[SMM daily review] non-ferrous metals rose and fell, Shanghai nickel fell 3.46%, black series closed down, crude oil fell 1.7% in the previous period.

SMM, Oct. 15 / PRNewswire-FirstCall-Asianet / the non-ferrous metals market generally closed down today. By the end of the day, Shanghai copper was down 0.19%, Shanghai aluminum was up 0.22%, Shanghai zinc was up 0.08%, Shanghai lead was down 0.91%, Shanghai tin was down 0.23%, and Shanghai nickel was down 3.46%.

Among them, nickel, Shanghai nickel recently continued the decline in the night market, has been in a low shock in recent days. Guoxin Futures said the Shanghai zinc pullback rebounded, the overall flat. A week after the festival, domestic zinc ingot social inventory fell again, superimposed on Vedanta's Skorpion will close the zinc smelter for six months, in the context of the October consumption season is expected to strengthen again, supporting zinc prices. On the macro level, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Vice President Pence announced outside the White House that US President Trump has signed an executive order formally imposing sanctions on Turkey. At the same time, according to reports, there is still room for trade negotiations between China and the United States, and macro uncertainty has increased. In the near future, the zinc market is expected to deviate from the medium and wide swings in the short and medium term fundamentals.

Yesterday's sharp decline in nickel led to a fall in Shanghai nickel, weak short-term demand, long profit exit and other factors may make nickel price correction, but fundamentally, nickel prices do not have the basis for a sustained decline, on the one hand, LME inventory suffered 11 consecutive decline, half a month down 40%, only more than 94134 tons close to an all-time low, LME0-3 nickel rose $135 / ton, extrusion sentiment heated up, in addition, due to the collapse of National Highway 312, Traders generally said that it has a greater impact on stainless steel delivery and pick-up, local freight has doubled to triple, chromite has also recently risen in a row to support costs, nickel, stainless steel suggested to focus on the pullback to stabilize the opportunity to do so.

On the aluminum side, (aluminum Bahrain B.S.C., Bahrain Aluminium Co., Ltd.) It was announced a few days ago that the company's primary aluminum production and sales reached a record in the third quarter of this year. Of this total, raw aluminum production reached 385396 tons, up 53 percent from the same period last year. Sales of raw aluminium reached 376025 tons, also up sharply from a year earlier, up 51 per cent. Throughout the first nine months of this year, Bahrain Aluminium's production and sales rose year-on-year. Total production rose 26 per cent year-on-year to 963830 tons, and total sales rose 26 per cent year-on-year to 945067 tons, surpassing the 750202 tons sold for the whole of last year.

On the black side, iron ore fell 1.15%, thread 1.67%, hot coil 1.27%, coke 2.32% and coking coal 0.40%. Recently, the black system has been weak and the downward pressure is greater. In terms of rebar, Ruida Futures indicates the weak operation of rebar and suggests short-term operation. Construction steel spot market quotation downward, businesses continue to lower quotation for shipment, leading to the bottom transaction price continues to move down. Overall, with the gradual cooling of the temperature, downstream demand is bound to decline, the current traders mentality as a whole is weak. From the mainstream position analysis, empty orders continue to increase on the futures price. Technically, the RB2001 contract runs weakly, the 1-hour MACD index shows that the DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis, and the 1-hour BOLL index shows the opening of the central axis and the lower rail downward. In operation, it is suggested that the short-term consideration of rebound to choose a short, stop loss reference 3410. On the iron ore front, Vale released its third quarter report last night. "[SMM Analysis] when will Vale iron ore production return to its peak?

Crude oil fell 1.70% in the previous period. In a series of speeches today, OPEC Secretary General Barkin said India is one of the main drivers of crude oil demand, with global crude oil demand likely to grow by 14.5 million barrels a day to 112 million barrels a day by 2040. India will account for about 40% of global crude oil demand growth, and OPEC is committed to the continued stability of the oil market. The agreement reached by OPEC and its allies has brought stability to the oil market, benefiting both producers and consumers. Saudi Arabia and Russia yesterday approved the new OPEC+ charter, the crude oil industry needs a supportive investment environment, the crude oil spot market is now relatively tight, demand dominates the market, supply constraints, volatility and geopolitical tensions damage the oil market, the trade situation affects the global economy and demand, and be cautious in forecasting demand in 2019 and 2020. But oil prices may have been boosted by a possible decline in US inventories last week. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "the market expects US inventories to shrink last week and the Middle East is likely to upgrade further."

The new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:

Today's capital flow

Today, most of the plates are in an inflow state, with more than half of the funds entering black goods, followed by precious metals and chemicals. Among them, thread absorbs nearly 300 million funds in the first place of commodities. The rest of the plate PTA broke down, nearly 200 million funds were blessed. On the other hand, nickel, which also broke the position, flowed out of 180 million yuan, ranking first in the outflow of goods.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on Sept. 24

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 47010 yuan / ton, after the opening to maintain the concussion trend, long and short sides continue to stalemate saw, inextricable victory or defeat, the center of gravity in 46960-47040 yuan / ton shock to maintain stability, in the afternoon to continue the morning trend, the volatility spread remained within 1912 yuan / ton, closed at 46960 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, down 0.19%. The main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 3722 hands to 228000 hands today, while trading volume decreased by 36000 hands to 118000 hands. At present, the disk position backward trend is obvious, 2001 and 2002 contracts increased a total of 7110 hands today, to 122000 hands. The Shanghai copper index increased its daily position by 7690 hands to 559000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 68000 hands to 243000 hands. The trend of the intra-day market is relatively stable. The main reason is that the optimism of Sino-US trade and Brexit has been basically digested by the market in recent days. The market has generally returned to rationality, worried about whether the follow-up results of trade are smooth, and the global weak macro situation has not yet shown signs of warming, causing the market to worry about the demand side. Copper prices are not dynamic enough. At present, Shanghai Copper has a big sunny pillar, MACD indicators are still green pillars, and there is too much technical and negative information. Test at night if you can continue to stabilize position 46900. Today, the Shanghai copper 1910 contract is facing delivery, opened at 46990 yuan / ton in the morning, fell to 46880 yuan / ton at the opening, and then rebounded, with the center of gravity fluctuating around 46930 yuan / ton, closing at 46880 yuan / ton, settled at 46900 yuan / ton, and the delivery volume reached 28750 tons. at present, the contract structure of 1910-1911 continues to maintain the Contango structure, and the contract price difference reaches 40 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum main force 1912 contract completed to change the month. Opened in the morning at 13750 yuan / ton, after the opening of a small number of short entrants to continue to suppress aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum low touched 13755 yuan / ton. After the short closed out, some of the bulls took advantage of the momentum to pursue, Shanghai aluminum to maintain shock upward repair the day before the decline. Intraday several times touched a high of 13790 yuan / ton, afternoon short entry, short more profit-taking, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13765 yuan / ton. Positions increased by 3156 to 223790, while Shanghai Aluminum Index positions fell 10370 to 660214. Of these, the turnover of 1912 contracts decreased by 6832 to 93580 to more than 1911 contracts completed by the main force of the month. Today, the day before delivery, the contract position of about 1910 decreased by 9630 to 18050 in the recent month, with a settlement price of $13760 / tonne. In terms of fundamentals, Shanghai Aluminum still maintains a stable consumption at this stage and expects the pattern of increased supply pressure. In this context, due to the continued removal of storage and the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, short stage profits closed, Shanghai aluminum stopped falling. It is expected that the consumption will be stable during the week, the going to the warehouse will continue, and the downward momentum of Shanghai aluminum will be weakened.

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