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[SMM midday review] non-ferrous metals fell below 3% of nickel in Shanghai and continued to fall in black.
Oct 15,2019 12:03CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, Oct. 9: this morning most non-ferrous metals appear green, as of noon closing, non-ferrous general decline, Shanghai nickel fell the biggest, down 3.21% to 132260, only Shanghai aluminum rose.

In terms of data, the National Bureau of Statistics today released national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial producer Price Index) data for September 2019. Shen Jie, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this. First, CPI month-on-month, year-on-year increases have expanded slightly. Second, PPI rose slightly from the previous month, expanding the rate of decline from the same period last year. CPI rose 0.9 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose 3.5 per cent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.73 percentage points; non-food prices rose 0.2 per cent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.15 percentage points. In food, pork supply was tight, and prices continued to rise 19.7 per cent, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting a rise of about 0.65 percentage points in CPI. Affected by increased demand for cooler weather and consumer substitution, the prices of beef, mutton, chicken, duck and eggs rose 4.0%-7.7%, affecting CPI by about 0.16%. "interpretation by the Bureau of Statistics: CPI rose slightly in September 2019 compared with the same period last year. PPI rose slightly from the previous month.

Among them, copper, spot due to recent consideration of spot delivery, spot quotation to maintain the level of delivery near, in addition, due to the recent import of a large number of copper imports, quotation performance is difficult to have room for upward adjustment, and the market transaction is mediocre. Last night, as a result of recent Sino-US trade and Brexit good news was gradually digested on the disk, the market returned to caution, copper prices high walking energy is insufficient, the opening is short. At present, market optimism has come to an end, and there are still concerns about the further development of trade prospects. On the European side, it will still take time to implement an orderly Brexit agreement, and the risks remain.

On the aluminum side, Metro Mining recently completed the final feasibility study (DFS) for the second phase expansion of its bauxite mine in a remote area of northern Queensland, Australia. The results show that the reserves of bauxite mine is 109.5 million tons and the age of bauxite mine reaches 2037. In terms of production, bauxite production is expected to reach 4 million wet tons by 2020 and 6 million wet tons annually thereafter. "Delong Mining Company has completed the feasibility study for the second phase expansion of bauxite mine. The annual output is expected to reach 6 million wet tons.

Black system, mineral materials, double coke are falling. In recent days, the black system has been in a low level before noon, weak demand, pessimism spread or the main reason. Yongan Futures analysts said that the contradiction between high coke inventory has always existed, and the weakening of supply and demand of rebar in the medium term has become the consensus of the industry. Huizhou merchants futures believe that the high supply pattern of steel suppresses the production profits of steel mills, and is expected to be weaker than expected from the National Day to this year's heating season. In addition, before the coke industry has no structured production capacity, and the normalization of environmental protection policies, coke production has increased, at the highest point in nearly five years, coke enterprises in the game bargaining power is weak, coke overall low profit operation.

On the crude oil side, crude oil was also at a low level in the early afternoon, ending several days of gains. In recent days, the main focus has been the meeting between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Ministry of Energy said crude oil production remained at 9.86 million barrels a day in November and reiterated its plan to achieve 12 million barrels a day by the end of November. Russian Energy Minister Novak also said Russia's current crude oil production is down more than 200000 barrels a day from October last year. Gazprom: if necessary, increase crude oil production by 150000 barrels per day within 13 months. Russia does not agree that OPEC+ needs to further strengthen its attitude towards production cuts, which has also made the prospect of a balance between supply and demand again tend to exceed demand.


Today's stock

Aluminum: aluminum flushes high in the early afternoon and then falls back. Today, the price in Guangdong is concentrated in the vicinity of 1378013800 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai is 10 yuan / ton. Today, the holders slightly cherish the sale, strong willingness to offer; middlemen and downstream pick-up driven by low prices, procurement efforts increased compared with yesterday. On the whole, the spot circulation of aluminum ingots in South China today is better than yesterday.

Lead: Shanghai market Sands, South, Mu Ron lead 16850 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water quotation. Period lead weak shock, and today is delivery, the holder quotation is limited, the high price mood does not change, but the recycled refined lead discount expands, generally reports to the SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton leaves the factory, individual hears the discount 400 yuan / ton, at the same time the storage battery market consumption turns weak, the downstream only purchases with the rigid demand, the overall market transaction activity is poor.

Zinc: the mainstream transaction of zinc in Guangdong was 18930-18980 yuan / ton, and the contract for zinc 1911 in Shanghai was reported near 30-50 yuan / ton, while the discount in Guangdong stock market was narrowed from 180 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant. The morning quotation of the holder is concentrated in the average price of-10 yuan / ton, part of which is quoted near the average price, and the price of the contract is quoted in the vicinity of the 11 contract discount of 30-40 yuan / ton; entering the second trading session, the market transaction price is concentrated in the discount of 40-50 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, the disk is pulled up, the willingness to buy downstream is low, and the trading between traders is also light. On the whole, the transaction situation of Guangdong market today is worse than that of yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18930-18980 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 1907020580 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 1907019190 / ton. The 1911 contract rose 70-170 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market was stable at 40 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods is still tight. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in about 130-170 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and the quotation of ordinary brand source is about 7080 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk pull down, light trading, holders see the trend down rising water, but the willingness to buy has not been boosted, downstream buying is still cautious, only to maintain rigid demand to take goods. On the whole, the transaction today is slightly worse than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19070-19190 yuan / ton, while Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 19020-19140 yuan / ton.

Nickel: today, Russian nickel is 200 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911, Jinchuan Nickel is 500-600 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract, and the discount is higher because of the recent improvement in trading. Second, the nickel price has dropped sharply since last night, and the decline continues today, and the holders generally support the rising water. Today's nickel prices as a whole fell more than 3000 yuan / ton from the same trading session yesterday, and the overall transaction converged with yesterday, but the feedback from individual traders was not as active as yesterday. Today, transactions around 133500 were slightly active, it was more difficult for traders to replenish their warehouses, and transactions between downstream and traders improved. Recently Jinchuan company intends to raise water, Jinchuan company ex-factory price of 134000 yuan / ton, 3700 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. Mainstream transactions with 133300 yuan / ton-134300 yuan / ton.

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