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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 11
Oct 11,2019 20:35CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 11
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5773.5 / tonne, yesterday's Sino-US trade negotiations sent an optimistic signal, the Brexit talks made new progress, boosted by the double good boost Lunlun copper rose sharply, today the Asian plate copper prices remained high shock, the center of gravity at $5780 / ton position. The price of copper began to fall back before the European market, and fell 5764.5 yuan / ton after entering the European session, but the bulls actively increased their positions when the market risk sentiment has been repaired, and the copper price rebounded and continued to rise, reaching as high as $5801 / ton. As of 17: 30, Lun Copper closed at $5799 a tonne, up 0.32 per cent, with the dollar index at 98.579 and US crude oil at 54.47. In the evening, look at the initial level of consumer confidence at the University of Michigan in October. At present, the copper collecting entity is already above all moving averages and needs to find a new operating range. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun copper can effectively break through the $5800 / ton mark.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 46970 yuan / ton in the morning, then the center of gravity remained stable between 46910 and 46980 yuan / ton, and then slightly pulled up to the highest level of 47060 yuan / ton in the day. After a small rise, the center of gravity slipped to 46950 yuan / ton and closed at 46910 yuan / ton, up 310 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.67%. Today, the main contract position of Shanghai Copper increased by 9.4 million hands to 212000 hands, the trading volume increased by 48000 hands to 137000 hands, the daily position of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 22000 hands to 549000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 55000 hands to 301000 hands. Today, the Shanghai copper plate continued to maintain the night high level, mainly due to the improvement in Sino-US trade sentiment, market confidence is optimistic, Shanghai copper continued to maintain stability at the 47000 yuan / ton level, but as the global macroeconomic situation is still on the low side, we need to guard against the impact of falling optimism on the disk, and continue to pay attention to the results of today's Sino-US trade negotiations. At present, Shanghai copper returned to Yang for the first time after three consecutive yin, the MACD green column also continued to shorten, the technical side is slightly good, waiting for the outer plate guidance in the evening to test whether Shanghai copper can continue to break through the 47000 yuan / ton level.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 120 ~ 170 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47020 yuan / ton ~ 47080 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47040 yuan / ton ~ 47100 yuan / ton. Trade sentiment between China and the United States has temporarily shown signs of easing, overnight Shanghai copper performance rebounded, copper prices rose to 46900 yuan / ton line today. The return of copper futures suppressed yesterday's positive buying mood. Morning market holders still want to continue yesterday's quotation of 150 yuan / ton to 180 yuan / ton. However, there is little initiative in the market today. Fearing heights gradually rises, the holder has no choice but to open the downward model. Good copper quotation rises 150-160 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper down to 130-140 yuan / ton, although there are some transactions, but the overall market atmosphere is not as good as yesterday. The holder continued to take the initiative to reduce the price to close the deal. The second section of the trading stage, in the shipping difficult to cash pressure environment, the holder's willingness to cash further strengthened, rising water quotation more than, flat copper quotation as low as 120 yuan / ton, part of the good copper as low as 140 yuan / ton, wet copper down faster, the quotation from the early market around 100 yuan / ton down to 70 ~ 80 yuan / ton. Today's market is stacked with empty news, reversing yesterday's high buying mood. The import copper window has been open for two days since the opening of the post-festival market. It is expected that a large number of imported copper goods will be put into storage over the weekend. At the same time, the "Wuxi viaduct collapse" incident that occurred last night, on the one hand, affected traffic, on the one hand, escalated the severity of logistics overload, and to a certain extent limited the willingness to buy goods downstream. And two days before the copper price low when the downstream has been continuous replenishment, short-term downstream performance will be cautious wait and see, the holder risk aversion is strong, the initiative to turn to the buyer, resulting in today's market upside down, can completely press the price of transactions, traders receive goods intended to lower the water level, strong and weak characteristics are obvious. In the afternoon, near the weekend, the overall market buyout is weaker, the holder shipment exchange is more urgent, the rising water still continues to decline, in the afternoon Pingshui copper rising water 110-120 yuan / ton, good copper report 130-140 yuan / ton, the transaction price is 47010 yuan / ton-47110 yuan / ton range.



Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1754 per ton in the morning. In the Asian period, Lun aluminum maintained a weak shock above the 5-day moving average, ending at 15: 00 at $1744 / ton. In Europe, Lun aluminum fell sharply, quickly falling below the 10-day moving average, ending at 18: 27 at $1727 a tonne, the lowest of the day. It is expected that in the evening Lun aluminum will try to continue to dive, under the weakness of the US index, or will recover slightly after the bottom.


Shanghai aluminum main force 1911 contract opened in the morning at 13875 yuan / ton. After the opening of a small number of short admission, Shanghai aluminum broke through the 5-day moving average high touch 13910 yuan / ton. After being quickly suppressed by short entry, Shanghai aluminum entered the downward mode, quickly fell below the 5-day moving average, Shanghai aluminum accelerated downlink in the afternoon, the low once hit 13600 yuan / ton. The end of the session closed at 13760 yuan / ton. The position increased by 1872 to 190108, and the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased by 1026 to 684334. It is expected that the main force of Shanghai Aluminum will be changed into the 1912 contract in the evening, and the trend of Shanghai Aluminum fundamentals has changed from strong to weak, but under the risk of negotiations between China and the United States next week, some short sellers may temporarily leave the market and wait and see. At the same time, consumption at this stage may still make it possible to continue to go to the warehouse. Therefore, it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will remain weak and fluctuate next week, with its center of gravity slightly moving down, with an operating range of 13650 yuan / ton.


Spot market, aluminum in the early afternoon of the month in the first trading stage wide shock, the second trading session fell sharply. In the morning, the spot transaction prices of the two places in Shanghai Wuxi market are mostly concentrated in the range of 13960-13980 yuan / ton, and the price is about 20-30 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that of yesterday. In the morning market, large customers receive goods actively, receive more than 10,000 tons at more recognized prices in the morning, the shippers are more active, the two sides are active in trading, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 1397013990 yuan / ton. As the aluminum price falls, The holder quotation began to concentrate in 13940-13950 yuan / ton, the disk rose 30 yuan / near, but because the aluminum price fell faster, the holder constricted shipment, some middlemen also began to wait and see, the market transaction heat turned weak, at this time the transaction was less. Due to the approach of the weekend, downstream manufacturers have a small amount of stock today, but still not as expected. The overall transaction in East China is OK today. In the afternoon, aluminum continued to fall back, some of the holders quoted in the vicinity of 13900 yuan / ton, the water rose 80-100 yuan / ton every other month, the water rose about 20 yuan / ton that month, the transaction is less, the market performance is on the sidelines, the atmosphere is light.



Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 2152.5 US dollars / ton, Asia time, at the beginning of the day, Lun lead temporarily along the daily average line, near noon, due to the continued weakness of the US index, boost Lun lead upward, into the European period, driven by the strong trend of Lun Zinc, Lun lead once climbed to 2166 US dollars / ton, the center of gravity also accelerated upward movement, as of 15: 44, Lun lead temporarily closed at 2164 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, an increase of 0.46 per cent. Lun lead temporarily closed the small positive line, initially opened the uplink channel, but the 5-day moving average trend leveled out, the weekly level, Lun lead continued upward trend, so it is expected that at night Lun lead may continue to bear pressure on Brin Road track 2175 US dollars / ton.


Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 16965 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, part of the short entry to suppress the lead price to 16835 yuan / ton, the latter part to undertake bargain entry, Shanghai lead rose back to 16895 yuan / ton first-line consolidation, near the end of the day, Shanghai lead attempted to strengthen, but the upper averages suppressed the pace of uplink, resulting in Shanghai lead rushed up to no result, finally closed at 16900 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton, down 0.09%, position reduced by 1124 to 49846 hands, but the upper average line suppressed the pace of uplink, and finally closed at 16900 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton, down 0.09%, position reduced by 1124 to 49846 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the small negative line, the lower 60-day moving average has a strong support, taking into account the outer plate lead into the European period continued to pull up, expected at night or a little lead trend in Shanghai, but the upward space is limited.


Shanghai market Jinsha, southern lead 1688016900 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water to rising water 20 yuan / ton quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Jinli, Wanyang, Jingui 16880 yuan / ton, 1911 contract flat water quotation, of which white goods can be discounted 20-10 yuan / ton. Lead price weak shock, downstream basic on-demand procurement, and due to near delivery, holders of low prices to sell, the offer is not much changed from yesterday, at the same time recycled lead discount is larger, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead discount 350,200 yuan / ton, market transactions concentrated in the recycled lead plate, lead ingot trade market light.


Guangdong market South China lead 16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jinsha 16900 yuan / ton, 1911 contract water 20 yuan / ton quotation; lead price continues weak shock, the overall market procurement is still relatively low, the market transaction is dull. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16825 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 25 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, downstream is still mainly to digest raw material inventory, the market transaction is light. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16800 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton (traders); Hechi south 16730 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 120 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper 16830 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 30 yuan / ton; Anhui copper crown 16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16500-16550 yuan / ton, the average discount price of SMM1# lead 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, the holder active shipment, but the downstream basically wait and see, the market seldom has the transaction, the overall transaction is bleak.



Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2369.5 / ton, and Zinc tried to go up to US $2375 / ton in a narrow range. However, the pressure on Brin Road was strong, and the pressure on Zinc fell back to US $2365 / ton to find support. Breaking through the suppression of the daily average, the center of gravity moved up to US $2375 / ton. In the European trading session, Zinc pulled up again and fell back after touching US $2394 / ton until 15: 52. Lun Zinc closed up $19, or 0.8 per cent, at $2388. Geneva zinc received a small positive line, the overall operation around Brin Road on the track, the macro mood gradually warmed up, the overseas Skorpion smelter shutdown news once again stimulated zinc prices, overseas back structure once again expanded, overseas supply or tightening again, Lun Zinc temporary further support, pay attention to Brin Road on track suppression at night.


Today, Shanghai zinc completed the main force of the month, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract opened at 19010 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc briefly touched 19015 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, then fell back to 18930 yuan / ton first line shock operation, 20 days moving average line support strength appeared, Shanghai zinc returned to the daily average line 18980 yuan / ton around the finishing operation, recorded a V shape, the afternoon long left Shanghai zinc frustrated downlink, the end of the day slightly pulled up, closed up 18975 yuan / ton, up 185 yuan / ton from the previous trading. Up 0.98%, trading volume decreased by 17584 hands to 186000 hands, position decreased by 5352 hands to 149000 hands. Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 19005 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day Shanghai zinc tried to test the suppression strength of Wanjiu pass, failed to make a trip, fell back to 18960 yuan / ton, then again upward pressure fell back to 18920 yuan / ton, narrow shock operation, afternoon more empty, boost Shanghai zinc uplink to 18970 yuan / ton near, but failed to stick to, Shanghai zinc fell to 18940 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed up slightly. It closed up at 18960 yuan / ton, up 190 yuan / ton, or 1.01%, from the previous session. Trading volume increased by 23000 hands to 134000 hands, and positions increased by 10340 hands to 153000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc received a small negative line, with the shadow line under the 20-day moving average, the MACD index formed a golden fork, indicating that Shanghai zinc still exists on the action energy. Domestic three places social inventory recorded a decline in the day, indicating that the lower reaches of consumption power after the National Day is still more optimistic, superimposed macro news slightly warmer, bulls enter the market to boost zinc prices, however, under the strong suppression of the upper Wanjiu pass, Shanghai zinc action can be considered temporarily, pay attention to the support strength of the lower EMA at night.


The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 1906019120 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 1906019130 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 120-130 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 130 yuan / ton in November, and that of Shuangyan was 189901950 yuan / ton. In the first trading period, the average price of SMM net was flat, and some of the holders reported a rise of 130 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. However, the transaction situation of spot discount was weak, and some of the holders took the initiative to reduce the price of zinc to 1911 yuan / tonne. In the second trading session, the zinc price continued to be weak, with the holder slightly raising the price of rising water, and some reported a rise of 130 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract. Near the first batch of long order delivery, traders are active in the market, the overall transaction is still good, downstream on-demand procurement, but due to the rapid rise in zinc prices, the overall procurement is still more cautious.


Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18850-18950 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract reported in the discount water 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong stock market than Shanghai stock market discount maintained at 150 yuan / ton yesterday. Disk pull up, refinery active shipment, the market supply circulation is very abundant. The morning quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, but the consignee was willing to receive the goods at the discount of 40 yuan / ton, and the market transaction showed a slight stalemate; entering the second trading period, some of the holders lowered the price to around 40 yuan / ton for the 11 contract, and the market transaction improved slightly. Overall, today's rally, downstream cautious wait and see, mostly rigid demand to buy, today's main trading by traders to contribute, but the overall transaction situation has been worse than the day before. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18850-18950 yuan / ton near.


The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 19000-20630 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 19000-19150 / ton, and the contract for 1911 rose by 80-200 yuan / tonne. The rising water in Tianjin market narrowed from 70 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival to 40 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the tight supply trend shows signs of loosening again. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of about 150-200 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and that of ordinary brand is about 80100 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk steadily upward, rising water downgrade efforts to increase, before the festival bargain reserve makes the downstream supply on hand is sufficient, the downstream purchase intention is weak, still mainly to inquire and wait and see. Whole



Tin: after the opening of US $16395 / ton today, the overall arrangement of the opening price during the morning to noon of the Asian plate was maintained at the opening price. In the afternoon of the Asian plate, Lun Xi rushed up to $16445 / ton and returned to the opening price again. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi fell to $16380 / tonne and then bottomed out to $16445 / tonne and then fell again. As of 17: 30, the latest price of Lunxi was $16415 / tonne, showing a small positive line, with the physical part near the 5-day moving average and supported by the 10-day moving average below. The support below Lunxi is expected to be located at the integer level of $16000 / tonne. Take a look at the initial consumer confidence index at the University of Michigan in October.


Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 136520 yuan / ton, the overall end of the session in 136600 yuan / ton near a wide shock, the highest rushed to a daily high of 137050 yuan / ton after being blocked to fall back. After the opening of 136430 yuan / ton in early trading today, at the beginning of the session, as a result of long and short forces, it quickly fell to a daily low of 135590 yuan / ton and then quickly returned to the shock finishing below the daily average line of 136400 yuan / tonne. Finally, it closed at 136150 yuan / ton, down 520 yuan / ton, down 0.38%, trading volume 27272 hands, position volume 38868 hands, down 380 hands. Today, the tin center of gravity in Shanghai has fallen, closed with a small negative line, the physical part of the bottom by the 5-10 moving average support, Shanghai tin is expected to support below the 40-60 day moving average of 135000 yuan / ton.


Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 136000-137500 yuan / ton, early tin prices down the spot market there are 135500 yuan / ton low-price small brand supply. Today, only a small number of downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing in the Shanghai tin spot market, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai tin spot market is weak. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rising water 800-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 200-400 yuan / ton, small brand discount 200 yuan / ton-flat water.



Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $17565 / tonne, fell by $17445 / tonne at the beginning of the session and quickly rebounded to $17650 / tonne under pressure, with a narrow range of fluctuations around $17600 / tonne. In the afternoon, Lunni rebounded after falling again to $17470 / tonne, rising by $17660 / tonne to $17655 / tonne at 16: 30, up $60 / tonne, or 0.34%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 3020 hands to 1849 hands, and positions decreased by 3000 hands to 272000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small positive line, the shadow line down 5 / 10 moving average, but the K column as a whole stands above the 5-day moving average, paying attention to whether Lunni can stand on the 5-day moving average in the evening. This evening, we looked at the monthly rate of the US import price index for September; the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in October.


Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 136980 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day indoor shock fell, lower 135130 yuan / ton, then, short positions reduced, Shanghai nickel rebounded upward repair, back to 137000 yuan / ton line, forming a V trend. In the afternoon, the Shanghai nickel pressure 5-day moving average, the center of gravity fluctuated around 136800 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 136900 yuan / ton, an increase of 660 yuan / ton, or 0.48%, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 90, 000 hands to 548000 hands, and positions increased by 3000 hands to 308000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative line, the whole is still in the 5 / 10 moving average of 137000 yuan / ton near a narrow range of concussion, continue to pay attention to the Shanghai nickel at 137000 yuan / ton level of concussion.


Today, Russian nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 flat water to 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally reported 200-300 yuan / ton, rising water continued to maintain stability yesterday, Jinchuan nickel rose water, holders reported up 300 yuan / ton. Today, nickel prices out of the deep V, early trading hours, nickel prices from 137300 all the way down to 135800 near, the spot market response was mediocre, spot transactions did not improve significantly. After traders agreed on the source of goods before delivering to steel mills yesterday, the market was flat today. Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded to near the opening price in 135800, and the market continued its morning mood, with fewer buyers entering the market. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137700 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. In the afternoon, nickel prices continue to operate on the strong side, the market is still active and weak, traders continue to raise the discount, the mainstream transaction in 137300-137600 yuan / ton.






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