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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 25
Oct 25,2019 20:47CST
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Source:SMM
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 25
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today, Yapanlun copper opened at US $5877.5 / tonne, which was basically confirmed in the morning due to the postponement of Brexit, and the strike at the superimposed Chilean copper mine gradually resumed. As a result, copper prices fell by US $5862 / ton in the morning, and after short-term low exploration, the center of gravity was basically maintained at around US $5868 / ton at noon. Subsequently, at the end of the Asian session, as the market was expected to cut interest rates at the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting, the low level of the US dollar gave copper the opportunity to pick up the price, and the bulls took the opportunity to increase their positions, reaching US $5890 / ton in the short term. As of 16: 00, Lun Copper closed down 0.07% at $5874 / tonne, with the dollar index at 97.614 and US crude oil at $56.06 per barrel. Focusing on the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in October and the Fed meeting next week, there are strong calls to cut interest rates again, and the low level of the dollar has led to a rally in commodities. At present, the copper center of gravity is stable above the recent moving average, the MACD index is strong, but it is necessary to guard against the negative signal that the KDJ index is about to appear. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can stand at the $5890 / tonne level.

Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 47340 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the short position increased one after another, and the center of gravity moved slightly down to 47330 yuan / ton. in the second quarter, the market continued to fall to a daily low of 46260 yuan / ton, and then the long center of gravity moved up to 47300 yuan / ton until the end of noon. In the afternoon, the market was bullish, the bears reduced their positions and left one after another, and the bulls entered the market one after another. in the afternoon, the market broke through the daily average line all the way to the highest level of 47420 yuan / ton in the day, and closed at 47390 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, up 0.17%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position decreased by 932 hands to 224000 hands, trading volume decreased by 1312 hands to 13000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 2430 hands to 541000, while trading volume fell 11000 to 28000. The overall upward trend today was mainly due to the poor performance of US economic data in recent days, with most investors expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, the dollar weakened in afternoon trading, and Shanghai Copper was boosted by a higher focus. At present, Shanghai copper in Yang, MACD continues to show a green column. Evening test Shanghai copper can continue to stabilize 47300 yuan / ton high.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount 20 ~ 10 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47190 yuan / ton ~ 47240 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47210 yuan / ton ~ 47260 yuan / ton. The copper rush height of Shanghai period is blocked in the first line of 47200 yuan / ton. According to the announcement of the Shanghai Internal Revenue Bureau, starting today, the market can no longer issue the current monthly ticket, fully open the quotation for the next monthly ticket, the market is abundant, and the holder's willingness to exchange cash is strengthened. Pingshui copper appeared a discount quotation early in the morning, and good copper can only be maintained in the first line of rising water 10 yuan / ton, because the inquiry atmosphere is also relatively light, very few people want the goods, and Pingshui copper is the first to drop to 20 yuan / ton. A small number of lower prices, good copper reported to be reduced to flat water, although the transaction is still weak, but the holder is not willing to discount the shipment. Wet copper kept pace with the market price reduction, and the discount continued to expand, from 30 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton. Although copper prices have fallen, but still in a high position, the market remains cautious wait-and-see; traders expect a larger discount price to receive goods, the market buying low is still the main reason for the rise and fall. In the afternoon, as the source of low-cost goods in the market was welcomed by traders, the situation of receiving goods at low prices improved, which also made the holders take the opportunity to pull up the spot quotation, but with the arrival of the weekend, the recognition participation in the quotation market was lower, so the transaction returned to the stalemate. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 10-Pingshui 0 yuan / ton, good copper reported 10-20 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 47260 yuan / ton-47350 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1717.5 / ton in the morning, returned slightly along the 5-day moving average at the beginning of the day, and hovered near the $1722 / ton moving average for 60 days on the way, with a price difference of less than 5 US dollars / tonne. There were no major ups and downs during the day, and the trend was stable. As of 16:20, it closed at $1720.5 / ton, up $3.50 / ton, or 0.26%, closing at the small positive line, with the center of gravity below all EMA. It is expected to maintain low range fluctuations in the evening and continue to focus on macro climate changes and macro data such as the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in October.

Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened at 13850 yuan / ton in the morning, the opening of the market, Shanghai aluminum recorded a long negative line, the decline of 13805 yuan / ton near, the first trading stage hovered in 13815 yuan / ton line, into the second trading interval short into duoping aluminum prices continue to explore, shock fell to 13775 yuan / ton day low, due to the short-term space below the limited, then the long short entry short positions, aluminum prices low return, Along the 5-day moving average climbed 13825 yuan / ton, closed at 13805 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton, down 0.07%, trading volume reduced 7640 hands to 94144 hands, position reduced 2738 hands to 235000 hands, closed in the small negative line, back to give up all the gains yesterday, the daily K line is below the 20-day moving average, daily KDJ three-line aggregation seems to have a downward trend. Today, the trend of aluminum in Shanghai is tangled, in view of the fact that it is difficult to put heavy pressure on inventories to go to short positions, and the expectation of weaker forward consumption also makes it difficult for aluminum prices to break up substantially, it is expected to continue to maintain weak volatility in the range in the evening and continue to pay attention to long short positions and changes in the trading atmosphere in the market.

Aluminum concussion fell by noon of the month. In the morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 13990-14000 yuan / ton. With the decline of aluminum in the future, the spot price has dropped to 1397013980 yuan / ton, and the price has remained around 100-110 yuan / ton. The price is basically flat compared with yesterday, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 13990-14000 yuan / ton. In the morning, a large customer took the lead in receiving the goods, the quotation was relatively high, the holder approved and actively shipped the goods, the aluminum price fell back in the second trading stage, the shipper's shipping enthusiasm did not decrease, but the quotation was relatively strong, the rising water remained stable, and the middleman actively received the goods, but the two sides still showed a stalemate in the transaction. Downstream today is still on-demand procurement, fear of heights is obvious, and did not show weekend stock sentiment. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. Afternoon aluminum to maintain range fluctuations, the market trading is very light, a small number of holders of general aluminum quotation in 13970-13980 yuan / ton, the disk rose near 90 yuan / ton, the actual few transactions.

 

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at $2220 / ton. In the Asian period, Lun lead basically revolved around the daily average line. In the afternoon, the bulls slowly entered the market and continued to push the lead price upward. In the European session, Lun lead once hit $2233 / ton. After the upward momentum came to a standstill, by 17: 31, Lun lead temporarily closed at $2231 / ton, up $5.50 / ton, up 0.29%, and its position increased by 1552 hands to 131088 hands. Lun lead reported barefoot small positive line, daily K line up along the 5-day moving average, the upstream channel has not yet slowed down, it is expected that at night Lun lead may continue to strengthen.

Within days, Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16735 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, short inertia pressed lead price to 16605 yuan / ton, but 16600 yuan / ton integer platform has strong support, Shanghai lead returned to 16785 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16750 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, up 0.54%, position increased by 596 hands to 58806 hands. Shanghai lead temporarily closed in the Zhongyang line, stop falling and return to rise, recover some of the weekly decline, coupled with Wipang lead into the European period continued to strengthen, expected to continue to drive Shanghai lead back up at night, but the upper averages are strongly suppressed, upstream space may be limited.

Shanghai market Jinsha lead 16645-16655 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 20-10 yuan / ton quotation; Ambrose lead 16635 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 30 yuan / ton, of which white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Lead weak shock, coupled with recycled lead to maintain a deep water state, although traders ship with discount, but still passive shipment, downstream only on-demand procurement, market transactions have not been significantly improved.

Guangdong market South China lead 16650 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price flat water quotation; Guangxi south 16530 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price discount 120 yuan / ton quoted from the factory. Lead prices to suspend the downward trend, holders accompany the quotation, and downstream demand is not strong, bulk order market transactions in general. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang scattered single temporarily do not quote, mainly long single; Jinli 16500-16550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150100 yuan / ton quotation. Downstream storage battery market demand weakens, some refineries still ship goods with discount, bulk single market trading volume is limited. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16600-16620 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50-30 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16650 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; Yunnan Zhenxing 16350 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton.

 

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2496.5 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, Lun Zinc fell sharply, and its operating center of gravity sank to US $2475 / tonne. During the period, it tried to measure the intensity of daily moving average suppression, but failed. After a short period of narrow shock finishing, Lun Zinc returned to power and moved up to around US $2490 / tonne. Subsequently, Lun Zinc climbed again and exceeded the integer level of US $25000 / ton, by 17: 11. Lun Zinc closed at $2513, up $16, or 0.64 per cent. Geneva zinc received three consecutive positive, the lower averages are neatly upward, the KDJ index is also turned up, indicating that Lun zinc may have a certain degree of action energy, superimposed LME zinc inventory constantly refreshed 20 years low, overseas BACK structure slightly expanded, within the day a large number of confidence to boost zinc prices, giving zinc prices to climb power. Pay attention to the suppression on the upper Brin Road at night.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18910 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc fell sharply to 18705 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, and then showed a steady downward trend. Under the support of 18500 yuan / ton integer level below, Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded. Slightly uplink to 18745 yuan / ton shock operation, the tail fell again and probed down to 18655 yuan / ton, closing down 18675 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton, down 0.95%, trading volume increased 155000 to 359000 hands, Positions increased by 16390 to 214000. Within the day, Shanghai zinc received the Dayin line, supported by the lower 18500 yuan / ton integer gate. Today, the social inventory of the three places recorded a small increase and the US index stabilized to make the zinc price under pressure. During the day, the bears came into the market one after another to suppress the zinc price. However, under the drive of the outer plate and the macro warming, the falling space of Shanghai zinc is limited, short-term or partial shock arrangement, and pay attention to the support strength of Brin Road off the track at night.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18790-18875 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18800-18875 yuan / ton, that of Shuangyan was 90-100 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 100 yuan / ton in November, and that of Shuangyan was 18720-18805 yuan / ton. Today, the last day of the long single, the Shanghai stock market spot water further decline, some of the morning tentative offer to 1911 yuan / ton, the market almost no transaction, the market quotation down to 100 yuan / ton, but did not improve again to 90 yuan / ton. In addition, the impact of today's bill problem is basically over, and the market quotation is basically unified for next month's ticket quotation. Overall, trading in today's trade market is relatively light, but the price downward after the downstream enthusiasm to pick up again, Jiangsu and Zhejiang traders feedback low local inventory, or consider moving goods from Shanghai to the local downstream.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18640-18740 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on the Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 20-10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than the Shanghai stock market discount narrowed from 100 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply is slightly tightened. In the morning, the quotation of the holder is concentrated in the discount of 20 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, entering the second trading period, the quotation of the trader is concentrated in the discount of 10 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. Disk low concussion, rising water slightly improved, downstream cautious wait-and-see, weekend stock willingness is low, traders still ship more, contribution must be traded. On the whole, today's investors are contributed by traders, and the transaction atmosphere is basically flat compared with yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18640-18740 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18740-20100 yuan / ton, that of ordinary brands was 1874018880 / ton, and that of 1911 contract was 60-120 yuan / ton. The rising water of Tianjin market was slightly expanded from 30 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods tends to be loose. The quotation of the source of high-priced brand is concentrated in the vicinity of 100-120 yuan / ton for 11 contract, and the quotation for the source of ordinary brand is about 6090 yuan / ton for 11-liter water. Although the northern region of environmental protection production restrictions affect some of the downstream purchasing demand, but today the center of gravity of the disk is obvious, the shippers are more willing to ship, the rising water is also loose, superimposed on the northern haze dissipated high speed to return to normal, downstream bargain mining and buying contribution must be traded. On the whole, today's deal is better than yesterday's. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18740-18880 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18690-18830 yuan / ton.

 

Tin: after the opening of US $16820 / ton today, the Asian session to the beginning of the European market, Lunxi generally maintained a horizontal arrangement near the opening price, as of 18: 15, the latest price of Lunxi is US $16795 / ton, showing a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 10-day moving average, the lower shadow line is near the 5-day and 40-day moving averages, and the support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of $16500 / ton. Take a look at the final consumer confidence index at the University of Michigan in October.

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 138200 yuan / ton, the overall trend of recovery, the initial shock rose to the night high 139380 yuan / ton after the hindered pressure fell back to above the opening price. After the opening of 138430 yuan / ton in early trading today, the early trading quickly fell to a daily low of 137560 yuan / ton, and finally returned to the opening price of 138200 yuan / ton last night, showing a cross star line, located near the 5-10 moving average, it is expected that the support below Shanghai tin is around 137000 yuan / ton, and the resistance above is around 140000 yuan / ton. Short-term Shanghai tin may maintain the consolidation pattern.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price held steady at 137000-139500 yuan / ton today, the supply of low prices in the Shanghai market decreased slightly, and the transactions of smelters and traders in the day were all on the weak side. The Shanghai-tin spot market is generally weak. The monthly ticket cover of the Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract is 800-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount is 100-300 yuan / ton, and small-brand discount is 500600 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $16860 / tonne today. After the opening, Lunni's pressure daily average line fluctuated downwards, to $16700 / tonne line was supported, stop the fall shock. At noon, the center of gravity was arranged around $16760 / ton horizontal plate. In the afternoon, or affected by the downside of the dollar index, Lunni pulled up to near the opening price and walked out of the U-shaped trend, at $16840 / ton as of 16: 30, down $20 / ton, or 0.12%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 4099 hands to 1750 hands, while position increased by 761 hands to 281261 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the Yin Cross, below the 60-day moving average is supported, pay attention to Lunni at $16800 / tonne of the first line of concussion. Tonight, focus on the final consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in October.

Shanghai nickel 1912 contract opened today at 133180 yuan / ton, during the day, Shanghai nickel as a whole around the daily average line 133200 yuan / ton narrow shock operation, and finally closed at 133340 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day up 1490 yuan / ton, up 1.13%, trading volume decreased by 440000 hands to 837000 hands, position volume reduced by 28000 hands to 294000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative line, has stood above the multiple EMA, the upper 20 EMA 134000 yuan / ton level pressure is strong, pay attention to 134000 yuan / ton first-line resistance this night.

In the spot market, today Russia nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 discount 1911 to discount 150 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract general discount 150 yuan / ton to flat water. Russian nickel Jinchuan rising water continues to decline, mainly due to the continuation of the previous phenomenon, Shanghai nickel and Wuxi nickel price difference is large, stimulate steel mills to purchase nickel beans in Wuxi plate, nickel plate demand is restrained, Shanghai spot market is weak. Second, nickel prices rebounded in the second half of the week after a high shock, curbing spot trading. And Jinchuan company recently high active shipment, some traders can discount Jinchuan, but because downstream demand has been depressed, Jinchuan nickel discount transaction phenomenon. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 136200 yuan / ton, 1700 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. Nickel prices continue to fluctuate around the daily average in the afternoon, and market sentiment continues in the morning, with no improvement in transactions.

 

 

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