[22 October SMM lead internal morning meeting record]

2019.10.22

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro: the British government had planned to submit Johnson's Brexit agreement on the 21st to organize debates and votes. But the Speaker of the House of Commons, Berkau, said several lawmakers believed that doing so would break the parliamentary practice that the same issue could not be submitted twice in the same session, after he blocked the vote on the 21st Brexit agreement. As a result, the pound fell from the 1.30 level. Overnight, the Turkish lira fell to 1.3% against the dollar, refreshing its lows, and US President Donald Trump said the US would impose tariffs and sanctions on Turkish goods if Turkey behaved improperly in Syria. According to the latest figures, the prices of new commercial housing rose in 53 of China's 70 large and medium-sized cities in September from 55 in August; Nanning led the way in month-on-month increases, with Beijing and Guangzhou flat, Shanghai up 0.5% and Shenzhen up 1.2%.

Fundamentals: the lead high level falls back, the holder quotation goes with the market, and the downstream market consumption is weak, coupled with the recycled refined lead to maintain a deep discount (600-400 yuan / ton on the average price of electrolytic lead), the mood of receiving goods is not high, and the trading in the bulk market is bleak. Among them, the south of Shanghai market, Mu Ron lead to the 1911 contract discount of 30 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton quotation, the primary lead refinery is mainly long single, part of the single price to SMM1# lead discount of 100-150 yuan / ton ex-factory; In the aspect of recycled lead, the market supply of reduced lead is very abundant, especially in Jiangxi region, the price of reduced lead shows no sign of rising. At the same time, the discount of recycled refined lead is expanded, and the average discount price of electrolytic lead is 400-600 yuan / ton. Downstream battery enterprises do not hold optimistic expectations for the future market, and hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Lead price: Lun lead to accept bald barefoot Dayang line, the long market has not yet stopped, within the day to see if Lun lead can stand at the $2200 / ton gate, and open the uplink channel. Shanghai lead temporarily closed at the Xiao Yang line, stopped falling and stabilized, the 60-day moving average still supports the bottom lead price, but the recycled lead continues to maintain the deep sticking water, as well as the sign that the consumption weakens, or continues to shake the long position confidence, pay attention to whether Shanghai lead will lose the Wan Qi pass again in the day. SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat or down 50 yuan / tonne today.