[SMM Research] enamelled Wire production rate increased slightly in September. "Gold, Nine and Silver 10" consumption recovery was not as expected.

SMM, 17 October:

According to SMM research data, the operating rate of enamelled wire was 70.35% in September, up 0.31% from August. "Gold, Nine and Silver 10" is the traditional annual consumption season, but the operating rate in September is basically the same as that in August, and the month-on-month increase is not obvious. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, this year, as the Sino-US trade war began to worsen after June, some downstream customer exports of enamelled wires were affected, and some enterprises in South China felt strongly affected, mainly in areas such as white goods. Second, the global macroeconomic situation continues to weaken, the world ushered in a wave of interest rate cuts, the manufacturing industry ushered in a cold winter, the overall demand was not as expected, the peak season is not prosperous is the biggest feature of the fourth quarter. According to SMM, in September, according to most enamelled wire enterprises, production in September was basically flat or slightly higher than that of last month, and downstream industrial motors and white goods were flat. After the sloping of new energy vehicles due to subsidies, output in September fell 29.9% from the same period last year, far less than last year, even though there was still no obvious bright spot in the downstream consumption situation in the traditional peak season. Finally, due to the environmental impact of the 70th anniversary of the National Day parade, environmental protection in Central China is becoming more stringent. According to the feedback from enterprises to SMM, some enterprises in Henan and Hebei have stopped production and limited production at the end of September due to the requirements of environmental protection on National Day, which has affected the output of enamelled wire in September, so the overall increase in the start-up rate in September is not obvious.

Investigation on enamelled Wire Enterprises

It is estimated that the operating rate of enamelled wire enterprises in October is 69.49%.

But for October expectations, according to SMM research, most enamelled wire enterprises on October consumption is flat and slightly pessimistic trend, first of all, because the risk of Sino-US trade makes some enterprises worried about the future, at the same time, there has not been a significant increase in downstream demand, even in October as the peak season, still cautious; Second, because of the long National Day holiday factors, which will affect the output of some enterprises for a few days, the total output of the overall month is still expected to be flat or slightly decreased (29 research enterprises, production capacity of 1.006 million tons).

Sample distribution

At present, the enamelled wire industry is mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Bohai Bay region, most of the enterprises are located in East China, mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai and other places; the second largest area is South China, mainly distributed in Guangdong Province. According to its regional distribution in China, SMM collects market information according to large, small and medium samples in the main distribution centers as far as possible, so as to make the sample distribution more reasonable and reflect the market dynamics more truly.