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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 9
Oct 9,2019 18:24CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 9
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5683.5 / tonne, copper prices rebounded to a certain extent after yesterday's copper fell, copper prices rose back to around $5700 / tonne shock, and rose 5708 dollars / tonne in front of the European market. However, due to the surge in the risk of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement and renewed trade concerns between China and the United States, IMF said it would lower its growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 in the global economic outlook released on October 15. Copper prices clearly lack the incentive to continue to rebound. After entering the European session, copper prices quickly fell below their daily averages and continued to fall, falling by $5671 / tonne, and then fluctuating around the low of $5680 / tonne. As of 16: 30, Lun Copper closed down 0.08% at $5679 per tonne, with the dollar index at 98.915 and US crude oil at $52.41 per tonne. In the evening, we will pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory changes data for the week ended October 4 and the speech made by Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell at the NABE annual meeting. At present, the copper is slightly negative, the green column of MACD index is shortened, and there is a 5-day moving average support below. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to the $5670 / tonne position.


Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46630 yuan / ton, the opening is slightly upward, the center of gravity in 46700 yuan / ton slightly stabilized, close to the midday center of gravity fell 30 yuan / ton, hovering around 46670 yuan / ton, afternoon disk continued to rebound, all the way to the day's highest point 46730 yuan / ton, the end of the day continued to decline and closed at 46640 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton, down 0.6%. Today, the daily position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased by 7910 hands to 200000 hands, the trading volume increased by 26000 hands to 91000 hands, and the position of Shanghai Copper 2001 contract increased by 7190 hands to 76000 hands. Shanghai copper index positions increased by 13000 hands to 557000 hands, trading volume increased by 47000 hands to 259000 hands. At present, the structure of the disk is about 1910 in the current month and about 1911 in the recent month, and the price difference of Back, is about 20 yuan. Today, the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai continues to remain low, mainly due to the weak macroeconomic market dominated by copper, and the superimposed dollar remains high to depress copper prices, and the market is waiting for the minutes of the Fed meeting to further judge the trend of the dollar, thus affecting copper. Today, Shanghai copper collection entity shade line, has lost all moving average support, MACD index green column elongated, the technical performance is bearish. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand at 46500 yuan / ton level.


Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 100 ~ 140 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 46770 yuan / ton ~ 46800 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 46790 yuan / ton ~ 46820 yuan / ton. The dollar rose to a high of 99.2, putting pressure on copper prices, and Shanghai copper fell below all moving averages to 46600 yuan per tonne. Morning market holders quoted water 100 ~ 130 yuan / ton, the market under the guidance of traders to inquire actively, active buying increased significantly, a round of active collection in the morning market ordered the holder to lift the offer immediately, Pingshui copper pushed up to 110 ~ 120 yuan / ton, good copper rose to 130 ~ 140 yuan / ton, the transaction activity was suppressed after the rising water, and it is difficult to show further improvement for the time being. Wet copper followed by the rise, stable rising in the rising water 70 yuan / ton ~ 80 yuan / ton. The performance of the disk price fell today, attracting downstream market entry on a bargain basis, the demand for goods improved significantly, the source of low-rise water goods was still attractive, and traders were still interested in pushing up water again. Today's buying contribution was led by traders. If the market continues to decline, the rising water may hold firm. In the afternoon, due to the continued low level of the market, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is OK, so it also makes the mood of the holder to bid up again, and the quotation continues to rise in the afternoon. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported water 110-water 120 yuan / ton, good copper reported water 130-water 140 yuan / ton, transaction price in the range of 46750 yuan / ton-46830 yuan / ton.



Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1745 per ton in the morning. During the Asian period, Lun aluminum was on the strong side of the shock, high touch 1749 US dollars / ton, as of 15: 00 aluminum reported 1741 US dollars / ton. In Europe, Lun aluminum weakened, quickly falling below the 10-day moving average low of $1734 / ton. Houlun aluminum maintained a weak shock, as of 17: 48 aluminum at $1737.5 / ton. Under the strong dollar, it is expected to maintain a weak range shock in the evening, testing the 10-day moving average support below.

Shanghai aluminum main force 1911 contract opened in the morning at 13980 yuan / ton. Open short close position, Shanghai aluminum shock high touch 14000 yuan / ton, hit the upper 10-day moving average. Before the start of the second trading session, short entry to suppress aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum quickly fell to 13940 yuan / ton, and around its range shock, the end of the day long fled, Shanghai aluminum continued to fall to 13925 yuan / ton, low hit 13920 yuan / ton. Positions were reduced by 2952 to 184572, with trading volume still exceeding 1912 contracts. The Shanghai aluminum index fell 2582 to 674796. Shanghai aluminum is expected to remain weak in the evening shock, the center of gravity continues downstream.

Aluminum in the early afternoon trading range volatility, the second stage of trading briefly stabilized after the plunge. In the morning, Shanghai Wuxi market spot quotation is mostly concentrated in 1406014070 yuan / ton, the disk water 30 yuan / ton, a small amount of spot transaction in the vicinity of 14075 yuan / ton, 10: 30 with the release of aluminum, the market quotation began to concentrate in 14040-14060 yuan / ton, the rising water near 3040 yuan / ton, the price is basically flat compared with yesterday, the spot price in Hangzhou is 1407014090 yuan / ton. This morning the transaction is OK, the middleman receives the goods actively, the holder makes an offer while the active shipment, the two sides close the deal is OK, as the aluminum price plunges downward, the market wait and see mood rises gradually, although the holder continues to make an offer to the surface, but the actual transaction heat has not been early. Downstream manufacturers today on-demand goods-based, there is no obvious bright spot in the receiving status. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. In the afternoon, the aluminum maintains the interval shock, the center of gravity moves down slightly, the market partial holder quotes in 14040-14050 yuan / ton vicinity, to the disk surface rises 40 yuan / ton or so, the transaction is less.


Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at US $2144 / tonne. In the Asian period, Lun lead fluctuated narrowly along the daily moving average. In the afternoon, the outer disk of non-ferrous metals weakened as a whole, and Lun lead also concussed downwards. Entering the European period, Lun lead briefly continued the consolidation trend, and then short added code. Lun lead plate platform moved down to US $2121 / ton, and once as low as US $2120 / ton, by 17: 04, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $2121 / ton. It fell $16.5 a tonne, or 0.77 per cent. Lun lead temporary bald barefoot shaded line, the initial emergence of the downlink channel, LME lead 0-3 contract to contango structure, directly boost the confidence of short entry, expected to lead at night or test below the 20-day moving average support.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 17040 yuan / ton, short continued entry to suppress the lead price, Shanghai lead under pressure in the daily moving average, opened the shock leakage market, and recorded a daily low of 16905 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16915 yuan / ton, down 1911 yuan / ton, down 1.69%, position reduced 3308 hands to 52690 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the big negative line, fell back to the pre-festival consolidation platform near, medium-and short-term moving average trend leveled, and entered the European period, the outer plate lead trend is weak, to a certain extent, affect the Shanghai lead night market, Shanghai lead at night or continue to be weak, and test the lower 60-day moving average support.

Shanghai market Jinsha, southern, Mu Ron lead 16975-16995 yuan / ton, to 1910 contract flat water to rising water 20 yuan / ton quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Jinli, bronze crown, gold expensive 16975 yuan / ton, to 1910 contract flat water quotation, of which white goods can be posted 20-10 yuan / ton. The future lead twist trend falls, the holder low price cherishes the sale, the quotation discount narrows, but the original lead refinery shipment maintains the discount, the recycled refined lead discount expands to 300-200 yuan / ton, the downstream is carefully mined on demand, and tends to the refinery supply, the trade market transaction is limited.


Guangdong market South China lead 17000 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up 50 yuan / ton quotation; Jinsha 16975 yuan / ton, the 1910 contract flat price; lead price high shock fall back, but most of the downstream to wait and see, the market transaction is general. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16950-16975 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead to water 25 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price shock fell back, the downstream is still dominated by digestible inventory, the market transaction is light. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16850-16900 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50-100 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Hunan Jingui 16770 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 180 yuan / ton; Hechi south 16820 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 130 yuan / ton; Jiangxi copper industry 17000 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton; Jiangxi Jinde 16925 yuan / ton, the average discount price of SMM1# lead 25 yuan / ton. Yunnan small factory 16600-16650 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300-350 yuan / ton. Lead prices fell back, the holder actively shipped, but the downstream basically wait and see, the market rarely closed, the overall transaction bleak.



Zinc: zinc in Geneva was opened at US $2295 / ton, and at the beginning of the day, zinc was slightly upright to detect the suppression of US $2300 / ton, but failed to make a trip, but fell back to US $2290 / ton for a little finishing operation. Subsequently, Zinc returned to the detection of 10-day moving average suppression. Near the European trading session, the bulls left the market neatly and dragged down the price of Zinc, falling by US $2268 / tonne, just as the decline in LME zinc stocks gave Zinc a certain stop-falling momentum. Lun Zinc rose slightly after finishing operation, as of 16: 53, Lun Zinc closed at $2274 / ton, down $18 / ton, down 0.79%. Geneva zinc received a small negative line, the upper averages strong adhesion suppression, strong uncertainty of macro factors, bulls lack of confidence, a large yard drag down zinc, but the overseas back structure once again expanded, LME zinc inventory still recorded a decline, or give Lun zinc certain support, pay attention to macro news guidance at night.


During the day, the Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract opened at 18720 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, the Shanghai zinc main force contract opened at 18720 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, the Shanghai zinc upstream was boosted by 18765 yuan / ton, and the upper 10-day moving average was strongly suppressed. The Shanghai zinc pressure fell back to 18700 yuan / ton around the daily average, and the operating range was no more than 20 yuan / ton. near the European trading period, the outer market decline dragged down the Shanghai zinc probe, and Shanghai zinc steadily recovered to 18650 yuan / ton, closing down at 18660 yuan / ton. It fell 45 yuan / ton, or 0.24%. Trading volume increased by 39706 hands to 151000 hands, and positions decreased by 1074 hands to 158000 hands. Within the day Shanghai zinc received two Lianyang, the upper 10, 40 days EMA adhesion suppression strength is strong, the month contract price difference closed to flat, the day capital transfer position far month, 1912 and 2001 contract position cumulative increase of about 10, 000 hands, mostly short, near strong and far weak pattern further strengthened, superimposed spot market tight support zinc price operation, fundamentals temporarily support, pay attention to outer disk guidance at night.


The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18815-18865 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18835-18885 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 120-130 yuan / ton in November, that of Shuangyan was 140-150 yuan / ton in November, and that of Shuangyan was 18745-18795 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the holder mainly quoted the average price of SMM net, and some of the holders reported a rise of 120 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract, and the market shipment mood was not high; in the second trading session, the zinc price fluctuated and fell back, the holder raised the water quotation, and some reported to the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton; The second trading day after the festival, the overall trading of the market is relatively light, the shipper shipment mood is not high, coupled with near the first batch of long order delivery, the market spot rising water is relatively strong.


Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18650-18720 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract reported in the discount water 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 140 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton yesterday. The Shanghai stock market rose higher. The price gap between the two places widened again. The morning holder newspaper house concentrates in the average price near, partial average price-10 yuan / ton shipment is very smooth, enters the second trading period, the trader sees the situation to stand up the price, the quotation concentrates in the 11 contract discount near 30 yuan / ton, the overall transaction discount is narrower than the first period, generally speaking, today's Guangdong market transaction atmosphere is more enthusiastic, by the trader contributes the main transaction, the transaction situation is slightly better than the day before. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18650-18720 yuan / ton near.


The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18810-20380 yuan / ton, that of ordinary brands was 18760-18940 / ton, and that of the 1911 contract was 130-280 yuan / tonne. The rising water in Tianjin market narrowed from 150 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival to 110 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the supply is higher than yesterday, it is rumored that more than 10, 000 tons of Iranian zinc arrived today, SMM will continue to pay attention. The quotation for the supply of high-priced brands is concentrated around 230-280 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water, and that for ordinary brands is about 130230 yuan / ton for 11 liters of water. Disk continued horizontal concussion consolidation, supply tightening trend slightly turned to make rising water slightly lower than yesterday, the market is generally more bearish, traders are still inquiry wait-and-see, downstream rigid demand to buy part of the transaction, today's transaction atmosphere is relatively light. On the whole, today's transaction is worse than yesterday's. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chihong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18810-18990 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18760-18940 yuan / ton.



Tin: after the opening of US $16375 / ton today, there was little trading between morning and noon in Asia. In the afternoon, Lunxi rose to US $16455 / ton led by Shanghai and tin. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi, dragged down by the weakening of non-ferrous metals, quickly fell to $16200 / ton and rebounded. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was $16300 / ton. The physical part is near the 10-day moving average, the upper shadow line is near the 5-day moving average, and the support below Lunxi is expected to be near the integer level of $16000 / ton. This evening, we can pay attention to the changes in EIA crude oil stocks in the United States for the week ended October 4 (10,000 barrels).


Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 135210 yuan / ton, affected by the long position on the whole showed a concussive upward trend. After opening 136300 yuan / ton in early trading today, it shook up again, climbing to a daily high of 137000 yuan / ton and then closing up 1670 yuan / ton, or 1.23%, to close at 136930 yuan / ton. The trading volume was 33164 hands, the position was 39292 hands, an increase of 1540 hands. Today, the center of gravity of tin in Shanghai has moved up sharply, and the positive line has successfully reversed the negative line for many days in the early stage, and began to show signs of stabilizing the decline. It is expected that the support below the tin in Shanghai is near the 40-60 day moving average of 135000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance is near 138000 yuan / ton on the previous platform.


In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 136000-137500 yuan / ton, and there are some low price sources in the market. Due to the rise in tin prices downstream enterprises wait-and-see sentiment intensified buy Xing weak, some dealers purchase a small number of low-cost sources of goods. Shanghai tin spot market today's overall transaction atmosphere is relatively light. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rising water 700-1000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 200-400 yuan / ton, small brand discount 200 yuan / ton-flat water.



Nickel: Lunni Asia plate opened at $17460 / ton today. Before noon, the center of gravity of Lunni fluctuated slightly around the daily average. at noon, the top was pressed under the pressure of $17500 / ton horizontal plate. Afternoon into Europe, LME inventories fell sharply 8898 tons, superimposed dollar index downward impact, Lunni shock upward, up to the 5-day moving average, touch high $17625 / ton, then, slightly fell back, to 16: 00, reported at $17600 / ton, up $160 / ton from the settlement price of the previous trading day, trading volume decreased 6918 hands to 2197 hands, position volume 271000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small positive line, the shadow line to explore the 5-day moving average, the bottom of the 10-day moving average of $17450 / ton first-line support, this evening concerned about the 10-day moving average can be stable above the 10-day moving average.

This evening focused on the U. S. EIA crude oil stocks (10,000 barrels) for the week ended October 4. The event focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (Jerome Powell) co-chaired a "Fed listening" round table with local business and community leaders in Kansas to discuss job market conditions, local banking, community development challenges, and other topics.

Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 136710 yuan / ton, before noon, Shanghai nickel pressure 3-day moving average 137000 yuan / ton pass, the center of gravity around the daily moving average 136800 yuan / ton range, during the high once reached 137110 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel weakened slightly, fluctuating within a narrow range below the daily moving average, and finally closed at 136740 yuan / tonne. The settlement price was the same on the previous trading day, with a 5000 increase in position to 297000 hands and a decrease in trading volume from 14000 to 312000 hands. The Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract had a capital flow of 745 million yuan today, and the Shanghai Nickel Index today had a total capital outflow of 2.259 billion yuan. Shanghai Nickel 1912 closed at the Xiao Yin line today, with a 5-day moving average of 137000 yuan / ton above, paying attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can remain stable at 137000 yuan / ton in the evening.


Today, Russian nickel is 1911 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel, Jinchuan nickel is 200-300 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract, the discount is slightly higher than yesterday, Russian nickel is more concentrated in flat water, Jinchuan Shengshui 200 yuan / ton has a small transaction. At the beginning of the session, nickel prices rose all the way to 137000 near the shock, spot trading is weak, the market is mostly on the sidelines. Subsequently, nickel prices fell slightly to 136800 yuan / ton, some traders entered the market to replenish the warehouse, concentrated in the vicinity of 13.68-136900 trading is slightly concentrated, the downstream market buyers are on the low side. Jinchuan nickel holders are generally more, although the downstream demand is weak, rising water fell near the cost line of most traders, the possibility of continued decline is small. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 137200 yuan / ton, which is 700 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday, and the mainstream transaction is 136800-137200 yuan / ton. Nickel prices in the afternoon under the overall pressure below the daily average, the market without waves, the morning has been concentrated trading completed, the mainstream transaction in 136800-137100 yuan / ton.


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