10.30 minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting

Disk: due to the market's strong expectations of the Fed rate cut, the US index fell slightly yesterday, down 67 points to 97.676, the outer plate metal all red, Lun aluminum rose $14.50 / ton to close at $1751 / ton, Shanghai aluminum slightly closed down at 13785 yuan / ton, down 0.29%, down 40 yuan / ton.

Macro: 1) yesterday, the monthly rate of signing index of existing home sales after September quarterly adjustment in the United States was announced. In September, 1.5% was better than the expected value of 0.8%, and the previous value was 1.4%, suggesting that the US real estate market has been somewhat boosted. In October, the Conference Board Consumer confidence Index released a value of 125.9, a forecast value of 128, and a previous value of 126.3, indicating that the level of market confidence is still high. 2) focus on macro data such as today's US ADP employment in October, the US actual GDP annualized quarterly rate in the third quarter, and the US core PCE price index in the third quarter.

Fundamentals: 1) supply side: it is reported that Xinjiang Xinfa Electrolytic Aluminum Plant is expected to resume production in mid-November. Xinjiang Xinfa electrolytic aluminum current operating capacity of 1.2 million tons, early due to electrolytic cell accident stopped production of 500000 tons, the near future ready to gradually resume production, planned production still needs to be followed up. 2) the Ministry of Ecological Environment: resolutely oppose "one size fits all". In this year's action plan for tackling key problems in autumn and winter, there are no requirements such as compulsory off-peak production and large-scale shutdown of production. We resolutely oppose perfunctory measures such as "shut down first" and "stop first," and do a good job in the prevention and control of air pollution in autumn and winter in strict accordance with the regulations. 3) the purchase price of anode foundation of Weiqiao in November is 100 yuan / ton lower than that in October, and the current exchange price is 2800 yuan / ton. Alumina prices have remained relatively stable in the near future. 4. At the) LME Week meeting, it was pointed out that the aluminum premium in the Midwest of the United States has increased from 10 cents / pound to 22 cents / pound after the introduction of steel and aluminum tariffs in the United States, and the number of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelters in the United States has dropped sharply in recent years, from 23 in 1998 to 8 at present. China's aluminum industry is booming, and China's aluminum production in 2018 is close to 57 percent of the world's total. 5) Vietnam cracked a major case of false export of US $4.3 billion worth of aluminum, which was originally made in China but was labelled as made in Vietnam and re-exported to the United States and other countries in order to evade tariffs. Vietnam Customs General Administration is cooperating with the United States Customs to investigate the case.

Spot: yesterday, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai was 13940-13960 yuan / ton, and the price was about 90-100 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous day, the price dropped nearly 40 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou was 1394013960 yuan / ton. Prices fell back yesterday, a large account took the lead in receiving more than 10,000 tons, the enthusiasm of the shippers was higher than yesterday, the middlemen received the goods at a lower price, the buyers and sellers were active, and the transaction was better than the day before. Downstream manufacturers as a result of falling prices, restrained a few days of demand was partially released, yesterday's delivery status is better than yesterday, but compared to a large pick-up is still a certain distance. East China closed yesterday as a whole.

Summary: the short-term maintenance range of aluminum price is weak shock, although the increase of electrolytic aluminum supply is expected, but the actual growth rate is slow, and the social electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to go out of storage, it is not appropriate to be too bearish, we should pay attention to the month-on-month change of consumption in November, and the impact of heating and production restriction on electrolytic aluminum supply in autumn and winter. Due to the increase in overseas alumina supply and weak demand, the internal and external risks have increased. The pattern of the inner plate is close to strong and far from weak, and pay attention to the change of monthly price difference in the later period.

(SMM Xueman)