[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 2019 1028: loss of production capacity expectations failed, Coke led the decline in black

Volume and price: RB2001 fell 17 yuan / ton from the previous trading day to close at 3327 yuan / ton; HC2001 closed down 19 yuan / ton from the previous trading day to close at 3341 yuan / ton; I2001 closed down 7.5 yuan / ton from the previous trading day to close at 627 yuan / ton; J2001 closed down 46 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day to close at 1747.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB2001 closed 3.04 million hands, while positions decreased by 77800 to 3.25 million, while I2001 closed 1.7 million, while positions increased by 3274 to 1.65 million. In terms of capital flow, RB2001 had a net outflow of 252 million yuan today and a net outflow of 82.59 million yuan in I2001. Viewpoint: narrow concussion. Today, Shandong Province released the draft on suspending the elimination of 5.5 m ramming coke oven by 2025. The document preliminarily points out that 5.5 m ramming coke oven will be suspended by 2025. The failure of environmental protection expectations has led to a sharp drop in coke by more than 50 points, driving the whole black system to rush up and fall back. In the early days, everyone generally hoped that the coke production capacity would be promoted in the fourth quarter, and the short funds would be more cautious. Today, With the loss of production capacity expectations, pessimism spread, disk position down, however, fell back to 1830 near there is a strong support, disk short-term or shock repair, at this time empty extremely easy to be set, can wait for the rebound after the high sell short; Iron ore, recently, Vale officially announced that Samarco has obtained a business license, will resume business activities in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, and the latest phase of port inventory data increased by 1.12 million tons compared with last week, the daily average port dredging volume has also declined, the uplink drive is weak, in addition to today's disk up to the pressure level near, blocked fall back, expected short-term shock operation; Thread today followed slightly weaker, but compared with raw materials, is still relatively strong, after all, short-term trading volume is OK, today's building materials transaction 220000 tons, indicating that demand has not yet fully weakened, short-term or will still maintain a strong shock pattern. Strategy: RB2001 contract range (3250,3400); I2001 contract range (600680). Wait and see for a while, waiting for a chance to bounce and sell short. Pay attention to iron ore 1-5 normal sleeve. Disclaimer: this information is based on a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any possible loss of information. We suggest that investors should independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek professional financial advice. This information does not provide tailor-made investment strategies.