Summary of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on September 30th
[10. 8 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) before the new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States, Chinese officials hinted that they were less and less interested in the broad trade agreement that Trump was seeking to reach. Trump said the United States could reach a good trade deal with China. In addition, according to White House Economic adviser Dirk Kudlow, will hold trade negotiations with China with an "open attitude," and anything is "possible." 2) British Prime Minister Johnson once again stressed that there would be "no delay" in Brexit, despite the lawyer's statement to the contrary in court. 3) the US ISM manufacturing PMI fell sharply to a 10-year low in September from 50.5 to a 10-year low; non-farm payrolls rose 136000 in September, below expectations of 145000, but the August data was revised upwards and the unemployment rate was 3.5 per cent at a 50-year low. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said that while the US economy faces some risks, it is still in good shape and he wants inflation to be "slightly higher". Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate: Antofagasta seeks to mediate the labor dispute at the Los Pelambers copper mine from the Chilean government. Workers had opposed flexible work and voted for a strike. The mine produced 370000 tons of copper last year. 2) inventories: LME copper stocks rose 24025 tonnes to 290250 tonnes last week from a month earlier, including an increase of 36175 tonnes on October 3; LME copper stocks fell 2825 tonnes to 288425 tonnes yesterday. 3) spot: due to the return of the post-holiday market today, the downstream also needs to have a certain purchase replenishment warehouse, in addition, the holder considers the holding cost during the holiday period, the spot quotation is expected to appear high today, the spot is expected to rise 20-100 yuan / ton. Copper prices and forecasts: copper rose overall on Monday, peaking at $5727 a tonne, up 0.67 per cent to close at $5707 a tonne. Due to expectations for the resumption of negotiations between China and the United States after National Day, Trump is still in the second step of impeachment, and as US economic data have increased expectations of another Fed rate cut, the dollar has fallen back and hovered around 98.8, pushing copper higher. At present, the market is focused on the 13th round of high-level consultations between China and the United States, as well as the attitude of the Federal Reserve on cutting interest rates again. The market remains on the sidelines on macro risk events. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech in the early hours of this morning is still partial to eagles. Even if other officials say that the economy is in recession again, it is appropriate to restart QE. The market expects that even if the Fed cuts interest rates again, the probability of a sharp fall in the dollar is still small, which is not good for the copper market as a whole. And the global economy is now weakening in the form of intensification, the European economy is weak superimposed political turmoil short-term recovery difficulties, domestic copper consumer demand is still weak showing the phenomenon of weak peak season, gold, nine and silver 10 consumption recovery trend is not as expected. On the whole, there are still many factors in the bearish copper market. It is estimated that today's copper 5710-5760 U. S. dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 46500-47000 yuan / ton.
