10. 17 minutes of the internal aluminum morning meeting of the SMM
Disk: yesterday, the 1912 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company was opened at 13820 yuan / ton, and closed at 13890 yuan / ton at night. Overnight aluminum opened at $1726 / ton, closing at $1728.5 / ton, daily K line closed at three Lianyang, mainly short positions.
Macro: (1) the EU and the UK have reached an agreement on Brexit, which is subject to the approval of the British Parliament; (2) in response to questions related to Sino-US economic and trade consultations at a regular press conference, spokesman Gao Gao said that at present, China and the United States are stepping up consultations to strive for the implementation of the text of the agreement. Gao stressed that China has always believed that cooperation is the best choice for the two countries and the only correct choice to solve the problem. (3) from January to September, China's foreign investment cooperation maintained a healthy and stable development. From January to September 2019, Chinese domestic investors made non-financial direct investment to 5016 foreign enterprises in 164 countries and regions around the world, with a cumulative investment of 555.11 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8 percent over the same period last year. Foreign direct investment in September was 62.01 billion yuan, up 14.2 percent from a year earlier.
Fundamentals: bauxite, according to foreign news on October 17, Guinea mining operations returned to normal on Thursday, after political protests slowed production, protesters opposed a possible change in the constitution, causing President Alpha Conde to seek a third term. Auxiliary materials, Jiaozuo City launched orange weather warning, local carbon enterprises began calcining at 0: 00 on the 18th, roasting production limit of 50%. On the inventory side, SMM data showed that electrolytic aluminum stocks fell 61000 tons to 916000 tons on October 17 from last Thursday. This week the electrolytic aluminum ended the short-term accumulation market, the main reason is two points: first, the early aluminum plant concentrated arrival situation alleviated, the main consumption of storage volume month-on-month reduction; second, the weekly storage volume is basically stable than before the festival.
Spot: on the morning of the 17th, due to tight supply of goods in circulation, the shippers did not ship much, and the market quotation was chaotic, concentrated between 13960 and 13990 yuan / ton, but the actual transaction was not much, and many traders were on the sidelines. A large household received the goods in a small amount at the price of 13950 yuan / ton in the morning. After 10:30, the market transaction price was stable at 1397013990 yuan / ton, and the rising water was between 6080 yuan / ton and about 40 yuan / ton higher than the previous day. The price in Hangzhou area is between 13980-13990 yuan / ton, the transaction is general. East China spot continued to maintain a hot market today, spot transactions rose to 70-80 yuan / ton that month.
Summary: the contradiction between long and short in the short-term market still exists, although the supply increase is expected, but the actual growth rate is slow. With the recovery after the consumption holiday, the spot social inventory continues to go to the warehouse. At the present stage, the consumption can still go to the warehouse to continue to make the industry still need to give electrolytic aluminum a certain profit space, should not be too bearish, we should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption. Due to the increase in overseas alumina supply and weak demand, the internal and external positive sleeve will drag down the increased risk and can appropriately reduce the position. The monthly difference between SHFE contracts maintains a pattern of near strength and far weakness, which can be properly intervened.
(SMM Li Hao)