[SMM Analysis] in September, copper pipe enterprises started to pick up more than expected, and the industrial concentration effect was significant.

SMM, 15 October:

The operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in September was 78.06%.

According to SMM survey data, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in September was 78.06%, up 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year and 5.02 percentage points from the previous month. (research enterprises: 19, production capacity: 2.13 million tons)

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises improved more than expected in September. In addition to the promotion of the "Golden Nine and Silver 10" consumption season, the main consumption was concentrated in large enterprises, and the operating rate of large enterprises with a capacity of more than 100000 tons increased by 6.26 percentage points over the previous month. In the context of the current high air conditioning inventory, large enterprises due to the advantages of capital, Some enterprises significantly reduced processing fees to attract downstream, other terminal enterprises affected by capital factors, order account period elongated, resulting in a greater impact on some small and medium-sized enterprises, but also stimulated the transfer of some orders to large enterprises. In addition, as the terminal needs to prepare a warehouse for the National Day holiday, it has also promoted the active production of copper pipe enterprises in September. Compared with the same period last year, copper tube consumption increased sharply this year, mainly because at the end of September last year, affected by the implementation of trade tariffs between China and the United States, some enterprises were in front of production, resulting in poor overall copper tube consumption in September and October last year.

In September, the raw material inventory ratio of copper tube enterprises was 18.67%.

In September, the raw material inventory ratio of copper tube enterprises was 18.67%, an increase of 2.05 percentage points over the previous month. In September, the performance of raw material inventory ratio increased, and the inventory growth rate was larger, mainly due to the stock reserve made by copper pipe enterprises for the normal production of enterprises during the 11th National Day period, and it is expected that the inventory ratio will be revised back next month.

The operating rate of copper pipe enterprises is expected to be 75.17% in October.

According to the SMM survey, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises is expected to be 75.17% in October, down 2.89 percentage points from the previous month, and an increase of 10.97 percentage points from the same period last year. On the one hand, affected by the high inventory of the terminal air conditioning industry, the weak pattern of copper pipe consumption has not changed. According to SMM, the planned output of key air conditioning enterprises in October is 7.7% lower than that in September, and the National Day holiday will also affect the normal production days of enterprises; on the other hand, some small enterprises have failed to occupy an advantage in price competition, and the living environment of copper pipe enterprises has become more and more difficult.

(research enterprises: 19, production capacity: 2.13 million tons)