[SMM Daily Review] Nickel in Shanghai fell nearly 3%. Colored rose and fell. Black series rebounded and weak crude oil plummeted 4.6%.

SMM10, 17 March, the non-ferrous metals market rose and fell each other today, as of the end of the day, Shanghai copper fell 0.49%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.25%, Shanghai lead rose 1.12%, Shanghai zinc fell 1.29%, Shanghai tin rose 0.98%, Shanghai nickel fell 2.97%.

On copper, SMM recently learned that people familiar with the matter said big Chinese copper smelters on Thursday raised the bottom price of processing refining fees (TC/RC) in the fourth quarter of this year, up 20 per cent from the previous quarter. (CSPT), the joint negotiating group for copper raw materials in China, has finalized a floor price of US $66 per tonne for processing and 66 cents per pound for refining. The copper producer pays the smelter the cost of processing and refining the ore into refined metal. In the third quarter of this year, CSPT struck a low price of $55 a tonne for processing and 5.5 cents a pound for refining. At the beginning of the year, spot TC prices fell all the way down. However, as the increase in Grasberg copper quota hit the spot market and the supply of concentrate increased, the spot TC price of copper concentrate ended its downward trend so far this year in September. According to the latest data from SMM on October 11, the spot clean copper concentrate TC quoted US $54-60 / ton, and the transaction center of gravity returned to US $57 / ton. However, at present, overseas mines and smelters are also frequent, buyers and sellers are in a state of game, spot TC prices will remain deadlocked at the current level in the short term.

On the zinc front, Glencore (Glencore) recently invested C $1 million in Group Eleven Resources's Stonepark zinc mine, giving Glencore an 11.58 per cent stake. The resource reserves of the project reach 5.1 million tons, of which the zinc grade is 8.7% and the lead grade is 2.6%. The project is adjacent to Glencore's Pallas Green lead and zinc project, which has reserves of 45.1 million tons, with a zinc grade of 7 per cent and a lead grade of 1 per cent. Ireland is one of the largest zinc producers in Europe and is rich in zinc deposits.

Tin, Seligdar PJSC released production data for the nine months to September 30, 2019, with the holding company's gold production up 15 per cent from the same period last year and concentrate tin production up 72 per cent. Tin ore production from January to September 2019 increased by 47 per cent over the same period last year to 313000 tons. Tin production in the nine months of 2019 increased by 72 per cent over the same period last year to 1611 tons, more than for the whole of 2018. Tin sales from January to September 2019 reached 1.65 billion roubles, up 88 per cent from a year earlier. In addition, Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. issued a voluntary information disclosure notice on the shutdown and maintenance of the smelting branch, saying that it would stop the production and maintenance of the tin smelting equipment. The overhaul is scheduled to begin on October 21, 2019 and is expected to take no more than 50 days. According to the preliminary calculation of the production department of the company, the company's shutdown and maintenance is expected to lead to a reduction of about 10% in fine tin production in 2019 compared with the original production plan.

In the black system, iron ore fell 2.23%, thread rose 0.03%, hot rolled down 0.06%, stainless steel fell 2.06%, coke fell 0.31%, coking coal rose 0.90%. Today, although the black system as a whole slightly down, but basically low open upward situation, but the market is still weak, only coking coal red. Among them, iron ore has dropped a lot recently, and II emergency response was launched in Tangshan. Ten departments, including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Development and Reform Commission, and the people's governments of Beijing, Tianjin, and other cities, jointly issued the "Action Plan for Comprehensive Air pollution Control in the Autumn and Winter 2019-2020 in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and surrounding areas." the decline was further expanded. In addition, Rio Tinto said on Wednesday that iron ore shipments rose 5 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, driven by rising demand from Chinese steelmakers. Vale also reported a 35.4% increase in production to 86.7 million tons in the quarter from a year earlier. Under the pressure of both supply and demand, iron ore expectations are insufficient, and futures performance is indeed not eye-catching.

Crude oil plunged 4.6% in the last period. There is a link between the last issue of crude oil and the recent release of crude oil inventory data by API. U. S. crude oil stocks recorded continuous growth. Stephen Innes, Asia-Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader, said in a report on Thursday, "the news of the surge in U.S. oil stocks is coming at a bad time because of the weak performance of recent global economic data and the fact that oil markets are paying too much attention to reduced demand." if the data is confirmed by official data, it will be the biggest inventory increase since February 2017. At the same time, concerns about the outlook for the global economy are growing as US data show retail sales fell in September for the first time in seven months. Data released earlier this month also showed a slowdown in job growth and services activity in September.

As of 16:43, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:

Today's capital flow

Although the market is still not small today, but the flow of funds is relatively stable. Building materials, precious metals, non-ferrous plates are inflow of more than 200 million funds, the black system was sold, especially the coal plate outflow of 580 million yuan ranked first. Shanghai copper and Shanghai gold are the most favored by funds, ranking in the top two of the list of commodity capital inflows. The plummeting red jujube positions soared, accompanied by nearly 200 million funds. On the other hand, coke rebounded slightly, flowing out more than 500 million funds, or leaving the market because of some short positions.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on October 17th

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46650 yuan / ton, after the opening of the center of gravity that is to maintain 46650 yuan / ton near shock finishing, has continued to close an hour before the close, and then down to the day's lowest level of 46580 yuan / ton, the end of the day slightly rebounded and closed at 46650 yuan / ton, down 0.49%. The main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 6057 hands to 237000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 3984 hands to 105000 hands. At present, the position continues to move backward, with 11000 new positions in Shanghai Copper 2001 and 2002 contracts, an increase of 18000 hands in the Shanghai Copper Index to 568000 hands, and an increase in trading volume of 31000 hands to 222000 hands. The trend continued to maintain stability today, mainly due to the continued weakness of global economic data released in recent days, and the market heightened concerns about macroeconomic weakness. At the same time, the current hindrance of Brexit negotiations has exacerbated market uncertainty, and the low position of copper in Shanghai has maintained stability. At present, Shanghai copper has lost all moving average support, MACD green column continues to stretch, waiting for the outer disk guide test at night can continue to maintain the 46500 yuan / ton level.

Lead: within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 17065 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, the bulls continued to enter the market to pull up the lead price to 17145 yuan / ton, after the Shanghai lead upward power slightly insufficient, fell back to the daily average line above the shock, finally closed at 17095 yuan / ton, up 190 yuan / ton, up 1.12%, the position increased by 2080 hands to 53966 hands. Shanghai lead closed at the Dayang line, the continued strength of the outer plate, to a certain extent, boosted the confidence of the bulls to enter the market, pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can break through the previous high, if the breakthrough fails and falls back, this wave of rising market may be over.

Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 130280 yuan / ton today, after the opening, Shanghai nickel weakened downward, near the midday closing time, down 127340 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, the center of gravity around 128000 yuan / ton horizontal shock finishing, and finally closed at 128750 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 3940 yuan / ton, down 2.97%, trading volume increased by 719000 hands to 1.828 million hands, position increased by 13000 hands to 371000 hands. The Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract reduced its position by 23484 hands today, while the 1912 and 2001 contracts increased their positions by 12928 and 11848 respectively. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed in the long negative column, the shadow line down the 60-day moving average 128500 yuan / ton line, the top is faced with a number of moving average pressure, pay attention to whether Shanghai nickel can get 60-day moving average support, to maintain the 128000 yuan / ton level.

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