Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 10

Copper: today, Yapanlun copper opened at US $5671.5 / tonne. After the earlier macro-bearish was digested, and the market was optimistic about the limited agreement between China and the United States in economic and trade negotiations, the center of gravity began to move up after the opening copper price fell in the short term. In the morning, it rose by $5717 / ton and adjusted the range here. The dollar index fell sharply in the afternoon as the Fed minutes showed that most policymakers supported the need to cut interest rates at the September meeting, sending Lun copper higher after entering the European session, pushing copper prices to $5749 a tonne. The rally was blocked after approaching $5750, falling back to $5721.5 in the short term and then back to around $5740 a tonne again. As of 16: 20, Lun Copper closed up 0.96% at $5742.5 / tonne, with the dollar index at 98.774 and US crude oil at 52.36. Evening focus on the U. S. CPI index for September and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 5. At present, Lun copper collection of solid columns, recovery of the recent hovering low area, but above there is direct pressure from the 20-day and 40-day moving average. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night to test whether Lun copper can break through the pressure level of $5750 / tonne.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened at 46530 yuan / ton in the morning, opening at the lowest level of 46530 yuan / ton in the day, nearly breaking the 46500 level, then rebounding 46630 yuan / ton and then continuing to fall back, the center of gravity briefly stabilized at the 46600 yuan / ton level, then the bulls entered the market, and the market continued to pull up until the close, closing at 46700 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, up 0.06%. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased its position by 11000 hands to 211000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 1224 hands to 89000 hands. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 14000 hands to 571000 hands, while trading volume decreased by 14000 hands to 246000 hands. Copper rose in Shanghai today, mainly because the Federal Reserve just released the minutes of its September meeting. Most officials believe that it is necessary to cut interest rates in order to resist the recession. The market is expected to cut interest rates. The US index has fallen to around 98.7. Shanghai Copper has been boosted slightly, while investors are waiting for a message from recent negotiations between China and the United States to judge the trend of the economy. At present, Shanghai copper has fallen 3 days in a row, continue to close negative today, the top has lost all the moving average support. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand firm 46700 yuan / ton line.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 130 ~ 170 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46700 yuan / ton ~ 46750 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 46720 yuan / ton ~ 46770 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper continued to bear pressure down to 46500 yuan / ton near, the plate continued to fall holders firm willingness to lift water, morning market holders quoted water 130 ~ 150 yuan / ton, in the traders continue to take the initiative to receive the lead, the rising water 130 yuan / ton of flat water copper was quickly closed, the holder raised confidence, continue to raise the offer, Pingshui copper reported to the rising water 140 ~ 150 yuan / ton, good copper was raised to 160 ~ 170 yuan / ton. When trading in the second quarter, Pingshui copper continued to be favored by the market, has been led by some large traders to lift to 160 yuan / ton, good copper performance is passive, although the corresponding lift to 180 yuan / ton, but the transaction to maintain stability in the vicinity of 170 yuan / ton, slightly less than flat copper, wet copper is still with the rise, quoted from 100 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton. Copper prices around 46500 yuan / ton are generally recognized by downstream manufacturers of the buying range, today's downstream initiative buying increased significantly, traders and downstream have concentrated into the market, traders continue to lead the morning market receiving tide, transaction preference, market transactions to maintain a warm atmosphere. In the afternoon, the spot market remained stable in the quotation range of high rising water. Due to the recovery of disk price performance in the afternoon, downstream buying was lower than in the morning, but because the inquiry sentiment remained positive, it also gave the holder the confidence to continue to bid. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 150-160 yuan / ton, good copper reported 170-180 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 46760 yuan / ton-46860 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1742.5 per ton in the morning. In the Asian session, Lun aluminum strong shock, trying to repair the day before yesterday's decline, maintained a strong shock in the afternoon, relatively weak in the afternoon, fell below the 5-day moving average low touched 1738.5 US dollars / ton, as of 15: 00 aluminum to 1741 US dollars / ton, giving back to the day before noon gains. In Europe, the dollar fell, Lun aluminum tried to rush up again, Lun aluminum rebounded again to touch $1749 / ton, Lun aluminum maintained a strong shock, as of 18: 21 aluminum to 1746.5 dollars / ton. After the bottom of Lun aluminum rose after the festival, with the lower 5 / 10 moving average gradually rising, Lun aluminum will continue to repair the previous decline. At the same time, the U. S. index remained high near 99, making Lun aluminum rebound limited, the previous support level of $1750 / ton will gradually convert into the pressure level, is expected to maintain the range shock in the evening, during which time will continue to try to stand on $1750 / ton.

Shanghai aluminum main force 1911 contract opened in the morning at 13925 yuan / ton. Before noon, the bears took the initiative to enter the market to suppress the aluminum price, and the Shanghai aluminum shock hit a low level of 13800 yuan / ton. Then the short profit left the Shanghai aluminum rose. In the afternoon, some of the short more took advantage of the opportunity to enter, Shanghai aluminum rebounded in late trading, almost wiping off the daily decline, closing at 13920 yuan / ton. Position reduced by 3664 hands to 188236 hands, its trading volume is still less than 1912 contracts, the main force has not yet completed the month. The Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position by 8512 to 683308. After the National Day holiday, downstream consumption expectations have become neutral, at the same time, although electrolytic aluminum has returned to production driven by high profits, but its speed is relatively slow, coupled with only a small increase in inventory after the festival indicates that consumption is still relatively stable at the present stage, so the trend of Shanghai aluminum remains weak and fluctuating, the center of gravity moves down, but the short-term short can not continue to pursue, and quickly leaves the market after making a profit.

Spot market, aluminum in the early afternoon of the month in the narrow range of shocks in the slow downward. Shanghai Wuxi market spot quotation is mostly concentrated in 13980-14000 yuan / ton, to the surface of the water between 30-50 yuan / ton, the price fell back 70 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, Hangzhou area spot price in 14000-14020 yuan / ton. Because the accumulated stock volume was gradually released to the market two days ago, and the middlemen received the goods more actively in the past two days, the supply of goods in the market was more sufficient today, and the cardholders shipped normally. Under the background of receiving more than 10,000 tons of goods from a large household, the transaction heat of the buyers and sellers was still OK. After 11: 00, the transaction heat became weak, and the downstream manufacturers mainly left the goods as needed today, which was not much changed from yesterday. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. In the afternoon, aluminum maintained range fluctuations, market trading was light, a small number of holders quoted in the vicinity of 13980 yuan / ton, the disk rose about 30 yuan / ton, but the actual transaction was few.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 2134.5 US dollars / ton, Asia period, Lun lead basically along the daily moving average, entering the European period, the US index fell below 99, the overall strength of the outer disk non-ferrous metals, Lun lead homeopathic pull up to 2156 US dollars / ton, as of 16: 55, Lun lead temporarily closed at 2155.5 US dollars / ton, up 14 US dollars / ton, up 0.65%. Lun lead temporarily accept barehead barefoot Zhongyang line, stop falling to stabilize, from a technical point of view, Lun lead trend to maintain a strong trend, but LME lead 0-3 contract discount contango structure has been expanded, coupled with the upper Brin Road on the track suppression, it is expected that the uplink height of lead at night is limited.

Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 16915 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead throughout the day around the daily average shock, and the amplitude is about 80 yuan / ton, the top pressure on the Wanqi platform, finally closed at 16950 yuan / ton, down 85 yuan / ton, down 0.5%, position reduced by 1720 hands to 50970 hands. Shanghai lead closing cross star, daily K line trapped between the EMA, the bottom 10 EMA support still exists, but the upper ten-day moving average support is still strong, the spot market supply exceeds demand expectations, or it will be difficult to drive Shanghai lead back to the top of Wanqi, Shanghai lead at night or continue to bear pressure on Wanqi struggling operation.

Shanghai market Jinsha, southern lead 16900-16920 yuan / ton, to the 1910 contract flat water to rising water 20 yuan / ton quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Jinli, Wanyang, Jingui 16900 yuan / ton, for 1910 contract flat water quotation, of which white goods can be discounted 20-10 yuan / ton. Lead in the future continues to be weak, and the offer of the holder goes with the market, but due to the increased impact of the discount of recycled lead, more rigid demand downstream flows to recycled lead, and traders ship more passively.

Guangdong market South China lead 16950 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jinsha 16970 yuan / ton, 1911 contract water 20 yuan / ton quotation; lead price low shock operation, but the overall market procurement is relatively low, the market transaction is dull. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters are mainly long single transactions; Jinli 16875-16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 25 yuan / ton to Pingshui quotation. Henan small factory 16850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, downstream is still mainly to digest inventory, the market transaction is light. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton (traders); Hunan Jingui 16750 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 150 yuan / ton; Hechi south 16780 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 120 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper industry 16930 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 30 yuan / ton; the revitalization of Yunnan 16600 yuan / ton, the average discount price of SMM1# lead 300 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, the holder active shipment, but the downstream basically wait and see, the market seldom has the transaction, the overall transaction is bleak.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2314.5 / ton, opened higher and lower at the beginning of the session, briefly fell by US $2306 / ton, then returned to a narrow consolidation near the daily average of US $2315 / ton, and entered the European trading session. The US index quickly fell, and Lun Zinc was boosted by a rapid rise of US $2366 / tonne. By 17: 00, Lun Zinc closed at US $2363.5 / ton, up 49.5 US dollars / ton, or 2.14 per cent. Geneva zinc received the Dayang line, the lower multi-channel EMA adhesive support entity operation, the KDJ index turned upward, showing that the Lun zinc action can be relatively strong, LME zinc inventory continued to decline superimposed back structure to expand again, the intraday position reduction is mainly short, under the macro mood slightly eased, Lun zinc was boosted uplink pull up, pay attention to the support strength of the lower moving average at night.

Within the day, the Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract opened at 18815 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc narrowly consolidated and tried to detect the suppression of the middle track of Brin Road, but failed to stand firm. Under pressure, it reached 18800 yuan / ton and found support near the daily average. in the afternoon, most of the empty level boosted Shanghai zinc upward by 18855 yuan / ton, closing up 18850 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan / ton from the previous trading, up 0.86%, and trading volume increased 53242 hands to 204000 hands. Positions were reduced by 3936 to 154000. Within the day, Shanghai zinc received the small yang line, attached to the shadow line on the Brin Road middle track, the month contract and the main contract spread from-10 yuan / ton to-50 yuan / ton, indicating that the near weak and far strong pattern gradually strengthened, the intraday position reduction is mainly short, indicating that the bulls still do not have sufficient confidence, Shanghai zinc action can be considered temporarily, pay attention to the outer plate guidelines at night, Shanghai zinc or high jump opening.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18925-18965 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18935-18975 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 120-130 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 130-140 yuan / ton in November, and that of Shuangyan was 18855-18895 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 1911 high continued to weaken, the first trading session in the morning closed at 18835 yuan / ton. In the first trading period, the holder mainly quoted the average price of SMM net, and some of the holders reported a rise of 130 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract, but the spot transaction situation was weak, and the holder dropped to 1911 yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the zinc price continued to decline weakly, and the holder slightly raised the water quotation, some reported to the 1911 contract up to 130 yuan / ton; the second trading period, the zinc price continued weak downward line, the holder slightly raised the water quotation, some reported to the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton; Near the first batch of long single delivery, traders are active in the market, so the spot price rising water is relatively strong, downstream as zinc prices are still in the low rebound high, procurement is more cautious, mainly to replenish the warehouse on demand.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18770-18820 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract reported in the discount water 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount narrowed from 160 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton. The disk returns to rise, the refinery delivers the goods actively, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the holder is concentrated in the discount of 30 yuan / ton to the 11 contract, and some of the holders are quoted near the average price. Most of the market is mainly inquiry, and the trading atmosphere between traders is still OK. Enter the second trading period, the holder of part of the non-deliverable brand quotation in the 11 contract posted about 40 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere slightly warmed up, the downstream rally did not have an obvious willingness to buy, mostly wait-and-see and inquiry-based, trading today is mainly contributed by the single demand of the trader. The transaction situation in Guangdong today is slightly worse than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18770-18820 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18960-20530 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands was 18960-19050 / ton, and the contract for 1911 rose by 150-220 yuan / ton. The rising water in Tianjin market narrowed from 150 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival to 70 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply of goods has increased, but overall it is still tight. The quotation of the source of high-priced brand is about 150-220 yuan / ton to 11, and that of ordinary brand is about 150 yuan / ton to 11. The disk pulled up, the holders have downgraded the rising water, from the beginning of trading on the 11 contract rose 220 yuan / ton to 150-190 yuan / ton around. On the third trading day after the festival, the market rose so that the mood of inquiry and wait-and-see became stronger and stronger, and there was little interest in buying downstream. On the whole, the transaction today is once again worse than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18960-19050 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18910-19000 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $16475 / ton today, the Asian plate remained in horizontal arrangement near the opening price from morning to noon, and rose slightly to US $16505 / ton in the afternoon. After the opening of the European market, the continuation of the downward trend all the way down to $16340 / ton after hitting the bottom, as of 17: 00. The latest price of Lunxi is 16390 US dollars / ton, showing a negative line, the physical part is located in the 5-day moving average, the upper shadow line is under pressure in the 20-day moving average, the lower shadow line is supported by the 10-day moving average, and the lower support is expected to be near the integer level of 16000 US dollars / tonne. The upper resistance is near the 40-day moving average of 16600 US dollars / ton. This evening, we can take a look at the annual rate of CPI in the United States in September (%) and the number of jobless claims in the United States for the week ended October 5 (10,000).

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 136770 yuan / ton, the beginning of the session rose to a night high of 137280 yuan / ton, and then until the end of the night Shanghai tin overall showed a concussive downward trend. After the opening of 136370 yuan / ton in early trading today, it fell to a intraday low of 135350 yuan / ton and then hit bottom and rose all the way up. Finally, it closed at 136670 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton, or 0.19%. The trading volume was 27984 hands, the position was 39248 hands, and the number was reduced by 44 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a cross star, the lower shadow line is long near the 5-10 moving average, below by the 40-60 day moving average support, Shanghai tin support is expected to be around the 40-60 day moving average of 135000 yuan / ton, the upper resistance is around the 20-day moving average of 137800 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 136000-137500 yuan / ton, and there is a low price source of 135500 yuan / ton in the market. When the Shanghai tin market fell this morning, some businesses bargained for purchases, followed by a gradual weakening of the upward buying of tin prices. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market today is generally weak. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi water 800-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word water 200-400 yuan / ton, small brand discount 100-200 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni Asia opened at $17335 per tonne today. At the beginning of the day, Lunni fluctuated upward to a 5-day moving average of $17600 / tonne under pressure. In the afternoon, the dollar index continued to weaken, Lunni rose through the 5-day moving average pressure, touching 17685 US dollars / ton, then the center of gravity in the 17650 US dollars / ton front line slightly fluctuated operation, as of 16: 30, at 17640 US dollars / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 300 US dollars / ton, up 1.73%, trading volume decreased by 4624 hands to 1949 hands, position increased by 697 hands to 275045 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the central balcony, K column through the 5 / 10 moving average, this evening concerned about Lunni can be stable above the 5-day moving average, to maintain the $17500 / ton pass to continue to accumulate force.

Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 134720 yuan / ton, after the opening, Shanghai nickel shock upward, to the 5th moving average near the pressure, the center of gravity around 137000 yuan / ton a narrow range of concussion. In the afternoon, the trend continued to fluctuate slightly in the first line of 137000 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 137210 yuan / ton, up 350 yuan / ton or 0.26% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume increased by 327000 hands to 639000 hands, position increased by 8000 hands to 305000 hands, Shanghai nickel index capital inflow reached 336 million yuan today. Today, Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract closed at the long lower shadow line Yang Cross, the upper 5-day moving average is under strong pressure, the overall 137000 yuan / ton first-line narrow concussion operation, this evening concerned about the Shanghai nickel above the 5 / 10-day moving average pressure.

In the spot market, Russian nickel reported flat water to 100 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 today, while Jinchuan nickel generally reported 200-300 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract, and the discount water was the same as yesterday. After the nickel price was revised back to around 135000 last night, the nickel price rebounded all the way to the opening of the day, and the spot market continued to wait and see, with no obvious concentrated transactions. Russia nickel basic report level above, discount water supply is less, near delivery, if spot delivery is not ideal, traders consider flat water delivery. The market Jinchuan supply is still abundant, downstream demand is still not ideal. Jinchuan company ex-factory price of 137200 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday, the mainstream transaction in 136900-137300 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, nickel prices continued to operate on the strong side, the market response was flat, traders continued to raise the discount, downstream Monday part of the replenishment, nearly two days flat, the mainstream transaction at 137000-137300 yuan / ton.