10. 18 minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting
[10. 18 SMM Bronze Morning meeting Summary] Macro aspect: 1) British Prime Minister Johnson reached a Brexit agreement with the European Union, but was opposed by Northern Ireland allies, which will face a severe test in the British Parliament on Saturday. 2) spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China: the Sino-US economic and trade team is maintaining close communication on the text of the agreement and has begun discussions on the next stage. China's ultimate goal is to stop the trade war and abolish all tariffs. 3) affected by factors such as workers' strikes, manufacturing output fell the most in five months in September. New housing starts fell from a 12-year high in September. Last week consumers bought sentiment index record high fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate: according to SMM, the CSPT team held its latest fourth quarter Floor price price meeting in Shanghai this morning and finalized the fourth quarter TC floor price at $66 / tonne, up about $11 / tonne from Q3 in 2019. On the 11th of June, SMM10 quoted US $54-$60 / ton from TC for spot clean copper concentrate. 2) scrap copper: the quotation of bright copper in Guangdong area is down 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, and the price difference between fine and waste is 689 yuan / ton. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has gone down, the trade situation has intensified, the overall market demand has declined, the performance of the peak season has not been vigorous, the competition among downstream processing enterprises has been fierce, and some enterprises with weak competitiveness have been forced to stop production, and enterprises in operation have also shown that orders are weak. actively looking for new opportunities. 73) Import of copper: yesterday's warehouse receipt quoted US $7888 / ton, bill of lading quoted US $75-85 / ton, QP November. LME0-3 discount US $26.50 / ton, import profit of about 50 yuan / ton. Yesterday morning the market price comparison opened, the market purchase demand increases, the inquiry is obviously active. The market quotation maintains the previous level, but the transaction situation obviously improves, because the import profit is limited, so the transaction price only rises slightly, the warehouse receipt is suitable for customs declaration, the price rise is relatively more obvious. Overall, prices have been relatively stable in the near future, only slightly fluctuating with the price comparison. 4) stocks: LME copper stocks increased by 600 tons to 275575 tons on October 16. In the previous period, copper was reduced by 1745 tons to 62654 tons. 5) spot: in the spot aspect, taking into account the upgrading of the tax invoice system, the market purchase situation has improved, and the low price repurchase is more active, so the spot quotation rose faster in the first two days, but due to today's Friday, it is expected that the purchase will be restrained, and it is difficult for the holder to raise the water again. Spot water is expected to rise by 60 yuan / ton today.
Copper prices and forecasts: the overnight rally was mainly due to a lower-than-expected monthly rate of US real estate data and industrial output in September, with the US index falling back to around 97.5, with copper prices boosted by short-term gains. At present, recently, economic data from various countries have been released one after another, reflecting the weakness of the global economy, bearish performance on the copper market, less than expected economic data in the United States, and a decline in its manufacturing industry in many ways. The Brexit agreement on the British side will continue to face the test of voting in the British Parliament, the market risk aversion mood has rebounded, and the CMX gold price has continued to rise and return to the vicinity of the 1500 hurdle. The fatigue of the global economy is the key factor that is disadvantageous to the rise of copper prices. Fundamentals gold nine silver 10 gradually close to the end, the recovery in consumption is not expected, the fundamentals did not boost the bright spot of copper prices. It is expected that the current copper market is still a low shock pattern. It is estimated that today's copper 5730-5790 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 46500-46900 yuan / ton.
(SMM Kwong Chi-si)