2019.10.21

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro: it is reported. British Prime Minister Johnson's Brexit process was thwarted, and the House of Commons decided to postpone the vote on the Brexit agreement, forcing Johnson to formally ask the European Union to postpone the Brexit date to January 31 next year. Johnson, however, will again ask the House of Commons to vote for his Brexit agreement on Monday. Clarida, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, has left room for a third consecutive rate cut, which markets are expected to cut in October. Yi Gang said the current RMB exchange rate is at an "appropriate" level. Monday ushered in the people's Bank of China LPR monthly adjustment window, this week TMLF operation or reappearance.

Fundamentals: lead rush high and fall back, the holder quotation meets the high active shipment, part continues to expand the quotation discount, but the downstream risk aversion is less, the recycled refined lead discount expands to 500-400 yuan / ton to leave the factory, some may discount 500 yuan / ton to the factory, causes the spot trade market shipment to be extremely passive, the transaction is few. Among them, the Shanghai market Jinsha, southern, Mu Ron lead to the 1911 contract discount of 30 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton, white goods can be discounted 5040 yuan / ton, the primary lead refinery is mainly long single, part of the single offer to the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100-150 yuan / ton; In the aspect of recycled lead, the market supply of reduced lead is very abundant, especially in Jiangxi region, the price of reduced lead shows no sign of rising. At the same time, the discount of recycled refined lead is expanded, and the average price of electrolytic lead is 500-600 yuan / ton. Downstream battery enterprises do not hold optimistic expectations for the future market, and hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Lead price: Lun lead closed down hammerhead small negative line, the uplink channel is suspended, and the 5, 10 day moving average trend has flattened one after another, Lun lead station 2200 US dollars / ton pass failed, daily demand cautious Lun lead may appear correction. Shanghai lead temporary acceptance of the small negative line, has not yet fallen below the Wan Qi level, taking into account the suspension of the upward pace of lead, within the day Shanghai lead may continue to test Wan Qi support. SMM1# lead prices are expected to fall 50 yuan per tonne today.