Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 30th

Copper: Yapanlun copper opened high at $5928 a tonne today. After the opening, the market gradually digested the Fed's interest rate cut last night. Copper prices held steady at around $5910 / tonne at noon, falling $5905.5 / tonne during the period. Until entering the European market, copper prices rose again, above the $5930 mark, as the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the recent low of the dollar supported copper prices, the European market rose 5933 dollars / ton, but then LME announced that copper stocks rose nearly 20, 000 tons, copper prices fell in a straight line. As of 17: 10, Lun Copper closed down 0.19% at $5911 a tonne, with the dollar index at 97.657 and US crude oil at $55.48 a barrel. The evening focused on the US ADP employment data for October expected to be 120000 lower than the previous value, the release of the data will judge the direction of recent Fed policy, the market is expected to cut interest rates is more likely, especially in the United States employment data and manufacturing performance to fall back, the dollar pressure on commodities to take advantage of the opportunity. At present, the copper collecting body is supported by multiple perihelion moving averages, but we should be vigilant. The "dead fork pattern" of KDJ index is gradually obvious, and the pressure of high impact at night is greater. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can stand at the $5930 / tonne level again. Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened at 47540 yuan / ton in the morning, opening at an intraday high, and then the short position increased, and the market surface all the way down to 47490 yuan / ton, the center of gravity remained stable here until the end of noon; in the afternoon, the whole Shanghai copper rose, all the way up to 47550 yuan / ton, closing at 47510 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, up 0.15%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position increased by 2600 hands to 228000 hands, trading volume increased by 18000 hands to 109000 hands. Shanghai copper index positions increased by 5448 hands to 545000 hands, trading volume increased by 19000 hands to 227000 hands. Daily Shanghai copper trend first suppressed and then rose, basically still hovering around 47500 yuan / ton, the main reason for the current market concern is the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution this week, the market is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the U. S. index also slightly fell to around 97.6, to support the high copper price to maintain stability. At present, Shanghai copper receiving Yang, has stood firmly above the 5-day moving average, the technical side is slightly good. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stabilize the 47500 yuan / ton level. Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47360 yuan / ton ~ 47410 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47380 yuan / ton ~ 47420 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper continues to cross the plate finishing, concussion in 47400 yuan / ton first line. The morning market holder quotes flat water ~ rises the water 20 yuan / ton, the end of the month will arrive, the market wait and see the mood under the transaction is weak, the few people respond, the flat water copper helplessly reduces to the discount 10 yuan / ton, the good copper quotation reduces the water 10 yuan / ton, the inquiry has increased, the transaction has improved slightly; A large number of wet copper supplies flowed out, the surge of supply dragged down the quotation of wet copper, and the discount was obviously expanded, from 40% 30 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton. Copper futures high horizontal trading, the market remains cautious wait and see; downstream continues to maintain rigid demand, traders expect greater discount prices to receive goods, the trading atmosphere is still difficult to improve before the next month. In the afternoon, the market continued to show a stalemate, although the price once again appeared discount, but there is still a gap with the willingness of the market to accept, trading has not been positive. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 10 yuan / ton-Pingshui, good copper reported 10-20 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 47370 yuan / ton-47430 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1752 / ton in the morning and rose to $1748 / ton at the beginning of the day. Then it slowly rose from its low level and began to work hard around 17:00 to break free from its daily average resistance of US $1763.5 / tonne. As of 17:30, Lun aluminum closed at $1760 / ton, trading volume was reduced by 6886 hands to 2299 hands, up $9 / ton, or 0.51%, to close at the small positive line. The center of gravity jumps to the daily moving average on 5-10-20, the daily KDJ goes up, and the MACD red line lengthens. Since the beginning of the month to explore the low point for more than two years, Lun aluminum cross plate nearly two weeks, has not been further sinking, in the United States finger continuous negative line background, more than two days of confidence gradually increased positions, yesterday a day to increase the position of more than 25000 hands, Lun aluminum was able to record four Lianyang, began exploratory contact with the upper 60-day moving average, is expected to continue to test the size of the upper space in the evening. In the evening, we will pay attention to macro data such as changes in US GDP in the third quarter and changes in ADP employment in October.

Shanghai aluminum company 1912 contract opened in the morning at 13840 yuan / ton, Shanghai aluminum around 13835 yuan / ton line, to 30 yuan / ton price difference for the range of fluctuations, the trend is relatively stable. Shanghai aluminum opened in the morning to meet part of the short to increase positions, probe lower 13810 yuan / ton intraday low, then slowly floating blocked in 13855 yuan / ton high, tail float closed at 13845 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, up 0.51%, trading volume reduced 9152 hands to 107000 hands, short position reduced 10398 hands to 230000 hands, short reduction mainly closed in the small positive line, the center of gravity rose compared with yesterday, the top pressure 20 averages, daily KDJ third line floating. Aluminum prices have recently shown horizontal trading, the overall volatility is not large, long short positions many times game, low short confidence is insufficient, today to recover some of yesterday's decline, is expected to continue to maintain the range shock in the evening, waiting for the release of supply and demand side related news and market leading trading atmosphere changes to give clear guidance.

Aluminum in the current month before noon to maintain interval fluctuations. The spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 13990-14010 yuan / ton, and the rising water is about 90-100 yuan / ton, the price is nearly 60 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, and the spot price in Hangzhou area is 1398014000 yuan / ton. Today, prices rebounded, shippers increased shipments, middlemen received the goods more actively, but because the shippers were more aggressive, trading with middlemen showed a slight stalemate, the two sides in 13990-14000 yuan / ton between the transaction is still OK, in 14000-14010 yuan / ton is more difficult to close. Today, the volume of goods received by a large household is less than 3000 tons, and without the participation of large households, the overall transaction of traders today is not as good as yesterday. Downstream manufacturers today purchase on demand, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards a return in prices, and receive mediocre goods. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. The market is light in the afternoon, the holder quotes in the vicinity of 14000 yuan / ton, to the disk rises 100 yuan / ton or so, there is almost no deal.

Lead: within a day, Lun lead opened at US $2256.5 / ton. In the Asian session, due to the strong compression force of the US $2250 / ton platform, the center of gravity of Lun lead moved down, and then moved around US $2242 / ton, entering the European session. As of 15 to 54, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $2244.5 / ton, down US $14 / ton, or 0.62 per cent. Lun lead reported a shaved small negative line, the upward trend was delayed, but the LME lead 0-3 contract maintained the back structure, and technically maintained the bullish market, alert to today's LME inventory report to increase the pressure bearing capacity of lead at night.

Within days, Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16740 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead temporarily around 16745 yuan / ton shock, after the increase and reduction, once suppressed lead price to 16640 yuan / ton, undertake bargain entry, Shanghai lead rose to the daily average line above shock, afternoon again failed to bear fruit, finally closed at 16730 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton, up 0.27%, position reduced 1298 to 59642 hands. Shanghai lead closed at the Xiao Yang line, continuing the concussion market, although the 5-day moving average upward, but the above averages are still strongly suppressed, if the outer plate lead to maintain a high and weak market, Shanghai lead at night or continue to test 16600 yuan / ton integer gate support.

Guangdong market South China lead 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; South Storage and Mongolia from 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat water quotation (sent to South Reserve); lead price continues shock market, recycled lead maintains deep discount quotation, downstream still gives priority to the purchase of recycled refined lead, primary lead market trading has been squeezed. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16575 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, the holder is active shipment, by the recycled lead price impact, the primary market transaction is bleak. Other areas such as: southern Guangxi 16545 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 130 yuan / ton; Hunan Shuikoushan 16575-16605 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 70 to 100 yuan / ton (traders); Hunan Jingui 16525 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 150 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper 16675 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead; Yunnan Zhenxing and small factory quoted 16325-16375 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16705 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton, southern, Muron lead 16695 to 16705 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 30 to 20 yuan / ton, of which white goods can be discounted 50 to 40 yuan / ton. Lead exploration in the period of low recovery, the holder's shipping enthusiasm is general, maintain the small discount shipment, and the recycled lead is still shipped with deep water, the downstream demand is limited, the bulk market transaction is not light.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2547 / ton, and at the beginning of the day, the 950C briefly rose by US $2552.5 / ton, then extended the daily moving average downward, and the overall operating center of gravity moved down to around US $2545 / ton. Entering the European trading session, the daily average line was suppressed, and Lun Zinc failed to support it. After a brief dip, it rose back to around US $2545 / ton. As of 17: 15, Lun Zinc closed at $2543.5 a tonne, down $3.50, or 0.14 per cent. Geneva zinc to stop the sun to collect yin, the overall operation above the EMA, the overseas back structure continues to support, LME zinc inventory down another 1, 000 tons to support zinc prices, pay attention to the lower 5-day EMA support at night.

Within the day, the Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 19085 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, the bulls entered the market to boost the Shanghai zinc uplink by 19170 yuan / ton, which coincided with the appearance of the suppression on the Brin Road track. During the period, the Shanghai zinc pressure dropped back to 19080 yuan / ton daily average line, but failed to make a trip. During the European trading period, the Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity rose to 19130 yuan / ton above the daily average line, closing down at 19105 yuan / ton. Down 40 yuan / ton, down 0.21%, trading volume decreased by 73490 hands to 224000 hands, position volume reduced by 10268 hands to 188000 hands, Shanghai zinc received a small negative line within the day, attached to the shadow line stabbed Brin Road on the track, mainly due to weaker spot market consumption and weaker support for zinc prices. The transfer of funds within the day shows that the market has certain expectations for the far month. Pay attention to the suppression of Brin Road at night.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 19110-19170 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 19110-19180 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 50-60 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 60 yuan / ton in November, and that of zinc was 190-19100 yuan / ton. In the first trading period, some cardholders quoted 60 yuan / ton on the 1911 contract, while the mainstream quoted price on SMM net was 5-10 yuan / ton, but the transaction was very few, the spot rising water was reduced to 60 yuan / ton to 1911 liters, and some holders quoted 5-10 yuan / ton on the average price of SMM net. In the second trading session, the low price of zinc fluctuated, and a small number of holders quoted up to 50 yuan / ton for the 1911 contract. However, the market actively closed down the source of rising water, stabilized the rise and fall of spot water, and finally reported 60 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. Zinc price high shock, downstream is still afraid of high cautious mining, spot water is still in the doldrums, but the current spot water of 50 yuan / ton receiving situation is still good.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 1904019090 yuan / ton, the quotation is concentrated in Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount narrowed from 80 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and some of the holders were willing to offer a strong offer, which was reported near 10 yuan / ton for the 12 contract, but few transactions were concluded. Entering the second trading period, the consignee is willing to receive about 40 yuan / ton on the 12 contract, and most of them are traders, and the shippers are still willing to offer 30 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. Due to the gradual dilution of orders in the downstream, the willingness to receive the goods is obviously worse, and the trading between traders is relatively deadlocked. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 1904019090 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 1904020430 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 1904019180 / ton. The contract for 1911 rose by 0-80 yuan / ton, and the stock market in Tianjin expanded from flat water to 20 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods still tends to be loose. The quotation of the high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of 0-80 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, and the quotation for the ordinary brand source is about 0-30 yuan / ton to the 11-liter water. Today, the disk is still continuing high volatility, the downstream willingness to buy is very weak, there are few transactions in the market, holders have no choice but to lower the rising water one after another, the supply of high-priced brands is gradually reduced from 80 yuan / ton to flat water for the 11 contract at the beginning of the session, and the ordinary brand is also down to about 50 yuan / ton for the 11 contract from the beginning of the market to even a small discount. Although the rise and decline is obvious, but in the disk high and environmental protection production restrictions continue to affect, the downstream buy Xing is still in the doldrums, the market transaction is extremely light. On the whole, the transaction today is once again worse than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19040-19180 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18990-19130 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of the $16500 / ton electronic disk today, the Asian session generally showed a trend of suppression and then rise, falling to $16475 / ton at the beginning of the day and then bottoming out and back up, returning to near the opening price. After the opening of the European market, the early rush to $16550 / ton after the pressure down, as of 17-30, Lunxi's latest price of $16475 / ton, a small shade line, the upper shadow line is under pressure on the 5-day moving average, the lower support is expected to be in the vicinity of $16300 / ton. This evening, you can focus on the annualized total number of new home sales in the United States after the August quarter (10,000 households) and the change in EIA crude oil stocks in the week ended September 20 (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main 2001 contract last night after the opening of 136500 yuan / ton, the overall maintenance of shock finishing situation. After the opening of 136740 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, the trend of tin consolidation in Shanghai did not change, generally around the daily average of 136400 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 136280 yuan / ton, down 270 yuan / ton, down 0.2%. The trading volume was 21048 hands, the position was 38738 hands, and the number of positions was reduced by 108 hands. Today, Shanghai tin overall maintained a horizontal consolidation situation, with a small Yin line closing, it is expected that Shanghai tin support below the integer gate near 136000 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 136,000-137000 yuan / ton, and there is actually a small amount of low-priced goods of 135500 yuan / ton in the market. Shanghai area some downstream enterprises and traders a small number of replenishment, Shanghai tin spot market today the overall transaction atmosphere is general, the Shanghai period tin 2001 contract, the current monthly ticket set cloud tin rising water 600-700 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 200-300 yuan / ton, small brand discount 400-500 yuan / ton.

Nickel: the Lennie sub-plate opened at $16800 a tonne today, with its center of gravity fluctuating slightly near the daily moving average before noon. In the afternoon, Lennie strengthened slightly and fluctuated in a narrow range above the daily moving average. In Europe, nickel rose sharply to $16920 a tonne before retreating slightly to $16895 a tonne as of 18: 00, up $75, or 0.45 per cent, from the previous session's settlement price. Trading volume fell 5393 hands to 1797, with a position of 283000. The nickel is temporarily closed at the Xiaoyang line, and the K column as a whole stands within the range of the 5 / 60-day moving average, focusing on the breakthrough of US $16900 / ton above the 60-day moving average this evening. In the evening, we focus on the initial value of the actual quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter and the quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditure in the third quarter; the EIA crude oil inventory in the week ended Oct. 25 (10,000 barrels). The early morning of the 31st focused on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision from October 30 to October 30.

Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 133350 yuan / ton, before noon, the overall operation above the daily moving average, the center of gravity around the 20-day moving average of 133300 yuan / ton around a small fluctuation. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel shock rose to 134400 yuan / ton first-line pressure, in 134000 yuan / ton narrow range shock, finally closed at 134160 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 450 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.34%, trading volume decreased by 504000 hands to 737000 hands, positions reduced by 16000 hands to 241000 hands. Shanghai Nickel 1912 closed today in the small positive line, K column through the 20-day moving average, below the 5-day moving average near the support, this evening concerned about whether Shanghai Nickel can stand steady 20-day moving average.

Spot market, today Russia nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 discount 1911 to 400, Jinchuan nickel Shanghai nickel 1911 contract general discount of 300 yuan / ton ~ 200yuan / ton, discount continues to expand slightly compared with yesterday. First, because the Shanghai Nickel 1911 and Shanghai Nickel 1912 contracts are still upside down at about 3000 yuan / ton, the holders have postponed the backward movement of the contract one after another, and try to point the shipment on the Shanghai Nickel contract 1911. Second, the price remains above 136000, and the demand is very weak. The holders have cut down the rising water for shipment one after another. in the morning inquiry stage, there are basically no transactions, and some of the holders continue to lower the rising water to stimulate spot transactions, but the effect is very small. The volume of nickel plates delivered by holders is expected to increase in November compared with October. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 135600 yuan / ton, 2000 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. In the afternoon, spot transactions are still light, the transaction situation throughout the day is general.