SMM, 25 Oct:
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology led the drafting of the "New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (hereinafter referred to as "the plan") outflow, according to the plan, by 2025, new energy vehicle sales accounted for 20% of the total vehicle sales that year; by 2030, new energy vehicle sales accounted for 40% of the total vehicle sales that year. Although the development of the industry in 2019 is lower than expected, the general trend of the development of new energy vehicles is firm and should be optimistic for a long time. Whether it is the double integral policy, or a variety of supporting facilities such as charging pile construction, will produce new benefits and promote the future development of new energy vehicles. We believe that as Tesla and other foreign companies enter the Chinese market, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicles and power batteries will pick up in 2020. SMM expects China to produce 1.35 million new energy vehicles in 2019, up 8 per cent from a year earlier. China's production of new energy vehicles in 2020 was 1.8 million, up 33 per cent from a year earlier. The number of power batteries installed in China in 2019 was 64GWhH, up 8 per cent from a year earlier. The number of power batteries installed in China in 2020 was 83GWhH, up 30 per cent from a year earlier. Demand for new energy vehicles and power batteries grew at a compound rate of 36.7 per cent and 30.8 per cent between 2016 and 2020, respectively.
Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: the price of domestic cobalt is flat this week. The price of the outer plate is stable, the domestic trading situation is not good, wait and see the atmosphere is strong, the northern big factory quotation is firm, the trading price is flat. Cobalt hydroxide, some sellers have a small number of zero single shipment willingness, but downstream worried about the future price fall, lower bidding, the psychological price difference between the two sides is large, the transaction is difficult. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 28.5-295000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of cobalt hydroxide in SMM is $11-12 per pound, the average price is the same as last week.
Cobalt salt and nickel salt: the price of cobalt sulfate has been significantly loosened this week. Although the big factory continues to insist on the 60000 level quotation, it has encountered no market price. Small and medium-sized manufacturers are worried about the future, some waste raw materials cobalt sulfate prices down 55000 yuan / ton. Cobalt chloride producers adhere to the 70,000 yuan / ton barrier, the current demand is OK, the supplier attitude is firm, cobalt chloride price is relatively strong. The price of cobalt sulfate in SMM is 56, 000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 7.1-76000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of nickel sulfate in SMM battery grade is 30000-31000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Cobalt tetroxide: the price of cobalt tetra is under pressure. Downstream worry about the future price fall, the purchase intention price is lower, the big factory quotation is firm, the trading stalemate. The cost of cobalt sulfate system does fall back, and the price of cobalt is expected to decline slightly in the future. The current price of SMM cobalt oxide is 22-230000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Ternary precursor: the trading price of the body before the yuan was flat on Wednesday, and the order delivery was the main market in the middle of the month, with light trading. As the price of cobalt sulfate comes under pressure, the price of the precursor may be at risk of falling back. The price of SMM ternary precursor (type 523) is 10.1-106000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622) is 10.8-112000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium carbonate: lithium carbonate prices are slightly lower this week than last week. Due to the pressure of cost, the current willingness to reduce prices is opposed to the fundamentals of market supply and demand. However, as the current market is in the buyer's market, enterprises in order to ensure customer resources, price reduction is inevitable. In the case of sufficient supply in the market, buyers are not willing to take over high-priced products, industrial grade lithium carbonate price increase is more difficult. This week, the price of lithium carbonate in SMM battery grade is 5.8-61000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. This week, the price of SMM industrial grade zero lithium carbonate is 4.8-52000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with last week.
Lithium hydroxide: the price of lithium hydroxide is flat this week compared with last week. At present, the development of the domestic high nickel market is stable, the demand for lithium hydroxide has not improved significantly, and the trading is only concentrated in several leading factories. Lithium hydroxide large plant customer population is stable, the production line is close to full production. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have been affected by weak demand and rapid decline in prices, the operating rate has declined. This week, the price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 6.1-66000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium cobalt: the price of lithium cobalt continues to rise, and some small and medium-sized lithium cobalt battery plants continued to make up sporadic orders this week, allowing manufacturers to land high quotations. The price of lithium cobalt sulfate in SMM4.35V is 24.2-252000 yuan / ton, up 7000 yuan / ton from last week.
Ternary materials: this week, the ternary materials market maintained last week's state, the power market is still quiet, the digital market demand is stable. Some manufacturers say orders may continue to fall in the fourth quarter due to poor sales of terminal new energy vehicles. The price of SMM ternary material (type 523) is 14.7-155000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary material (model 622) is 16.5-172000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium iron phosphate: the price of lithium iron phosphate has fallen this week. At present, the pricing mode of lithium iron phosphate material factory is in a translucent state, and the downstream battery enterprises have a strong control over the material price under the pressure of reducing cost. Although the demand for lithium iron phosphate materials has been strong since the fourth quarter, the price of lithium iron phosphate has declined slightly with the continuous decline in the price of lithium carbonate upstream and the decline in production costs after the recovery of the operating rate of various enterprises. This week, SMM lithium iron phosphate (power) price is 4.25-45500 yuan / ton, the average price is 500 yuan / ton lower than last week.
Lithium manganate: the price of lithium manganate is flat this week compared with last week. At present, the competition in the supply market of lithium manganate is fierce. Under the condition of stable demand, the price of lithium manganate continues to bear pressure due to the decline in the price of raw materials in the upper reaches. This week SMM lithium manganate (volume) price is 2.6-32000 yuan / ton, the average price is unchanged from last week. This week, the price of SMM lithium manganate (power type) is 4.3-45000 yuan / ton, the average price is unchanged from last week.
Future forecast:
SMM maintains its previous view that cobalt prices fluctuated a year ago. Lithium, with the extension of mining projects, ore storage process slowed down, historical ore inventory will gradually be converted to smelting products for terminal digestion, lithium prices are expected to improve this year.
SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team
Hong Lu 021-51666814
Qin Jingjing 021-51666828
