SMM10, March 16: today's non-ferrous metals market red and green, by the end of the day, Shanghai copper fell 0.13%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.11%, Shanghai lead rose 0.03%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.16%, Shanghai tin rose 0.91%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.61%.
Among them, copper, MMG Limited released its production report for the third quarter of this year on Thursday, producing 115864 tons of copper and 68628 tons of zinc in the three months ended Sept. 30. Since 22 September, a number of road blocks have occurred in certain sections of Chumbivilicas Province in the Cusco region, from Las Bambas50 km to 250km, and roads entering and leaving the mine have been blocked. Assuming full recovery in the coming days, copper production is expected to be slightly below the guidance range of 385000 to 405000 tonnes in 2019.
On the aluminum side, (Emirates Global aluminum PJSC,EGA, the global aluminium company of the United Arab Emirates, said recently that its Al Taweelah smelter has produced 600000 tons of alumina since it went into production in April. The plant expects to produce more than 1 million tons of alumina by the end of the year. The plant is not yet operating at full capacity, with an average daily output of 88 per cent of full capacity last month. The plant plans to reach full nameplate capacity within the next year. Once the plant is at full capacity, annual alumina production is expected to reach 2 million tons, enough to meet 40 per cent of EGA alumina demand.
On the tin side, (ITA), the International Tin Association, said China's refined tin production fell 9.5 per cent to 116450 tonnes in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period a year earlier, and is expected to continue to decline by November. China's refined tin production in September was about 126000 tonnes, down 0.8 per cent from the previous month and 17.6 per cent lower than a year earlier, according to the latest ITA survey, the third consecutive month of production cuts in September.
On the zinc front, Guoxin Futures said it was less concerned about Brexit. Recently, overseas Vedanta,Nrystar has announced the closure of its mines, a total of about 65000 tons of reduced production capacity, at the same time, LME inventory once again hit a record low, SMM on Wednesday zinc ingot social inventory fell 4300 tons, downstream consumption gradually recovered under the expected recovery of infrastructure, the future should not be overly bearish. Macroscopically, GDP in the third quarter of today reduced market risk appetite less than expected, with the future focusing on Brexit. Last night, the EU and the UK announced a better-than-expected Brexit agreement to stimulate the market, but the UK will hold parliament on Saturday to give a final conclusion. Once the British Parliament refuses to pass the new Brexit agreement, it may cause sharp fluctuations in the financial markets and suggest that we wait and see to control the risk. On the domestic side, according to the enterprise production scheduling plan, the galvanizing start rate in October is expected to be 81.04%, down 1.06 percentage points from the previous month, and 3.62 percentage points from the same period last year. According to SMM, the main reason is that a galvanized pipe enterprise in South China stopped production in October, and at the beginning of October, Hebei galvanized enterprises still received the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions. "[SMM Survey] the operating rate of galvanized enterprises fell by 1.06% to 81.04% in September compared with the previous month. How do you expect to perform in October?
In the black series, iron ore rose 0.74%, thread 0.18%, hot coil 0.09%, coke 0.22% and coking coal 0.94%. Today, the black system as a whole opened low and walked high, near the close of a wave of high to complete the breakthrough rebound. Only coke fell slightly. Iron ore, Henan Province heavy pollution weather orange plus local production restrictions, as well as previous production data from Vale and Rio Tinto once caused iron ore to fall sharply. Iron ore 2001 fell to a recent month low of 598.5 today. But with iron ore rising from a 2 per cent drop to a 1 per cent rise around 14:00, it appears that the market has finally eased its extremely pessimistic expectations for the black sector. Next, let's look forward to next week.
Crude oil fell 0.82% in the previous period. Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) on Friday cut its Brent oil price forecast for 2019 to $64 a barrel from $66, and cut its 2020 Brent oil forecast to $63.50 from $67.50 a barrel. In addition, the bank revised its forecast for US WTI crude oil from $58.77 a barrel to $56.88 a barrel in 2019 and sharply reduced its 2020 WTI oil price forecast to $58.07 from $61.76. Royal Bank of Canada says U. S. crude oil production will continue to grow after 2019-21. However, UBS analyst GiovanniStaunovo said in a research note that crude oil stocks are likely to fall in the coming weeks to support oil prices in the fourth quarter.
The new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
Coke funds are more mobile, yesterday out of 500 million yuan after today all taken back. This was followed by soybean meal, which, though unsuccessful, still flowed into more than $600m. Although glass futures led the rise in commodities, it only flowed into more than 200 million yuan. Funds continued to pour in this week as a whole, with an inflow of 1.2 billion yuan today, with a black inflow of nearly 1 billion yuan. Most of the day fell or was related to the increase in short positions, but it rose sharply near the end of the day, accompanied by a reduction in positions suggesting that some of the funds were safe. The second was the influx of more than 600 million yuan into the feed sector.
Brief comment of SMM analyst on October 18th
Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46670 yuan / ton, after the opening of the center of gravity moved up to 46700 yuan / ton, then the center of gravity remained stable until the end of the afternoon, the opening of the afternoon decline, the center of gravity down to 46590 yuan / ton near shock finishing, and then slightly rebounded to close at 46570 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton, down 0.13%. Shanghai copper main contract daily reduction of 236 hands to 236000 hands; trading volume increased by 15000 hands to 120000 hands; Shanghai copper index positions increased 3600 hands to 571000 hands; trading volume increased 9970 hands to 232000 hands. Today, the market trend is weak, the overall operation below the daily average, as a result of the release of domestic GDP data for the third quarter this morning, the market confidence continued to decline; the recent crude oil trend is still tired, EIA and API crude oil stocks rose sharply, making oil prices basically fluctuating around 53 low levels, reflecting the market's concerns about the demand side, thus further suppressing the trend of copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper collection entity Dayin column, the top pressure on a number of moving averages, the technical side of the resistance level is still strong, the night again test 46500 yuan / ton level.
Lead: Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short jump high opened in 17135 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead basic around the daily average shock, after being affected by regenerated lead deep sticking water, Shanghai lead center of gravity moved down to 17025 yuan / ton near, in late trading, short profit left, Shanghai lead rebounded slightly, and finally closed at 17055 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton, up 0.03%, position reduced to 53360 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the small negative line, the pace of uplink was suspended, and nearly missed the Wanqi pass, considering that Wipanlun lead has stood at the US $2200 / ton level, to a certain extent, or boost the Shanghai lead trend, Shanghai lead may remain in the vicinity of Wanqi at night.
Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 128900 yuan / tonne, before noon, Shanghai nickel center of gravity around 129000 yuan / tonne narrow concussion operation. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel down 128150 yuan / ton, short positions reduced, Shanghai nickel rose, breaking through 130000 yuan / ton line, touch higher 130700 yuan / ton, then, part of the increase, closed at 129300 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day fell 800 yuan / ton, down 0.61%, position reduced by 9000 hands to 362000 hands, trading volume reduced by 580000 hands to 1.248 million hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small yang line, the bottom of the 60-day moving average support, night continued to pay attention to the 60-day moving average of 128500 yuan / ton of first-line support for Shanghai nickel.
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