[SMM Cobalt Lithium spot Weekly] weak dynamic demand for post-holiday trading (1008-1011)

SMM, Oct. 11: in terms of power batteries, according to the SMM database, the production of new energy vehicles in September totaled 76000, an increase of 7 percent over the previous month and a decrease of 23.2 percent from the same period last year. The installed capacity of power batteries was 3.9GWhH, down 30.8% from a year earlier and up 14.8% from the previous month. According to industry customers, the current leading battery companies still do not have a new production scheduling plan, lithium iron phosphate battery demand remains strong, supply exceeds demand, ternary battery demand is still slightly weak, or improve by the end of October. According to industry customers, all auto companies have plans to cut production targets, with each mainframe factory cutting 20, 000 to 50, 000 vehicles, and there may be room for further cuts in new energy vehicle production for the whole year.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: the price of domestic cobalt is flat this week. During the National Day period, the increase in foreign media is limited, the domestic downstream wait-and-see mood is heavier, the weekly end of the futures market accelerated decline, lack of market confidence, trading sporadic. In the case of cobalt hydroxide, the manufacturer suspended the zero order offer and contemplated the details of the signing of the long order. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 28.5-295000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of cobalt hydroxide in SMM is $11-12 per pound, the average price is the same as last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: after the festival cobalt salt trade is light, downstream much reserve storehouse to the end of the month, the current mainly to digest inventory, a small amount of zero cobalt sulfate replenishment, the trading price is difficult to break through the 60000 barrier. The quotation of cobalt chloride manufacturers rose again to more than 75000 yuan / ton, further strengthening the rise of cobalt sulfate. The price of cobalt sulfate in SMM is 56, 000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 7.1-76000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from last week. The price of nickel sulfate in SMM battery grade is 31300-32300 yuan / ton, up 800 yuan / ton from last week.

Cobalt tetroxide: downstream is the peak consumption season, the next month is still no sign of weakening, cobalt chloride manufacturers have a strong attitude, four cobalt plant under the pressure of rising raw material prices gradually raised the price. The current price of SMM cobalt oxide is 22-230000 yuan / ton, up 2000 yuan / ton from last week.

Ternary precursor: the trading price of the body rose slightly before the yuan on Wednesday, the price of nickel and cobalt raw materials remained strong, and producers tried their best to transmit cost pressure downstream, but demand in the power market remained sluggish. Fierce competition in the digital market makes it difficult for sellers to negotiate and the cost transmission speed is slow. The price of SMM ternary precursor (type 523) is 10.1-106000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622) is 10.8-112000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from last week.

Lithium carbonate: the price of lithium carbonate is stable after the festival. According to industry sources, taking into account the weather, cost, inventory and other factors, Qinghai, Jiangxi some manufacturers may be in the near future price adjustment. Downstream buyers are cautious about the price hike plan. Considering that there is no obvious improvement in the demand of the downstream power market, and there are still a large number of ores and smelting products to be digested, the price trend of lithium carbonate is still not optimistic for a long time. This week, the price of lithium carbonate in SMM battery grade is 5.9-62000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. This week, the price of SMM industrial grade zero lithium carbonate is 4.95-53500 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium hydroxide: the price of lithium hydroxide fell slightly this week. After the festival lithium hydroxide transaction atmosphere is light, the large factory production and sales performance is strong, some small factories adjust the production strategy, reduce the supply. The price difference between battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) and battery grade lithium carbonate is narrowing, considering that the current domestic demand is still limited, the price has further pressure room, but as the price of lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, the current decline is slowing down. This week SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) price is 6.4-68000 yuan / ton, the average price is 500 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Lithium cobalt: the price of lithium cobalt continues to rise, the order of the terminal battery factory is full, and the material factory will transmit the price of lithium cobalt after rising one after another. The price of lithium cobalt sulfate in SMM4.35V is 23.5-245000 yuan / ton, up 5000 yuan / ton from last week.

Ternary materials: the price of ternary materials rose slightly this week, the installed capacity and sales volume disclosed by the terminal is still not ideal, power ternary orders are difficult to improve, some power ternary manufacturers switch to the digital direction, aggravating the competitive pressure in the digital market. The price of SMM ternary material (type 523) is 14.7-155000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from last week. The price of SMM ternary material (model 622) is 16.5-172000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton from last week.

Demand for lithium iron phosphate remained strong this week. Due to the continuous improvement of the concentration of battery enterprises, the premium capacity of power lithium iron phosphate enterprises has been weakened. Although the price of phosphoric acid, one of the raw materials, has been rising recently, it is almost difficult for iron-lithium material plants to conduct price transmission downstream; at the same time, in order to maintain existing customers, some enterprises may choose industrial lithium carbonate, which is cheaper to produce, the price of lithium iron phosphate is under pressure, but because the current production enterprises have made a lot of profits, the price decline is limited. This week SMM lithium iron phosphate (power) price is 4.4-47000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 2000 yuan / ton from last week.

Lithium manganate: the price of lithium manganate is down this week from last week. At present, the demand of lithium manganate market is relatively stable, but there is still a surplus in the market supply, and the competition in the market of volumetric lithium manganate is fierce. At the same time, affected by the decline in the price of raw materials upstream, the average price fell. This week SMM lithium manganate (volume) price is 2.6-32000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 2000 yuan / ton from last week. This week, SMM lithium manganate (power) price is 4.3-45000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 1000 yuan / ton from last week.

Future forecast:

SMM expects cobalt prices to fluctuate by 15% in October, with downward pressure in the first half of the month, and in the second half of the month, due to the proximity of monthly purchase orders and the signing of orders for the annual nickel and cobalt annual meeting, the supply side may send out more profitable news, which is more likely to rise. Lithium, the current positive demand is relatively stable, lithium salt price downward space is limited, short-term Qinghai and Jiangxi producers weak willingness to reduce prices, lithium salt prices or low small shocks.

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