen as a sign of future interest rate cuts.

The slowdown in US economic growth in the third quarter was smaller than expected, as further contraction in business investment was offset by the resilience of consumer spending, further alleviating fears of recession in the financial markets. The initial annualized (GDP) growth rate in the third quarter was 1.9%, as the pace of enterprise inventory growth was stable and exports grew. The real estate market rebounded after six consecutive quarters of contraction. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than 2/3 of US economic activity, slowed to 2.9 per cent in the third quarter, still sound.

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead exploration rebounded, the shippers' shipping enthusiasm is general, maintain small discount shipment, among them, Shanghai market Jinsha lead to 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton quotation, south, Mu Ron lead to 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton quotation, white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton, primary lead refineries are mainly long orders, some loose orders are quoted to the SMM1# lead average discount of 100 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, the supply of reduced lead market is still not abundant, refinery quotation is strong, storage enterprises intend to purchase at lower prices, recycled refined lead discount has not been further narrowed; downstream storage enterprise demand is limited, bulk market transactions are weak.

Lead price:

With the rebound of Lun lead inventory, anti-set entry point appeared, Lun lead overnight plunge directly through the 2200 level support, but because the technical lead has not changed the upward trend, short-term attention can return to 2200; Shanghai lead trend in line with the previous expectations, that is, the outer plate is the first to weaken, the domestic will show a certain degree of resistance, pay attention to the following 16500 yuan / ton platform support in the near future.

SMM1# lead prices are expected to fall 50-100 yuan per tonne today.

Lead; lead brief review
price forecast
output

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