[summary of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting] Alumina Price in North China rose slightly & inventory continued to be caused by concentrated arrival of goods after the festival

10. 10 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Disk: overnight aluminum opened at $1745 / ton, closed at $1743.5 / ton, down 0.03%, mainly long positions. Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened yesterday morning diving, in the daily average near the horizontal plate finishing, closed at 13900 yuan / ton.

Macro: (1) the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the September meeting, most policy makers supported the need to cut interest rates at the September meeting, but there are still serious differences in views on the future monetary policy path; (2) the Ministry of Natural Resources said that at present, China has embarked on the revision and drafting of the Mineral Resources Law, which will promote the opening up of the mining market in an all-round way.

Fundamentals: raw and auxiliary materials, the price of alumina in the north rose slightly, the market is more willing to make a market price; cryolite prices go down the channel, mainly due to the weakening demand of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises. In terms of environmental protection, Ningxia will soon start the first round of environmental inspectors, the first batch stationed in Shizuishan Zhongwei Ningdong, lasted 15 days. In terms of aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum ingot inventory continued to accumulate during the week, and some of the aluminum ingots that were not stored in the early stage were concentrated in storage within two days this week.

Spot: yesterday morning Shanghai Wuxi market spot quotation mostly concentrated in 14060-14070 yuan / ton, the disk rose 30 yuan / ton, a small amount of spot transaction in the vicinity of 14075 yuan / ton, 10: 30 with the release of aluminum, the market quotation began to concentrate between 1404014060 yuan / ton, the rising water 3040 yuan / ton, the price is basically flat compared with yesterday, Hangzhou spot price between 1407014090 yuan / ton. East China as a whole closed yesterday in general. In terms of spot today, the market transaction generally rose 30 yuan / ton in the month of futures, relatively stable yesterday, the supply of goods is more adequate.

Summary: attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption in the lower reaches after the festival. It is expected that the short-term main operating range of Shanghai Aluminum will be concentrated in the range of 13800 / 14200 yuan / ton. The spread between contracts focuses on 11-01 back structural opportunities. The inner and outer structures continue to be held.

(SMM Li Hao)