[SMM analysis] the operating rate of copper strip and foil increased slightly in September compared with the previous month.

SMM, 16 October:

In September, the operating rate of copper plate, strip and foil enterprises was 70.62%.

According to SMM research data, the operating rate of copper plate and foil enterprises in September was 70.62%, down 6.16 percentage points from the same period last year, and up 1.16 percentage points from the previous month.

The operating rate of copper strip and foil enterprises has dropped sharply for six consecutive months compared with the same period last year. Although the operating rate has improved to some extent in September, the market is still pessimistic about October expectations. In September, the copper strip and foil industry was in the traditional consumption season, but the overall order increase did not meet expectations, mainly due to downstream electronics, electrical appliances, automobiles and other consumption areas, affected by macroeconomic impact, terminal demand is weak, copper strip industry downstream consumption has not improved significantly. Passenger car sales rose 16.8% in September from a month earlier, but down 6.3% from a year earlier, and 11.7% in January-September from a year earlier, according to the China Automobile Association. In September, sales of new energy vehicles in China also fell 34.2% from the same period last year. After the abolition of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the automobile sector lost its growth momentum, copper foil enterprises, mainly lithium batteries, were greatly affected, and industry processing fees were also maintained at a relatively low level, affecting the production enthusiasm of enterprises.

In September, the raw material inventory ratio of copper plate, strip and foil enterprises was 18.54%.

In September, the raw material inventory ratio of copper plate, strip and foil enterprises was 18.54%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points over the previous month. Raw material stocks this month than the main reason for the recovery of downstream enterprises in advance of the National Day storage, and the week before the rise and fall of spot water also promoted downstream enterprises to reserve storage. However, because the downstream enterprises have no obvious improvement expectations for the future consumption, the overall reserve warehouse is still cautious, and the raw material reserve warehouse returns to normal after the festival.

It is estimated that the operating rate of copper plate, strip and foil enterprises in October is 69.7%.

According to SMM research, the operating rate of copper plate and strip foil is expected to drop slightly to 69.7% in October, 0.92 percentage points less than the previous month. October operating rate is expected to fall back month-on-month mainly due to the National Day holiday in the terminal consumer industry, production arrangements delayed due to the reduction of some new orders for strip foil, so production is expected to fall back month-on-month in October.

(research enterprises: 21, production capacity: 1.274 million tons / year)