10. 11 minutes of the internal aluminum morning meeting of the SMM

Disk: overnight US index lower, outer plate basic metal more red, Lun aluminum closed at $1750 / ton, up 0.37%. Shanghai aluminum main night open low, the final close at 13865 yuan / ton, mainly short positions.

Macro: (1) overseas, Federal Reserve Kashkali said that if the current data continues, another rate cut can be determined; if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, it will support it; there is not expected to be a recession, but warned that there is such a possibility; At the dawn of a soft Brexit, short-term Treasury yields rose by their biggest one-day gain in five weeks, with sterling rising sharply. (2) on the domestic side, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said: China has become one of the most popular investment destinations for enterprises all over the world for many years in a row, and our policy of creating a good environment for enterprises from all over the world to invest in China will not change. The policy of protecting the legitimate rights and interests of foreign enterprises in China will not change.

Fundamentals: electrolytic aluminum, the western hydropower previously planned to resume production of 150000 tons, its resumption of production progress is relatively slow, at present only 50, 000 tons, operating capacity is still only 350000 tons. It now plans to resume production of another 50, 000 tons in October, when operating capacity will reach 400000 tons. In terms of inventory, due to the continuous concentration of goods from aluminum plants after the festival, SMM statistics showed that the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China on the 10th was 8000 tons higher than that on Monday.

Spot: Shanghai Wuxi market spot quotation is mostly concentrated in 13980-14000 yuan / ton, to the plate water 30-50 yuan / ton, the price fell back 70 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, Hangzhou spot price in 14000-14020 yuan / ton. Downstream manufacturers yesterday on-demand goods-based, there is not much change. East China as a whole closed on Thursday. It is estimated that the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China is expected to rise by 2040 yuan / ton that month.

Summary: attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption in the lower reaches after the festival. It is expected that the short-term main operating range of Shanghai Aluminum will be concentrated in the range of 13800 / 14200 yuan / ton. The spread between contracts focuses on 11-01 back structural opportunities. The inner and outer structures continue to be held.

(SMM Li Hao)