Summary of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on October 9th
[10. 9 minutes of SMM Copper Morning meeting] Macro aspect: 1) the US Government added 28 Chinese entities to the list of entities under export control on 7 October. China expresses its strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to this. It is reported that the Chinese trade negotiating delegation may leave Washington a day early. 2) German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to British Prime Minister Johnson on Tuesday. Merkel said a Brexit agreement would only be possible if Northern Ireland stayed in the customs union. Johnson told Merkel that it was almost impossible to reach a Brexit agreement. 3) US PPI rose 1.4 per cent in September from a year earlier, down 0.3 per cent from a month earlier, the biggest monthly decline in more than four years. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said the Fed would resume balance sheet expansion, but that should not be seen as quantitative easing. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate: the Peruvian Mining Council held a public hearing on Monday on the Tia Maria copper mine building permit complaint and said it would issue its final opinion through a resolution within 15 working days before notifying the Ministry of Energy and Mines. The project is expected to produce 120000 tons of copper a year. 2) scrap copper: the price difference between fine and waste was widened to 949 yuan / ton yesterday. The profit of scrap copper holder is low, the emotion of covering goods is strong, at the same time, the terminal consumption is still light, the purchasing enthusiasm of waste enterprises is still not strong, and the actual transaction is still limited. 3) Import of copper: yesterday's import profit of about 50 yuan / ton. The first day after the festival, the morning market buyers and sellers more wait-and-see attitude, the market quotation is not active, the inquiry is also less, the current market wet bill of lading quoted $77 / ton, fire bill of lading quoted $80 / ton, three-brand good copper quotation $85 / ton; warehouse receipt source is still scarce, the market quotation is very few, only a small number of transactions. 4) inventory: LME copper stocks decreased by 2250 tons to 283350 tons on October 8, while copper warehouse receipt stocks increased by 6027 tons to 48825 tons. 5) spot: on the spot side, yesterday's market quotation was overstated and understated, and the acceptance of the high price market was low. Today's disk price performance fell back, which is expected to attract downstream purchase demand, and the market quotation is expected to stop falling. It is estimated that the spot water will rise by 80 yuan / ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: overnight session decline mainly due to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's attitude towards interest rate cuts is still partial eagle superimposed sterling against the dollar and the euro against the dollar fell sharply to support the US index, the dollar continued to maintain stability and rose 99.2 high, forming a pressure on copper prices. The current foreign economic turmoil, Britain's difficult road to Brexit, sterling also fell to a new low in nearly a month, dragging down the European economy, while risk aversion continued to rise, CMX gold continued to stand at a high of $1510 / oz. The US PPI data in September were lower than expected, and due to the disappointing data released recently, the market increased expectations of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the overall macro and geopolitical situation abroad was both negative for the copper market. At present, the market is focusing on the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the Fed's restatement to further judge the economic trend. Domestic copper consumer recovery is still less than expected, downstream enterprises are not optimistic, the demand side is difficult to say substantial good. Copper prices are expected to continue to hover low today, Shanghai copper closed negative today, has fallen below the full moving average support level. It is estimated that today's copper 56705720 U. S. dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 46400-46900 yuan / ton.
