[SMM daily review] non-ferrous metal green manure red and black series afternoon lower crude oil rose more than 3%

SMM10 14: today's non-ferrous metals market green manure red, the end of the day close, non-ferrous metal mutual ups and downs. Shanghai copper rose 0.11%; Shanghai aluminum fell 0.69%; Shanghai zinc fell 0.32%; Shanghai lead flat; Shanghai nickel fell 0.01%; Shanghai tin rose 0.61%.

In terms of copper, China imported 445000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, up 10.1% from a month earlier, but still showed a downward trend, down 14.6% from a year earlier, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Monday. From January to September, China imported 3.539 million tons of unwrought copper and copper, down 11.3 per cent from a year earlier. Imports of unwrought copper and copper in September hit a new high since February, mainly because imports of copper improved in August and were mostly profitable, stimulating imports of electrolytic copper. In unwrought copper and copper, refined copper accounted for 70%, so the profit window opened to promote the improvement of refined copper imports, but also led to an increase in unwrought copper and copper imports. But the overall pressure on imports of copper this year remains the same theme. Imports of unwrought copper and copper still fell 11.3 per cent in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period a year earlier. SMM has also repeatedly analyzed the main reasons for the decline in copper imports this year. The problem of underconsumption has led to the need for domestic markets to import copper to fill the gap, so imports of copper are still under a lot of pressure. "[SMM analysis] imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 10.1 per cent in September compared with the previous month, but were still down 11.3 per cent from the same period last year.

Aluminum, the China Automobile Association recently released data in September new energy vehicle sales in September 80,000 year-on-year decline continued to expand to 34.2%. As an important downstream consumption of aluminum, the car industry has a great influence on the aluminum and aluminum alloy market. In September this year, cars entered the traditional "Golden Nine and Silver 10" sales season. From the completion of production and sales data in September this year, compared with the previous month, it showed a marked recovery, and the decline in industry sales was also narrower than that of the previous month, but the decline was still relatively large, continuing the downward trend since July last year. China's automobile production and sales have declined for 15 consecutive months compared with the same period last year, of which new energy vehicles have also declined for three months in a row. Consumption momentum is still in a state of inadequacy. From the perspective of passenger models, all models showed a decline this month compared with the same period last year, and the pressure faced by enterprises did not improve effectively; commercial vehicles were relatively good, and production and sales showed positive growth this month. Chen Shihua, assistant secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that the recovery rate and speed of the automobile industry did not meet expectations, and the retreating slope of new energy vehicle subsidies had a greater impact on the industry, and it had declined for three consecutive months compared with the same period last year. There is a big gap between the expected goal and the actual achievement, and it is full of difficulties to achieve the goal.

On the zinc side, Ruida Futures said that Shanghai zinc rushed higher and fell back to the macro boost. On October 14, the Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract rushes down, hits nearly one since the high, but the upstream power is limited. During the period, it was mainly boosted by the progress of Sino-US trade consultations over the weekend and the improvement of the macro atmosphere. However, the inventory trend of the two markets is divided, showing a state of external reduction and internal increase, and the growth of stocks in Shanghai will limit the rebound power of zinc prices. In addition, the suspension of the decline in the dollar index also put pressure on zinc prices. On the spot, the market transaction is few, the transaction mood is depressed, the trader market transaction is relatively light.

Black, iron ore down 2.37%; thread down 1.32%; stainless steel up 0.13%; thread down 1.32%; hot coil down 0.77%; coke down 2.70%; coking coal down 1.16%. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs today, China exported 5.33 million tons of steel in September 2019, an increase of 324000 tons over the previous month, down 10.42 percent from the same period last year. In the first three quarters, China exported 50.305 million tons of steel, down 5 percent from the same period last year. In September, China imported 1.113 million tons of steel, an increase of 139000 tons over the previous month, down 75600 tons from the same period last year, and 8.751 million tons of steel imported in the third quarter, down 12.2 percent from the same period last year. Due to the decline of domestic steel prices in August and the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the gap between the RMB exchange rate and the international price gap has led to an increase in the willingness of some enterprises to export, to a certain extent, affecting the signing of export orders in September. On the other hand, transportation costs in some areas have risen recently as a result of traffic accidents in Wuxi. "[SMM topic] Wuxi Bridge collapse accident has a serious impact on the Steel Transportation Market and New regulations have been issued around the country.

Crude oil rose 3.45% in the last period. It is understood that Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Saudi Arabia on Monday for the first time in more than a decade, hoping to take the opportunity to strengthen relations with competitors in the Middle East and cooperation in energy policy. Mr. Putin, accompanied by the Russian energy minister and the chairman of the Russian Wealth Fund, will meet with King Salman of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Ben Salman Al-Saud, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia. As a former rival in the oil market, Russia, a non-OPEC oil producer, has joined a production reduction agreement advocated by Saudi Arabia, the leader of the OPEC, forming the OPEC+ to jointly support oil prices, which is also enough to show that relations between the two countries are strengthening. Asked if he was worried that Saudi Arabia was suspected of fawning on Russia, Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, said he did not think it was contradictory. "We do not believe that close relations with Russia will have a negative impact on our relations with the United States," he said on Sunday. "We believe that while developing relations with Russia, we can maintain strategic ties with the United States." During his meeting with Saudi leaders, Mr Putin will discuss the OPEC+ agreement, which provides for co-operation to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day from January.

As of 16:57, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:

Today's capital flow

Black chain, coal crazy gold soft goods debut as a dark horse. Commodity market funds inflow for the third day in a row, the coal plate harvested 737 million funds, black chain index inflow of 627 million funds, soft commodity plate benefited from the cotton surge, rarely absorbed 355 million funds.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on Oct. 14

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened at 47100 yuan / ton in the morning, and then the center of gravity moved down to below the daily average. around 47040 yuan / ton near the narrow range until the afternoon close an hour before the end of the day, then some of the long profit-taking, copper prices fell slightly, closed at 46970 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, up 0.11%. Today, the main contract position of Shanghai Copper increased by 12000 hands to 224000 hands, the trading volume increased by 17000 hands to 154000 hands, the Shanghai Copper Index position increased by 2684 hands to 552000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 10 000 hands to 311000 hands. The overall stability of the day at a high level, mainly due to the recent Sino-US trade temporary "truce" and Britain's optimistic prospects for Brexit, the market mood warmed up, good copper market stand high, but still need to guard against the news surface is digested after the macro weak situation dragged down the market, the current Shanghai copper close Yin, pay attention to the lower 10-day moving average support level in the short term, waiting for the outer plate guidance, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stabilize 47000 yuan / ton level.

Lead: within the day, the Shanghai lead 1911 contract was opened at 17040 yuan / ton, and the collective diving of non-ferrous metals at the beginning of the day was mainly due to the gradual fall of the expectation of a good trade war, and part of the profit-making market fled. During the period, Shanghai lead due to weak fundamentals, very firm short entry in the morning, Shanghai lead plunged rapidly at the beginning of the day, once dropped to 18860 yuan / ton, and then operated within a narrow range of 18890 yuan. Market trading was gradually light, and finally reported at 16920 yuan / ton. Positions increased by 1128 to 50974. Shanghai lead newspaper closed long upper film line, ten thousand seven above throw pressure is bigger, short-term still has the possibility of high fall.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1912 contract opened at 137280 yuan / ton today, shanghai nickel today under the overall pressure 5-day moving average, below by 135000 yuan / ton level support, the center of gravity around 136000 yuan / ton line, the interval concussion operation, finally closed at 135770 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day fell 760 yuan / ton, down 0.56%, position increased by 10 000 hands to 319000 hands, trading volume increased by 355000 hands to 903000 hands. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed in the small negative line of the Shanghai Nickel Line, which broke through the 20-day moving average, exploring the 138000 yuan / ton level, and the K-column closed near the 5-day moving average as a whole. In the evening, we pay attention to the concussion of 136000 yuan / ton Shanghai Nickel 5-day moving average.

Stainless steel: stainless steel futures main contract SS2002 opened at 15765 yuan / ton this morning. Before noon, SS first suppressed and then rose, at the beginning of the day, the level more into, SS tried to break through the daily average line failed, shock fell, bottomed 15740 yuan / ton, long position, SS hit bottom rebounded to break through the daily average line, touch high 15810 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, with long and short caution, the center of gravity of ss fluctuates up and down around the daily moving average, with an amplitude of 30 yuan / ton. Near the close, short positions increased to 15765 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton, or 0.13%. A total of 9842 hands were traded and 14774 hands were held throughout the day, an increase of 120 hands per day compared with the previous settlement, closing in the negative line. Under the dual support of raw material cost and logistics cost, the price of stainless steel is easy to rise but difficult to fall, but at the same time, the truck capacity is declining, dragging down the demand for stainless steel, short-term high is still difficult to get an effective breakthrough.

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