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[2019.10.14 minutes of Zinc Internal Morning meeting] Macro-emotional good Zinc Price taking advantage of the trend
Oct 14,2019 09:28CST
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The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM October 14 Zinc Morning meeting: macro mood good Zinc Price take advantage of the trend to go higher

 

Zinc morning meeting: macro: after the end of the Sino-US economic and trade talks, US President Trump met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu he in the Oval Office of the White House. According to comprehensive media reports, China and the United States have reached an agreement on the first phase of the trade agreement. The Federal Reserve said it will start buying about $60 billion of short-term bonds a month to ensure that the banking system has "sufficient reserves," but stressed that the new plan does not mark a change in monetary policy. The purchases, which will begin on October 15th, are in response to the recent turmoil in the short-term money markets. The "technical" measures will last until at least the second quarter of 2020. The Fed also said it would continue to operate on a daily basis until January to inject money into the overnight lending market.

 

Fundamentals: spot Review on Friday: disk pull up downstream Purchasing bias cautious

 

Shanghai: in the first trading session, the holder mainly traded flat on the average price of SMM, and some of the holders reported a 130 yuan / ton increase in the 1911 contract, but the spot discount was too weak. Some of the holders took the initiative to lower the price to 1911 yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the zinc price continued to be weak, with the holder slightly raising the water quotation, some reported to the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton; the second trading session, the zinc price continued weak downward line, the holder slightly raised the water quotation, some reported to the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton; Near the first batch of long order delivery, traders are active in the market, the overall transaction is still good, downstream on-demand procurement, but due to the rapid rise in zinc prices, the overall procurement is still more cautious.

 

Guangdong: disk pull up, refinery active shipment, the market supply circulation is very abundant. The morning quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, but the consignee was willing to receive the goods at the discount of 40 yuan / ton, and the market transaction showed a slight stalemate; entering the second trading period, some of the holders lowered the price to around 40 yuan / ton for the 11 contract, and the market transaction improved slightly. Overall, today's rally, downstream cautious wait and see, mostly rigid demand to buy, today's main trading by traders to contribute, but the overall transaction situation has been worse than the day before.

 

Tianjin: refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the tight supply trend shows signs of loosening again. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of about 150-200 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and that of ordinary brand is about 80100 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk steadily upward, rising water downgrade efforts to increase, before the festival bargain reserve makes the downstream supply on hand is sufficient, the downstream purchase intention is weak, still mainly to inquire and wait and see. On the whole, the transaction today is once again worse than yesterday.

 

Inventory: as of October 11, the social inventory of zinc in the three places was down 7200 tons from October 8, an increase of 3000 tons to 138900 tons from September 30. From the point of view of the regional situation, the three places have declined in varying degrees. From the downstream feedback, the intensity of environmental protection on National Day this year is relatively small, and the situation in the lower reaches is better than during the first two years of the National Day, the overall zinc price before the National Day is low, and the willingness to replenish warehouses downstream is good; on the other hand, there is a large loss in the import window this year, and the supply of imports in Shanghai has shrunk greatly, contributing to the reduction of some inventories.

 

Bonded area inventory: according to SMM, as of October 11, Shanghai bonded area zinc ingot inventory 84600 tons, 1500 tons lower than September 27 before the festival.

 

Zinc price: overnight zinc received four Lianyang, once again recorded a long red line, the whole around Brin Road on the track, KDJ indicators neatly upward, showing Lun zinc or some support. The decline in LME zinc stocks for several consecutive days also supported zinc prices. However, macro uncertainty is still strong, Lun zinc or upward space is limited. Overnight, Shanghai zinc turned negative to yang, jumped to run above the EMA, the MACD green column turned red, showing that Shanghai zinc was temporarily supported, and the social inventory of the three places dropped by more than 7, 000 tons, further verifying the market's expectation of post-festival inventory removal, indicating that downstream consumption is better, superimposed on substantial progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, and partly boosting market confidence. However, the economic and financial data to be released this week is expected to be weak, Shanghai zinc or action can be limited.

 

Today is expected: Lun zinc or range is expected to run at 2360-2420 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract or run at 18800-19300 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose 60 yuan per ton.

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