Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 16th

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5772.5 / tonne, opened higher at $5773 / tonne in the morning, and then the center of gravity fell slightly to near the daily average of $5760 / tonne. The bulls' highs showed a lack of confidence. Then into the European market, the weak performance is more obvious, as the IMF once again lowered global economic growth expectations, and the recent weak crude oil demand pushed oil prices weaker, European copper prices fell in a straight line, quickly broke the 5700 level, straight down to a low of $5697.5 / ton. As of 17: 00, Lun Copper closed down 1.22% at $5709 a tonne, with the dollar index at 98.293 and US crude oil at $52.70 a barrel. The evening focused on a lower monthly retail sales rate of 0.3 per cent in September and a lower monthly rate of 0.2 per cent for business inventories in August. U. S. economic data continue to be weak, combined with the recent IMF cut global economic growth operation, economic weakness has taken shape, it is expected that the market risk aversion is thicker, copper price macro bearish factors. The technical surface copper lengthens the collecting yin entity, breaks all the recent moving average support, the KDJ index turns empty. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to the $5700 / tonne position. Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46900 yuan / ton, opening down 46840 yuan / ton, then the surface rebounded slightly, the center of gravity moved up to 46900 yuan / ton to maintain stability until the end of the afternoon, the afternoon surface was obviously weak, the center of gravity continued to step down until 46820 yuan / ton, the tail of the long withdrawal closed at 46750 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton, down 0.4%. The main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 2832 hands to 231000 hands today, while the trading volume decreased by 17000 hands to 101000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 9278 hands to 550000, while trading volume fell 52000 to 191000. Today, the market trend is relatively weak, the upward momentum is obviously insufficient, the main reason is that IMF once again lowered the global economic growth forecast to 3%, a 10-year low in the financial crisis, the market is still worried that the macro-weak economic situation is difficult to change in the short term, copper prices go higher power is not enough, today Shanghai copper closing entity big balcony, MACD index green pillar continues to stretch. In the evening, test whether Shanghai copper can further hold the 46700 yuan / ton barrier. Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 40 ~ 70 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46880 yuan / ton ~ 46930 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 46900 yuan / ton ~ 46950 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper pressure fell to 46800 yuan / ton first-line shock. On the first day after the exchange month, the holder kept a steady offer of 40 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton, and the low price source was favored by the market, attracting traders to enter the market to receive the goods. In the morning market, the price was still low, and the transaction activity was still good. In particular, the purchase of copper in Pingshui was relatively high, and the inquiry was obviously more active. However, at the beginning of the week, the pressure on inventory was still there, and it was difficult to make substantial changes for the time being. Pingshui copper was concentrated in Shengshui 40 to 50 yuan / ton. Good copper to maintain stability in the rising water 60 ~ 70 yuan / ton; Downstream on-demand procurement, wet copper more than 10 yuan / ton transaction. Today, the trading atmosphere in the market has slightly improved against the background of traders receiving goods at low prices in order to deliver long orders. In the long single delivery cycle, the source of quality goods with low water and high performance and price is still attractive. In the afternoon, traders still continue to actively receive goods, holders' willingness to bid up due to the impact of the improvement of transactions, prices continue to rise in the afternoon. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper rose 50 ~ 60 yuan / ton, good copper 70 ~ 80 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 46850 yuan / ton-46910 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1726 per ton in the morning. In the Asian period, Lun aluminum tried to break through upward, easily crossing the 5-day moving average to maintain a concussive uplift after opening, touching the 10-day moving average in the afternoon and touching $1732 / ton at a high level. The inertia of the conversion time from Houlun Aluminium to trading hours weakened, with Aluminium trading at $1728.5 / tonne as of 15: 00. During the European period, Lun aluminum dived, quickly leaking low as of 15: 59 aluminum recorded a low of $1716 / ton. On the whole, due to the increase in overseas alumina supply pressure, non-ferrous metal plate Lun aluminum is obviously weak, although the center of gravity of the US index has moved down, it is difficult to raise the aluminum price, and the top 10-day moving average is under greater pressure. In addition, today's overall correction of non-ferrous metals, Lun aluminum is more difficult to stay alone, it is expected to maintain a weak range of shocks in the evening, there is the possibility of touching the lower 1700-1710 US dollars / ton support level.

The Shanghai aluminum main contract was opened at 13785 yuan / ton in the morning of 1912. After the opening of the Shanghai aluminum low touched 13770 yuan / ton, the low led to a long entrance, after the Shanghai aluminum as a whole to maintain shock upward. Before noon, the short attempt at the 5-day moving average was unsuccessful and fled quickly. Shanghai aluminum broke through the 5-day moving average, short relatively cautious, at the end of the day high again tried to sniper, lost again after leaving the field, Shanghai aluminum high touch 13840 yuan / ton, closed at 13855 yuan / ton. Positions increased by 13652 hands to 237442 hands, Shanghai aluminum index positions increased by 6778 hands to 666992 hands, mainly long positions. After the continuous negative fall, the market short sentiment was released, considering that the current consumption month-on-month ratio is still relatively stable, the return of electrolytic aluminum did not meet expectations, the probability of going to the warehouse continued, Shanghai aluminum recorded a certain rebound. But at the same time, the long-term electrolytic aluminum cost downward, supply increase and consumption sustainability of the unpredictable Shanghai aluminum rebound height is relatively limited, more will maintain the center of gravity down after the interval shock. It is recommended to add short-line band operation.

In the spot market, aluminum fluctuated before noon that month. The spot transaction prices of the two places in Shanghai Wuxi market are mostly concentrated in the range of 1388013900 yuan / ton, the price is about 30-40 yuan / ton, the price is nearly 100 yuan higher than yesterday, and the price in Hangzhou is 13900-13910 yuan / ton. Aluminum futures rose more today, pre-sale holders today significantly increased their shipping enthusiasm, while middlemen did not reduce their enthusiasm for receiving goods. Some traders think that the spot market is too tight and have certain expectations for aluminum prices and rising water in the short term. As a result, the receiving of goods is more active, and the trading between buyers and sellers is active. Due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, some of the downstream goods on demand today, but there are also a small number of traders feedback that a small number of manufacturers have been buying goods because of the early price wait-and-see, and now little inventory consumption has to start receiving goods. On the whole, the overall transaction in East China today is good. In the afternoon, aluminum maintains a narrow range of concussion, although middlemen still have the willingness to receive goods, but very few shipments, a small amount of quotation in the vicinity of 13920 yuan / ton, to the surface of the water about 40 yuan / ton, the actual few transactions.

Lead: daily Nailun lead opened at US $2148.5 / ton, in Asia, the trend of lead was flat, basically in the narrow range of US $2150. In the afternoon, non-ferrous metals as a whole weakened, Lun lead followed the decline, the low once fell to US $2140.5 / ton, and then the long-empty differences intensified, entering the European period, the bulls had a slight advantage, Lun lead hit the bottom and rebounded, as high as $2157.5 / ton, as of 18:30, Lun lead is quoted at US $2155.5 / ton. Lun lead technology continues to be strong, recently focused on whether to break through the previous high, and stood on the $2200, focus on the performance of the lead position.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead 1911 contract opened at 16960 yuan / ton, the Shanghai lead trend at the beginning of the day was on the strong side, the high level once reached 16970 yuan, and the pressure was near Wanqi. In the afternoon, the Shanghai lead shock fell back, the center of gravity obviously moved down, stabilized in the first line of 16850 yuan, the main force was to maintain the stable price, and finally pulled up the lead price at 16895 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton, up 0.45%. 1911 contracts reduced positions by 1158 hands to 51886 hands, with a turnover of 31184 hands, a decrease of 5020 hands. The 1912 and 2001 contracts increased their positions by a total of 3698 hands, aggravated the selling pressure in the far month, formed the baoc structure and widened the price spread between months to around 100 yuan. Shanghai lead temporarily guarded the 60-day moving average, and returned to touch the upper roots of the recent moving average, but the overall trend of lead prices is still weak, the high near Wanqi still has a very strong bearing pressure.

Shanghai market Jinsha, southern, Mu Ron lead 16910-16930 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui quotation; Wuxi market Jingui 16910 yuan / ton, to 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton, of which white goods can be discounted 50-40 yuan / ton. Lead exploration rebounded, after delivery, the holder quoted price, and forced the original lead, recycled lead refinery shipments to maintain a deep discount, the trade market price discount than yesterday, but the downstream demand is limited, the overall market transaction is still relatively light.

Guangdong market South China lead 16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up to 50 yuan / ton quotation; southern storage south 16930 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water quotation. Lead price continues weak shock, regeneration primary price difference gradually opened, downstream limited purchase of recycled refined lead, so the transaction of primary lead market is flat. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16800 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, downstream wait-and-see, market transactions continue a light trend. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16800-16850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to flat water quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16870 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 20 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16500-16550 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead price low weak shock, downstream consumption gradually turn light, the overall transaction is light.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2427 / tonne. At the beginning of the session, Lun Zinc was arranged around the daily average line, and then went down slightly, with the center of gravity sinking to US $2415 / ton, with a strong integer support of US $2400 / ton below. Lun Zinc found support and gradually rose to US $2428.5 / tonne. In European trading hours, Lun Zinc fell slightly again, and then fluctuated around US $2420 / ton, ending at 16: 23. Lun Zinc closed down $7, or 0.29 per cent, at $2418.5 a tonne. The zinc of Geneva turns positive to receive yin, the support of the lower EMA still exists, and the red column of MACD is slightly shortened, indicating that the action energy of zinc is insufficient. LME zinc inventory recorded a decline for many consecutive days, but the rate of decline narrowed, and the supporting effect on zinc price was weakened. Pay attention to the support strength of the $2400 / ton pass below at night.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 19100 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc slightly down after a slight rise, then in 18970 yuan / ton shock collation, economic data weak makes the macro mood into pessimism, Shanghai zinc pressure shows a straight decline, the center of gravity quickly sinks to 18905 yuan / ton line, more flat into the next, Shanghai zinc broke the 20-day moving average support, once again down and down to 18875 yuan / ton. Subsequently, Shanghai zinc found support above the 60-day moving average, stopped falling and returned to rise. At the end of the day, Shanghai zinc fell slightly, closing down 18915 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, or 0.42%, from the previous trading. Trading volume increased by 56044 hands to 215000 hands, and position increased by 4374 hands to 197000 hands. Shanghai zinc closed negative within the day, with shadow line 20 EMA support strength, two consecutive days of domestic economic data released less than expected to enhance short confidence, day short large scale into the market to crack down on zinc prices, indicating that Shanghai zinc short-term there is a certain downward pressure. Within days, 1911 contract capital outflow exceeded 150 million, the main 1912 contract capital inflow only 18.49 million, indicating a rise in capital risk aversion, choose to leave the market, Shanghai zinc downward pressure is greater. Pay attention to the support strength of 18900 yuan after the adhesion of the lower moving average at night.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 189701950 yuan / ton, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 1898019060 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 110-120 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan and Huize was 120-130 yuan / ton, and that of zinc was 18900-18980 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, some holders of ordinary brand zinc ingots sold at an average price of 5 yuan / ton to SMM net, followed by an increase of 110120 yuan / ton on the 1911 contract, and the mood of shipment and receipt in the market was relatively low. In the second trading session, the zinc price continued to weaken, and the holder maintained the rising price of 110-120 yuan / ton on the 1911 contract. The delivery of the first batch of long orders ended, and the trading of traders in the market was relatively light. Some downstream enterprises met bargains to replenish their warehouses today, and the transaction was slightly better than yesterday, but the market as a whole was generally traded.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Guangdong was 18820-18870 yuan / ton, and the contract of zinc 1911 in Shanghai was reported near 30-40 yuan / ton, and the discount in Guangdong stock market was about 160yuan / ton compared with that in Shanghai stock market. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. The morning quotation of the holder is concentrated in the average price of-10 yuan / ton, part of it is quoted around the average price of-20 yuan / ton, and the holder quotes the contract quotation around 30-40 yuan / ton on the 11th contract; entering the second trading period, the market transaction price is still concentrated in the discount of 3040 yuan / ton on the 11th contract, the downside, the downstream wait and see, the willingness to buy is still deviated, and a small amount of trading is contributed by traders. Overall, today's Guangdong market transactions basically extended yesterday's light situation. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18820-18870 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market is 18950-20470 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands is 18950-19070 / ton, the contract for 1911 is about 80-180 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market is narrowed from 40 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the shortage of goods still exists. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in about 140-180 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and the quotation of ordinary brand source is about 80-120 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk downward, rising water stable, the market wait-and-see mood is becoming stronger, the downstream willingness to buy is still weak, only to maintain rigid demand to pick up goods. Overall, today's deal continues yesterday's light atmosphere. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18950-19070 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18900-19020 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $16750 / ton today, the Asian session generally showed a trend of suppressing at first and then rising, falling to around US $16670 / ton and then bottoming out. After the opening of the European market continued to rise to $16790 / ton after the pressure fell back to $16600 / tonne, rose again, as of 17: 00, the latest price of $16730 / tonne, showing a cross star line, it is expected that the resistance above Lunxi is near the 60-day moving average of $16800 / tonne.

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night 137020 yuan / ton after the opening of the rapid shock to 138340 yuan / ton after maintaining a high consolidation of 138000 yuan / ton. After the opening of 138120 yuan / ton in early trading today, Shanghai tin rose again to a high level of 139100 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 138790 yuan / ton, up 1940 yuan / ton, or 1.42%. The trading volume was 38314 hands, the position was 41704 hands, an increase of 1760 hands. Shanghai tin Changyang rose today, and the resistance above Shanghai tin is expected to be around 140000 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 137000-139500 yuan / ton, and there is a low-priced small brand supply near 136500 yuan / ton in the market. As a result of the sharp rise in Shanghai tin package companies bargain procurement of tin ingots, most of the downstream enterprises to maintain a wait-and-see mentality, a small number of on-demand procurement. Shanghai tin spot market today the overall transaction atmosphere is general. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rising water 700 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word flat water, small brand discount 400-600 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $16990 / tonne today. After the opening, Lunni's pressure daily averages fluctuated downwards to $16850 / tonne, with a narrow range of swings around the $16900 / tonne line. In the afternoon, due to the upward pressure of the dollar index, Lunni continued to fall, falling $16655 / ton to $16700 / ton at 16: 30, down $310 / ton, or 1.82%, from the previous day's settlement price. Trading volume decreased by 5875 hands to 2040 hands, and positions decreased by 5000 hands to 276000 hands. in the afternoon, due to the upward pressure of the dollar index, Lunni continued to fall, falling $16655 / tonne to $16700 / tonne, down $310 / tonne or 1.82% from the previous trading day. Lunni temporarily closed in the small negative line, far from the EMA above, and gradually close to the 60-day moving average below, paying attention to whether Lunni can hold the $16700 / ton barrier at night. This evening we looked at the monthly rate of business inventories in the United States in August, the monthly rate of retail sales in September, and the NAHB housing market index in October.

Shanghai nickel 1912 contract opened today at 133000 yuan / ton, during the day, Shanghai nickel below 132100 yuan / ton first-line support, above the pressure 133000 yuan / ton pass, the center of gravity around the daily average 132700 yuan / ton narrow shock operation, finally closed at 132500 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day fell 1280 yuan / ton, down 0.96%, trading volume decreased by 434000 hands to 1.109 million hands, position increased by 1000 hands to 358000 hands. In the current month, the 1911 contract reduced its position by more than 11000 hands, and the position continued to show a significant backwardness of the far-month contract. Shanghai Nickel 1912 closed in the Yin Cross today, away from the top multiple averages, below there is no other support level, at night to pay attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can hold 132000 yuan / ton level.

In the spot market, Russian nickel rose 200-300 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai Nickel 1911 today, while Jinchuan nickel generally reported 500 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Today, traders generally feedback, the spot market Russian nickel deliverable supply is slightly tight, some of the new Russian nickel can not be delivered, resulting in a decline in the overall flow of Russian nickel. Superimposed on the recent spot market trading improvement, downstream began to enter the market to replenish the warehouse, the supply of goods is more tense than before. In the morning, nickel prices fluctuated around 140000 as a whole, with a slight drop in the last session, trading was not in a hurry for the first half of the week, and the activity between traders also declined, because the overall supply of goods by the holders was not large, and the willingness to rise was strong, and it was difficult for traders to replenish their warehouses at low prices. Recently, Jinchuan Company has raised its water. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 134700 yuan / ton, which is 700 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. Mainstream transactions with 134100 yuan / ton-134700 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, after the nickel price fluctuated around 134000 yuan / ton, the last session weakened again, and the trading did not improve significantly. All day, the transaction was not as active as the first half of the week, and the traders continued to rise.