10. 14 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Trading: on Friday, the 1912 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 13865 yuan / ton, and after the intraday bottom of 13600 yuan / ton, the night trading fluctuated in a narrow range of 13750 yuan / ton, closing at 13790 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton, or 0.79%. Lun aluminum was suppressed by domestic shanghai aluminum, shock and leakage after the opening, vomiting rose within the week, closed at $1722 / ton, down 28 dollars / ton, down 1.6%, mainly short positions.
Macro: (1) on Friday afternoon, local time, Trump said that Sino-US economic and trade consultations have achieved substantial results and will suspend the decision to impose tariffs on China next week. The original plan was to raise tariffs on Chinese goods from 25 per cent to 30 per cent on the 15th. (2) the British government said that there was still a long way to go before the final Brexit agreement, and that the weekend and next week would still be crucial; (3) on the 11th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would restart its expansion table in October to ease liquidity pressure, and the dollar index went down.
Fundamentals: on the bauxite side, Indonesia is considering adjusting the bauxite use tax because of the surge in bauxite production in Western Canada, after authorities were considering speeding up the export ban on bauxite, tin and other products in September. Alumina prices rose slightly last week in the north, Guangxi and Guizhou; In terms of pre-baked anodes, the heating season is approaching, and various localities have not yet come out of Taiwan's specific production restriction policy. Hubei carbon enterprises will limit production by 50 per cent in October because of the CISM World Games meeting. In terms of inventory, the stock of aluminum ingots in today's society is expected to fall by 32000 tons to 945000 tons compared with last Thursday.
Spot: on Friday morning, the spot transaction prices of the two places in Shanghai Wuxi market were mostly concentrated in the range of 13960-13980 yuan / ton, the price was about 20-30 yuan / ton, and the price was 20 yuan / ton lower than the previous one. Due to the approach of the weekend, downstream manufacturers prepare a small number of goods, but still less than expected by the market. East China closed on Friday as a whole. This morning, the spot selling pressure is serious, the monthly price difference narrows rapidly, the spot transaction concentrates to that month flat water to rise 10 yuan / ton.
Conclusion: attention should be paid to the persistence of consumption downstream after the festival and the change of market long-short sentiment after the main force change month. It is expected that the short-term main operating range of Shanghai Aluminum is concentrated in the range of 1365013950 yuan / ton. The spread between contracts focuses on 10-01 back structural opportunities. The inner and outer structures continue to be held.
(SMM Li Hao)
