[brief Review of SMM Copper] the market's concerns about macro demand continue to drag down the focus of copper in Shanghai.

Published: Oct 29, 2019 15:50
A brief comment on SMM copper on October 29th

SMM, 29 Oct:

Today, the main copper contract in Shanghai opened at 47480 yuan / ton in the morning, opening at an intraday high, and then copper prices fell step by step. In the second quarter of trading, the center of gravity stabilized at 47420 yuan / ton, and fell to around 47390 yuan / ton near the end of midday. In the afternoon, the center of gravity continued to move slightly down to 47360 yuan / ton, closing down at 47340 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton, or 0.29%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position decreased by 2724 hands to 225000 hands, mainly for the long reduction; trading volume decreased by 46000 hands to 90, 000 hands. Shanghai copper position continued to move backward, Shanghai copper 2001 contract daily position increased by 3380 hands to 136000 hands; Shanghai copper 2002 contract day increased position by 5988 hands to 54000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 1836 hands to 540000, while trading volume fell 53000 to 208000. Today, the trend of the market is more tired, the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai has moved down, mainly because investors are still worried about weak macroeconomic demand, crude oil has also continued to fall back, and has broken through the 55 level, coupled with the weakness of recent multinational economic data, it is also confirmed that the macro level has not improved and it is difficult for copper prices to rise. At present, Shanghai copper is supported by the solid big yin column, the MACD red column is shortened, and the technical surface is multi-copper support is insufficient. The level of 47300 yuan / ton was further tested in the evening.

(SMM Song Yi)

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Vicuña Awards 63.6-km Northern Corridor Contract as Josemaria-Filo Development Advances
4 hours ago
Vicuña Awards 63.6-km Northern Corridor Contract as Josemaria-Filo Development Advances
Read More
Vicuña Awards 63.6-km Northern Corridor Contract as Josemaria-Filo Development Advances
Vicuña Awards 63.6-km Northern Corridor Contract as Josemaria-Filo Development Advances
Vicuña Corp., the 50/50 joint venture between BHP and Lundin Mining, has awarded the construction contract for Sections A1 and A2 of the Northern Corridor in Argentina, advancing enabling infrastructure for the integrated Josemaria and Filo del Sol copper-gold-silver project. The contract was awarded to a joint venture comprising Contreras, BBC (Boetto y Buttigliengo Constructora) and San Juan-based Construmin following a technical and economic evaluation process that also considered local participation. The awarded sections cover 63.6 kilometres between Angualasto and Junta La Palca, passing through Malimán, and form the first portion of the broader Northern Corridor, which is reported at approximately 220 kilometres. The route is intended to provide future access to the Vicuña project through San Juan Province and support logistics requirements associated with upcoming development stages. The scope of work includes earthworks, embankment construction, excavation and blasting, drainage systems, retaining structures, signage and other road-safety infrastructure. Vicuña is being advanced through a staged development strategy, with Josemaria expected to form the first stage of development, followed by subsequent development of Filo del Sol. BHP has indicated that a Stage 1 final investment decision could occur as early as the end of 2026. The contract award marks another tangible infrastructure milestone for Vicuña as BHP and Lundin Mining advance one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper districts. Development of reliable road access will be important for construction logistics and future operations at the remote project. While the award does not alter the current production timetable, it demonstrates continued progress on enabling infrastructure ahead of a potential Stage 1 final investment decision.
4 hours ago
Algo Grande Intersects 30.23 m at 1.5% CuEq at Adelita, Including 3.55 m at 9.4% CuEq
4 hours ago
Algo Grande Intersects 30.23 m at 1.5% CuEq at Adelita, Including 3.55 m at 9.4% CuEq
Read More
Algo Grande Intersects 30.23 m at 1.5% CuEq at Adelita, Including 3.55 m at 9.4% CuEq
Algo Grande Intersects 30.23 m at 1.5% CuEq at Adelita, Including 3.55 m at 9.4% CuEq
Algo Grande Copper announced first assay results from its Phase II drilling programme at the Adelita Project in Sonora, Mexico, confirming high-grade copper-silver-gold skarn mineralisation at the Cerro Grande discovery. Hole AG-CG-PH2-002 intersected 30.23 metres grading 1.5% copper equivalent from 146.70 metres, comprising 0.83% copper, 47.3 g/t silver and 0.40 g/t gold. The interval included 3.55 metres grading 9.4% CuEq, containing 5.26% copper, 311.8 g/t silver and 2.22 g/t gold, as well as a 1.20-metre interval grading 15.8% CuEq, including 9.84% copper. The company said the mineralisation was intersected approximately 100 metres above the high-grade zone encountered during its Phase I drilling programme, indicating that the Cerro Grande system extends closer to surface than previously recognised. The hole was completed at a final depth of 661.8 metres. Assays remain pending below 179 metres, where a further 40.40 metres of visually mineralised core was logged between 179 and 301 metres. Additional Phase II holes along the Cerro Grande magnetic corridor also contain visually logged copper mineralisation, although assay results for those intervals remain outstanding. The Phase II programme is designed to expand the Cerro Grande skarn discovery along a 2.5-km magnetic corridor, with approximately 7,200 metres across 15 holes planned. The latest results extend high-grade copper-silver-gold mineralisation into a shallower part of the Cerro Grande system and provide further evidence of continuity along the skarn horizon. However, significant portions of the ongoing Phase II drilling remain supported only by visual observations, making forthcoming assays important in determining whether the mineralised footprint can be materially expanded. CuEq values are based on assumed recoveries, while true widths have not yet been established.
4 hours ago
Copper Ends 10-Week Winning Streak as US Tariff Uncertainty Triggers Sharp Pullback
4 hours ago
Copper Ends 10-Week Winning Streak as US Tariff Uncertainty Triggers Sharp Pullback
Read More
Copper Ends 10-Week Winning Streak as US Tariff Uncertainty Triggers Sharp Pullback
Copper Ends 10-Week Winning Streak as US Tariff Uncertainty Triggers Sharp Pullback
According to foreign media reports, copper recorded its first weekly decline since June as uncertainty over potential US tariffs on refined copper triggered a sharp reversal from record highs. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at around US$14,238/mt on Friday, leaving prices approximately 1.2% lower for the week and ending a 10-week winning streak. Copper had reached a record US$14,875/mt before falling 3.6% on Thursday, after Reuters reported that the White House had not yet made a decision on whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports. The pullback reflected a reduction in bullish positioning following the recent rally. However, underlying physical-market conditions remained relatively tight. Available LME copper inventories stood at 117,600 tonnes, while copper stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 13% week on week to 54,780 tonnes, their lowest level since January 2024. Near-term tightness on the LME also eased. The cash-to-three-month spread shifted into contango on Thursday, with cash copper trading at a US$4.50/mt discount to the three-month contract, indicating reduced concern over immediate metal availability. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy remains an important driver of copper flows. Reuters reported that the White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs, as officials weigh concerns over higher manufacturing costs against the potential benefits of encouraging domestic mining. Expectations of possible tariffs had previously encouraged greater copper flows into the US, contributing to regional inventory imbalances. Copper's retreat from record highs suggests that tariff expectations had become an important component of recent bullish positioning. While uncertainty over US trade policy could continue to generate short-term volatility, falling Chinese inventories and geographically concentrated stocks indicate that underlying physical supply conditions remain relatively tight. The shift of the LME spread into contango, however, suggests that immediate availability concerns have eased compared with earlier in the rally.
4 hours ago
[brief Review of SMM Copper] the market's concerns about macro demand continue to drag down the focus of copper in Shanghai. - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)