SHANGHAI, Sep 27 (SMM) –

Copper: The most active SHFE 1911 contract fell below 47,000 yuan/mt to the lowest in three weeks overnight, as downbeat US business investment data grew the fears of a recession, denting risk appetite, buoying the US dollar and weighing on copper prices. SHFE copper declined 0.83% to end at 46,730 yuan/mt, while three-month LME copper slipped to a three-week low of $5,719/mt before it closed the trading day 1.16% lower at $5,721/mt. SHFE copper could not find support from fundamentals, either, as consumption recovery in a traditional high season in September-October came in weaker than expected. Bearish technical indicators will also weigh on SHFE copper. LME copper is expected to trade between $5,690-5,740/mt today, with SHFE copper at 46,500-47,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen in a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, as sellers attempt to offload cargoes ahead of the Golden Week holiday.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell on Thursday for a third straight day, losing 0.77% to end at $1,739/mt, as the firmer greenback and weak demand overseas drove longs to trim their positions. August Customs data showed that China’s exports of aluminium products have fallen for three consecutive months. LME aluminium is expected to trade rangebound at $1,710-1,780/mt today. The most traded SHFE 1911 contract slipped 1.1% to end at a nearly seven-week low of 13,920 yuan/mt overnight, as longs cut their positions ahead of the week-long National Day holiday. SMM data showed that social inventories of primary aluminium in China continued to fall this week, lowered by pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream consumers. Concerns about the sustainability of a consumption recovery after the break are brewing across the market however. The SHFE 1911 contract is expected to move between 13,750-14,000 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums of 20-40 yuan/mt over the 1910 contract.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc eased from a session-high of $2,320.5/mt to close the day 0.13% higher at $2,292/mt on Thursday, marking the second straight day of gain. Optimism on US-China trade talks and encouraging economic data from Germany bolstered LME zinc, with technical indicators turning bullish. But investors will likely shift their attention back to fundamentals. LME zinc is expected to trade between $2,260-2,310/mt today. Despite a higher open, the most active SHFE 1911 contract slipped 0.59% to end at a session-low of 18,535 yuan/mt overnight, the lowest since September 5. SHFE zinc has fallen for seven trading days in a row. Technical resistance and a stronger US dollar will weigh on SHFE zinc, while positive signals on a trade deal will grow risk appetite and offer support to zinc prices. SHFE zinc is expected to hover between 18,300-18,800 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums of 120-140 yuan/mt for 0# Shuangyan over the 1910 contract.   

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel fluctuated to close 0.32% weaker at $17,245/mt on Thursday. A resistance confluence of the five- and 10-day moving averages will be closely watched today. The most traded SHFE 1911 contract hovered to end a tad lower at 136,910 yuan/mt overnight. SHFE nickel is subdued by moving averages overhead but supported by the middle Bollinger band. It will try to break the five-day moving average today.

Lead: Three-month LME lead climbed to a session-high of $2,120/mt on Thursday, before it relinquished all those gains to close the day 0.69% lower at $2,093/mt. While LME lead failed to convincingly surpass $2,100/mt, it will likely cling to its recent highs. The most active SHFE 1911 contract followed its LME counterpart lower overnight, shedding 0.32% to 16,905 yuan/mt. Despite low inventories, SHFE lead remained weak, with the risks of a pullback in the short term.

Tin: Three-month LME tin fell to a low of $16,300/mt, its lowest in more than three weeks, on Thursday before it clawed back some losses to end 1% lower at $16,400/mt. This suggested that support remains at $16,300/mt. The most traded SHFE 2001 contract touched a low of 135,090 yuan/mt, its weakest since September 5, overnight, before it recovered somewhat to end 0.78% lower at 135,510 yuan/mt. Support is seen at 135,000 yuan/mt.