Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

According to General Administration of Customs China imported 8.73 million mt of bauxite in December, up 13.32% month-on-month and 16.4% year-on-year.

As of this Friday, the SMM weighted average alumina price index stood at 3884 yuan/mt, an increase of 64 yuan/mt from before the holiday; Shanxi reported 3850-3950 yuan/mt, an increase of 100 yuan/mt from pre-holiday; Shandong reported 3850-3900 yuan/mt, an increase of 75 yuan/mt compared to before the holiday; Henan reported 3850-3950 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt compared with pre-holiday; Guangxi reported 3700-3700 yuan/mt, Guizhou reported 3800-3900 yuan/mt, both flat from before the holiday; Bayuquan reported 3900-4050 yuan/mt, an increase of 75 yuan/mt from before the holiday.

According to SMM survey, the open-pit bauxite mines in the Jinzhong area of Shanxi were basically suspended due to heavy rains. The bauxite inventories in some alumina plants that use domestic bauxite were less than ten days.

China imported 6.1 million mt of bauxite in February, up 43.7% year on year, latest customs data showed

China’s bauxite imports in February grew 43.7% year on year to stand at 6.1 million mt, according to Chinese customs.

Energy-intensive industries including steel, cement and aluminium will be put under a strict supervision over energy conservation this year, according to a notice issued by MIIT.

In 2017, Argentina’s imported alumina is estimated to surge to 120,478 tons. China is the largest bauxite source country of Argentina.