[SMM Analysis] the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in September was lower than expected.

SMM, Oct. 12: according to SMM research data, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in September was 76.81%, down 3.32 percentage points from the same period last year, and up 1.36 percentage points from the previous month.

In September, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased month-on-month, first, the main reason is that the downstream cable enterprises concentrated storage before the 11th section, and the pick-up volume increased, which led to the demand for copper rods. Second, refined copper rod instead of scrap copper rod consumption, waste copper rod consumption in September still has no advantage, the order is still flat, to a certain extent to support the consumption of refined copper rod. However, in September, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was lower than expected, and some refined copper rod enterprises reported that downstream cable "Jinjiu Yin10" consumption was lower than in previous years, resulting in limited growth in copper rod orders and lower than expected consumption.

In September, the raw material inventory ratio of refined copper rod enterprises was 10.72%, up 0.28 percentage points from the previous month. September is about to usher in the 11th holiday, copper rod enterprises to increase the purchase of pre-festival storage, but most enterprises are not optimistic about the subsequent consumption, at the same time, the market for the macro trend and copper prices still have greater uncertainty, the enthusiasm of the warehouse is not as strong as in previous years, slightly cautious.

It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will drop slightly to 74.78% in October.

According to SMM research, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in October is expected to be 74.78%, a year-on-year decline of 1.64 percentage points, a month-on-month decline of 2.03 percentage points. In October, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined. On the one hand, some enterprises had a factory holiday during the National Day holiday, which affected some of the output. On the other hand, the amount of power investment is still not good, according to SMM, downstream cable enterprises for the fourth quarter cable consumption optimism has gradually weakened; but on the whole, October is still the start of infrastructure, power and other projects in the peak season, the overall demand will remain stable.