SMM10, March 16: today's non-ferrous metals market red and green, by the end of the day, Shanghai copper fell 0.40%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.62%, Shanghai lead rose 0.45%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.42%, Shanghai tin rose 1.34%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.96%.
Among them, zinc, the main contract in Shanghai zinc in the afternoon appeared a wave of sharp drop, and then has been in the low shock, closed at 18915. Shanghai zinc this week compared with last week is still in a slightly higher position wide finishing state. The mining end is still the focus of attention. According to SMM research, overseas, more than 40 mines have plans to increase production. The overseas increment of zinc concentrate in 2018 is nearly 500000 metal tons, and the overseas increase in 2019 is expected to exceed 1 million metal tons compared with 2018, or more than 100% from the same period last year. In 2020, it is more than 800000 metal tons from 2019, or 20% less than the same period last year. From 2019 to 2020, mines in Australia increased production by a total of 749000 metal tons, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the increase, ranking first; mines in Mexico increased production by a total of 163000 metal tons, ranking second; mines in Kazakhstan increased production by 140000 metal tons, ranking third. "[SMM analysis] Review and prospect of zinc concentrate, is there a" zinc "situation at the end of the mine?
On the copper side, Guoxin Futures said that Shanghai copper slightly fell to Shanghai aluminum to rebound. As of 14: 55, Shanghai copper 1912 temporarily reported 46820 yuan / ton, down 0.23% in the day, and Shanghai aluminum 1912 temporarily reported 13830 yuan / ton, up 0.58% in the day. The recent Sino-US negotiations sent a partial optimistic signal, but the specific agreement still needs to be confirmed that while the tension in the financial market has eased, the impact of industrial fundamentals has increased, as copper and aluminum gradually entered the traditional off-season, coupled with the fourth quarter of the non-ferrous environmental protection investigation or less than expected, the current market is showing a concussive trend of copper and aluminum, it is suggested that copper and aluminum look more and move less, and wait and see for the time being.
On the nickel side, Shanghai nickel did not fall sharply today and was at a low level during the day. Guoxin Futures said Shanghai nickel, stainless steel shock fell. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the production and sale of new energy vehicles in September completed 89000 and 80, 000 respectively, down 29.9 percent and 34.2 percent respectively from the same period last year. It was already the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline since July. After subsidizing the sloping slope, the prospect of new energy vehicles was doubtful. In addition, after the sharp rise in nickel prices, the prices of electrolytic nickel-nickel sulfate have been substantially upside down, and enterprises have also begun to switch to electrolytic nickel. Under the background of the depression of stainless steel consumption in the lower reaches, the shortage of pure nickel resources has been further alleviated. In the future, we will focus on the game situation of the capital surface after the LME inventory has reached a low level in the future.
In the black system, iron ore fell 3.22%, thread 1.44%, hot coil 0.93%, coke 0.78% and coking coal 1.30%. Recently, the overall performance of the black system is not good, Yide Futures said that the overall decline in steel futures prices recently, mainly dragged down by raw materials, superimposed pessimism is too heavy. At present, the raw materials are in a state of high inventory, and under the background of limited production and low profits, the willingness of steel mills to replenish their warehouses is generally not high. On the other hand, although demand is resilient at present, there are no less concerns about an increase in production. As a result, the overall performance of steel is weak, but after the recent decline in the market, threads have been highly attached, the spot is relatively stable, short-term fundamentals without new stimulus, the disk decline has been limited. On the iron ore side, Rio Tinto (Rio Tinto) today released its third-quarter financial report. On the iron ore front, Australia's Pilbara region shipped 86.1 million tonnes of iron ore, up 1 per cent from the previous month and 5 per cent year-on-year, boosted by Chinese demand. Iron ore production was 87.3 million tons, up 10 per cent from the previous month and 6 per cent from a year earlier.
Crude oil fell 0.99% in the previous period. Crude oil in the previous period continued to fall today and has been fluctuating at a low level in recent days since the failure of last night's rebound. Internationally, Iran announced that the discovery of large oil and gas fields is expected to bring in $40 billion in revenue. According to reports, the Iranian National Oil Company recently announced the discovery of a large natural gas field with recoverable natural gas and oil reserves of 19 trillion cubic feet and 385 million barrels respectively, which will bring Iran 40 billion US dollars in revenue. Reza Dehgan, deputy general manager of the Department of Development and Engineering of Iran's National Oil Company, said that the newly discovered natural gas field, located in the southwestern province of Farr, near the Persian Gulf, is named "Elam (Eram)." After investigation, the field has about 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 385 million barrels of oil reserves, with a total value of about $40 billion. Iranian officials say the reserves of the field are close to those of Iran's South Pars field. The South Pars gas field in the Gulf, shared by Iran and Qatar, is the largest natural gas field ever discovered in the world. Intuitively, its available natural gas reserves will be enough for Tehran, with a population of 8 million, for 16 years, or equivalent to one year of gas consumption in Austria, Hungary and Romania. De Hegan said that the survey had begun in the summer of 2018 and that Iran was able to develop new oil and gas fields on its own. "We have the ability to use geophysical survey technology to identify and develop more undiscovered reserves of crude oil and natural gas in the country, which will add to Iran's national wealth."
Today's capital flow
After the festival, funds continued to pour into the market, entering 880 million yuan today, and the current index fell to near the lowest level of the year. Specific observation of black, chemical plate inflow of funds, non-ferrous metals outflow the largest. Among them, iron ore and methanol were blessed with more than 200 million funds, but both prices recorded a sharp decline, suggesting that short sellers took the initiative. On the other hand, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai copper has become the main outflow of funds, Shanghai nickel plummeted last day, stabilizing part of the speculative funds to leave the market today.
Brief comment of SMM analyst on October 16th
Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46900 yuan / ton, opening down 46840 yuan / ton, then the disk rebounded slightly, the center of gravity moved up to 46900 yuan / ton to maintain stability until the end of noon, the afternoon surface was obviously weak, the center of gravity continued to step down until 46820 yuan / ton, the end of the long rapid divestment closed at 46750 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton, down 0.4%. The main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 2832 hands to 231000 hands today, while the trading volume decreased by 17000 hands to 101000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 9278 hands to 550000, while trading volume fell 52000 to 191000. Today, the market trend is more tired, the upward momentum is obviously insufficient, the main reason is that IMF once again lowered the global economic growth forecast to 3%, creating a 10-year low in the financial crisis, the market is still worried that the macro-weak economic situation is difficult to change in the short term, copper prices go higher power is not enough, today Shanghai copper closing entity big balcony, MACD index green pillar continues to stretch. In the evening, test whether Shanghai copper can further hold the 46700 yuan / ton barrier.
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