SMM forecast: it is estimated that the ex-factory price of rebar in late October will be reduced by 130,150 yuan / ton, that is, the third-grade snail (3750-3770 yuan / ton) will be adjusted, the cost of East China Kuti will be 3700-3720 yuan / ton, and the factory cost will be 36503670 yuan / ton. Fundamental analysis: despite the strong performance of terminal demand, but East China regional steel mills are willing to take the initiative to produce, inventory pressure is still shrouded in the heart of the market a thick cloud. Due to the heavy local supply pressure, the market mentality is still bearish, and the operation of selling goods at low prices and even overselling is not uncommon. As a result, the spot price of thread in Hangzhou market has dropped by 140yuan / ton, which has reached the low level of 3690 yuan / ton. Steel mills, ten days due to futures delivery, order ratio discount, but due to the delivery of single resource specifications, but to a certain extent dragged down the spot transaction. Generally speaking, in the case of a large gap between the current ex-factory price and the market price (210 yuan / ton of steel per ton), and the subsequent price may be difficult to rise, the probability of this ten-day steel mill will be reduced by 130-150 yuan / ton. Make up for the difference: according to SMM iron and steel data, the average selling price of sand steel resources in Hangzhou is 3744.3 yuan / ton, with a loss of 105.7 yuan per ton of steel. According to research, as of October 18, Hangzhou area transaction price in 3690 yuan / ton, according to today's estimated actual loss of about 160 yuan / ton, the actual loss of 100-120 yuan / ton. Therefore, the ten-day steel plant has a high probability of making up 100 yuan per ton.
In terms of cost: according to the calculation of SMM iron and steel data model, based on the US $89.5 gold mine, the thread cost of the long process steel plant is 3250 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 370yuan / ton. The data show that as of today, the average thread profit of the steel mill in October is 386.3 yuan / ton. Order ratio: Shagang 30% discount on thread planned volume in October (10% discount last month)