Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on September 25

SMM, 25 Sept.

Copper: today's copper sub-plate opened at $5777 / ton, the morning macro bad news slightly digested superimposed the current copper market raw material end shortage support, copper prices rebounded to $5793 / ton at noon. In the afternoon, the copper market long high positions, copper prices fluctuated and fell back, followed by news that Saudi Aramco restored crude oil production capacity ahead of schedule, crude oil performance continued to explore lower, copper prices fell, down to $5748.5 / ton low. At 16: 40, Lun Copper was down 0.36% at $5760 a tonne, with the dollar index at 98.541 and US crude oil at $56.60 a barrel. Pay attention to the changes in EIA crude oil stocks in the United States in the week ended Sept. 20. In the near future, the price of crude oil fluctuates greatly, the market prefers safe haven assets, and the upward pressure of copper price is great. At present, the adhesion pressure of the moving average above the copper suppresses the upward trend of the copper price, and the green energy column appears in the MACD, and the technical surface turns empty. Waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can hold on to the $5750 / tonne position. Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1911 opened in the morning at 47030 yuan / ton, that is, all the way up to the day's highest level of 47130 yuan / ton, briefly rose to a daily high of 47130 yuan / ton, the center of gravity fell back to around 47070 yuan / ton, the bulls continued to leave the market in the afternoon, the market fell and bottomed out the lowest level of 46960 yuan / ton, the end of the day slightly pulled up and closed at 47000 yuan / ton, down 47030 yuan / ton, down 0.23%. Daily Shanghai copper main contract 1911 head reduction to 209000 hands, trading volume decreased by 2946 hands to 109000 hands. Shanghai Copper 1912 contract position increased by 4782 hands to 164000 hands. Shanghai copper index positions fell 4614 hands to 567000 hands, trading volume fell 1572 hands to 231000 hands. Today's session continued to fall, mainly because Trump smeared political opponents by the US House of Representatives impeachment investigation, the market risk aversion sentiment heated up again, CMX gold price stabilized $1540 high, superimposed crude oil API inventory rose sharply, the market worried about demand, oil prices continued to fall back to $55.30 / barrel level, are disadvantageous to copper prices higher. Shanghai copper closed negative today, the top pressure 10-day moving average, MACD green column continues to stretch, Shanghai copper up weak. In the evening, waiting for the outer disk guidance to test whether Shanghai Copper can continue to stand at the level of 47000 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 110 ~ 160 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47190 yuan / ton ~ 47260 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47210 yuan / ton ~ 47290 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper pressure dropped to 47100 yuan / ton line. Near the holiday, holders to avoid risk to clear inventory, the morning market quotation rose 150 ~ 170 yuan / ton, but the holder showed an obvious eagerness to sell goods for cash, in the case of weak transactions, Pingshui copper first fell to 130 yuan / ton, good copper quotation reduced to 160 yuan / ton. However, unable to withstand the urgent transaction of a group of small and medium-sized traders, soon Pingshui copper down to 120 yuan / ton, good copper was dragged down to 140 yuan / ton, transaction is still difficult. The second section trading stage, the market once again appeared the centralized price reduction tide, the good copper quotation rises the water 130 yuan / ton still has the pressure price space, the flat water copper quotation rises the water 110 yuan / ton; the wet copper closely follows the market quotation, from the rising water 90 yuan / ton near to the rising water 60 ~ 70 yuan / ton. Today, the decline rate of the monthly ticket is even faster, and the overall quotation in the market is declining rapidly, with a difference of about 30 yuan / ton with the good copper price of the current monthly ticket. Downstream consumption holds rigid demand, has basically come to an end, buying is very limited, only three trading days before the festival, the willingness to exchange is still dominant, risk aversion is gradually heating up, rising water may be difficult to control the decline, the price difference between the current monthly ticket and the next monthly ticket has also expanded. In the afternoon, the market quotation continued to fall, the holiday expectations have begun to show, the market is rare to close transactions, holders have a strong willingness to dump goods before the festival, and began to reduce prices sharply. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 80-100 yuan / ton, good copper reported 100-120 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 47080 yuan / ton-47180 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1763 per ton in the morning. In Asia, Lun aluminum maintained a narrow range after falling last night, hitting a high of $1766.5 a tonne in the afternoon. Lun aluminum continued to weaken in the afternoon, trading at $1757.5 a tonne as of 15: 00. In Europe, Lun aluminum volatility intensified, LME inventory increased for the second day in a row, up 7475 tons today, Lun aluminum weak shock low hit 1755 US dollars / ton, and then tried to repair the day's decline, as of 17: 42 aluminum to 1758.5 US dollars / ton. Lun aluminum fell again after falling below the EMA, it is expected that at night Lun aluminum will maintain a weak shock, gradually test the support of the low position before.

Shanghai aluminum main force 1911 contract opened in the morning at 14180 yuan / ton. After the opening of the short began to take the initiative to enter, Shanghai aluminum shock fell, and then profit short departure and low short so that Shanghai aluminum to maintain a 5-day moving average below the weak shock. In the afternoon, with the early bulls gradually leaving the field, the Shanghai aluminum shock center of gravity continued to move down, closing at the lowest level of 14110 yuan / ton. Positions fell 5272 to 222310, while Shanghai Aluminum Index positions fell 19426 to 723020. Near the 11th, the early profit bulls gradually began to leave the field, the long-short game in the long-short advantage continued to weaken, some short began to take advantage of the victory, Shanghai aluminum center of gravity continued to move down. Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to maintain a weak shock in the evening, or there may be more short intervention to make Shanghai aluminum small shock rebound.

In the spot market, aluminum fell back before noon of the month. In the morning, the spot quotation in Shanghai Wuxi market is mostly concentrated in the range of 1428014300 yuan / ton, the spot price begins to concentrate in 1426014280 yuan / ton after 10: 30, the spot price is 50-60 yuan / ton, the spot price is about 50 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, and the spot price in Hangzhou is 14300-14320 yuan / ton. As the spot price is relatively strong, the spread between the current month and the next month will remain within the range of 20 yuan / ton. In the morning, the shipper's willingness to ship is general, the middleman receives the goods more actively, although the transaction glue deadlock state has not improved obviously, but the two sides overall transaction is OK, along with the futures aluminum decline, the spot price drops along with it, in view of the holder quotation did not give the substantial concession, the rising water rises to 50-60 yuan / ton near, at this time although the shipper has increased but the middleman has shown wait and see, the actual transaction is not much. Downstream manufacturers today on demand, but due to the price decline is more obvious, there are still a small amount of stock. The overall transaction in East China is OK today. In the afternoon, aluminum slowly declined, the holder quoted between 14240-14280 yuan / ton, the disk rose 60 yuan / ton near, the afternoon market is light, the actual few transactions.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 2060 US dollars / ton, Asia period, Lun lead basically along the daily moving average, the top blocked 2080 US dollars / ton, into the European period, Lun lead temporarily maintained a volatile market, as of 17: 12, Lun lead temporarily closed at 2072 US dollars / ton, up 9 US dollars / ton, up 0.44%. Lun lead temporary barefoot small positive line, the decline of the market is suspended, but the top 5, 10 moving averages bonded to form a strong pressing platform, or will limit the upward pace of Lun lead.

Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract opened at 16805 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead short operation, after Henan Jiyuan launched heavy pollution warning, affecting part of the long and short capital trend, more short, lift Shanghai lead operating platform to 16910 yuan / ton near, during the period once touched a daily high of 16965 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16900 yuan / ton, up 135 yuan / ton, up 0.81%, position reduced by 2010 to 60418 hands. Shanghai lead closed the Dayang line, stopped falling and returned to rise, and basically made up for the decline at the beginning of the week. Part of the reduction in supply-side production may boost market confidence to a certain extent, but National Day short holiday is coming, and over-the-counter funds are afraid of renewed waves in the macro environment. It is highly probable that they will not enter on a large scale before the festival, and Shanghai lead wants to stand on the Wanqi pass under greater pressure.

Shanghai market south, Mu Ron lead 16955 yuan / ton, to 1910 contract flat water quotation; Jiangsu and Zhejiang market Jingui 16935-16955 yuan / ton, 1910 contract discount 20 yuan / ton flat water quotation. Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas due to heavy pollution weather launched orange early warning, promoting lead to higher, the holder actively quoted for shipment, while the downstream pre-festival reserve warehouse has been completed, the purchase volume has dropped significantly, the spot market water transaction is difficult.

Guangdong market South China lead 16950 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton quotation; lead price rebounded, Guangdong supply is less, the overall market transaction is general. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters are mainly long single transactions; Henan Minshan 16950 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton (pre-sale tomorrow and the day after), lead price shock rebounded, smelter to long single, downstream bargain purchase, the market transaction is still good. Other areas, such as: Shuikoushan 16950 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 50 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Hechi south 16820 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 80 yuan / ton; Yunnan small factory 16680-16700 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 200-220 yuan / ton, the market mainstream to long single transaction, bulk single shipment intention is not high, downstream on-demand procurement, market trading in general.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $2279.5 / ton, with a narrow range of fluctuations around the daily moving average at the beginning of the day, with a shock range of no more than US $5 / ton. Zinc fell slightly in the afternoon, and then returned to the vicinity of the daily moving average. In European trading, Lun Zinc fell to $2275 a tonne, closing at $2277 a tonne at 17: 08, down $2.50, or 0.11 per cent. Geneva zinc temporarily closed the small negative line, attached to the long shadow line on the 40-day moving average suppression, macro uncertainty continues to ferment, risk aversion makes the bulls confidence slightly insufficient, but LME zinc stocks continue to decline or give Lun zinc some support, pay attention to macro guidance at night.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract opened at 18630 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc slightly rose to near the daily average line at the beginning of the day, but the daily average line above the suppression is stronger, Shanghai zinc pressure fell, down 18570 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc operation moved up slightly to 18630 yuan / ton, and at the end of the day, Shanghai zinc rose slightly, closing down 18660 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton, down 0.74%, the trading volume decreased by 17600 hands to 280000 hands, and the position increased by 226 hands to 213000 hands. Within the day, Shanghai zinc received five consecutive yin, the overall pressure on the Brin Road under the middle track to run, the increase in positions in the day mainly short led to Shanghai zinc downward, superimposed macro environment fluctuation enhanced, indicating that Shanghai zinc action can be considered, however, the spot market supply tightening or to give Shanghai zinc certain support, pay attention to the daily moving average support at night.

Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 18750-18780 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 18770-18800 yuan / ton; Shuangyan ordinary October water 120-130 yuan / ton (current monthly ticket); Shuangyan reported 140-150 yuan / ton in October (current monthly ticket); Shuangyan sold in 18680RMB-18710 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the holder tried to raise the price of the 1910 contract by 140-150 yuan / ton (the current monthly ticket), and the transaction was few. After that, the holder began to lower the price of the rising water to 130-140 yuan / ton for the 1910 contract. In the second trading session, the plate fluctuated and the holder slightly lowered the discount quotation, and the ticket was quoted to the 1910 contract for 120-130 yuan / ton. Today, the market continued to decline, trading between traders is still good, mainly because the supply of monthly tickets is relatively tight, resulting in a price difference of 10-20 yuan / ton between the current month and the next month. Downstream procurement today, the overall trading is still good. Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18560-18630 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1911 contract reported in the vicinity of 30-40 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than the Shanghai stock market basically maintained at the discount of 130 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply is abundant. Overnight trading fell, the morning quotation of the holder focused on the average price of-10 yuan, a small number of holders reported in the 11 contract rose 40-50 yuan / ton, but the market transaction atmosphere is not warm. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation focused on the 11 contract rose 30-40 yuan / ton, but downstream due to the decline in disk, wait-and-see will be strong, the intention to accept the goods turned weak. Overall, today's decline, Guangdong market transactions slightly worse than the day before. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18560-18630 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18820-20420 yuan / ton, that of ordinary brands was 18820-18920 yuan / ton, and that of the 1910 contract was 200-250 yuan / ton. The rising water of Tianjin market was expanded from 110 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton again. In the market, the supply of ordinary brands and high-priced brands have tightened again, among which the high-priced brands have not been shipped due to logistics reasons. In the morning, the quotation for the pre-sale source of the high-priced brand is concentrated in the vicinity of 250 yuan / ton to the 10 contract, and the quotation for the supply of the ordinary brand is about 200-250 yuan / ton to the 10 contract. The downward shift of the center of gravity of the disk is obvious, the rising water of ordinary brands is greatly increased due to the shortage of supply, and the rising supply of high-priced brands is stable, because the circulation of goods is less, and the trading is relatively dull. On the whole, today's transaction is worse than yesterday's. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18820-18920 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18770-18870 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $16500 / ton today, the Asian session as a whole showed a trend of first suppression and then rise, falling to US $16475 / ton at the beginning of the session and then bottoming out and returning to the opening price. After the opening of the European market, the initial rapid rush to $16550 / ton after the pressure down, as of 17: 30, the latest price of $16475 / ton, showing a small negative line, the upper line under pressure in the 5-day moving average, it is expected that the support below Lunxi is near $16300 / ton. This evening, we can take a look at the annualized total number of new home sales after the August quarterly survey (10,000 households) and the change in EIA crude oil stocks in the United States for the week ended September 20 (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 136500 yuan / ton, the overall maintenance of shock finishing trend. After the opening of 136740 yuan / ton in early trading today, the overall trend of the tin plate in Shanghai remained unchanged, with an overall concussion around the daily average of 136400 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 136280 yuan / ton, down 136400 yuan / ton, down 0.20%, trading volume 21048 hands, position 38738 hands, down 108 hands. Today, Shanghai tin overall maintained a horizontal consolidation trend, closed with a small negative line, it is expected that the support below the Shanghai tin is located at the integer level of 136000 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 136,000-137000 yuan / ton, and there is actually a small amount of low-priced goods of 135500 yuan / ton in the market. Shanghai area some downstream enterprises and traders a small number of replenishment, Shanghai tin spot market today the overall transaction atmosphere is general, the Shanghai period tin 2001 contract, the current monthly ticket set cloud tin rising water 600-700 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 200-300 yuan / ton, small brand discount 400-500 yuan / ton.

Nickel: after opening at US $17165 / ton today, or under the pressure of a stronger dollar index, Lunni's daily average fell all the way down to US $17000 / ton, and fell below the US $17000 / ton mark, falling below the US $17000 / tonne mark and falling below US $16980 / tonne at 17: 00, down 160 yuan / tonne from the settlement price on the previous trading day. It fell 0.59%, trading volume decreased by 6876 hands to 1706 hands, position decreased by 2000 hands to 271000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small negative line, has fallen below the middle track of the Boll line, above the pressure and away from the moving average, tonight focused on whether Lunni can hold the $17000 / tonne level.

The Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract opened at 136800 yuan / ton today. After the opening, Shanghai nickel went down and down 135140 yuan / ton. After being supported by the middle track of the Boll line, it was slightly repaired. The center of gravity revolved around 135800 yuan / ton. Finally, it closed at 136080 yuan / ton. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the settlement price fell 2170 yuan / ton, down 1.57%. The position was reduced by 52000 hands to 316000 hands. The trading volume was reduced by 90, 000 hands to 1.616 million hands. Today, the center of gravity is 135800 yuan / ton, down 1.57%, the position is reduced by 52000 hands to 316000 hands, and the trading volume is reduced by 90, 000 hands to 1.616 million hands. The contract between Shanghai Nickel 1912 and Shanghai Nickel 2001 increased its position by more than 62000 hands, the capital inflow reached 784 million yuan, and the main position moved backward obviously. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract closed in the small negative column, the top is faced with a number of moving average pressure, this evening concerned about whether Shanghai Nickel can be supported by the Boll line rail, hold on to the 135000 yuan first line.

In the spot market, today, Russian nickel compared with Shanghai nickel 1911 discount to flat water, Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract generally reported 100-200 yuan / ton. The nickel liter discount has been stable this week. Today, nickel prices as a whole were weak and volatile, falling from $137000 to around $135500. Holders actively shipped goods in order to clear inventories. Downstream transactions were slightly better than yesterday, but trading between traders was light, mainly because the cost of hoarding was higher before the National Day holiday. Jinchuan Company Shanghai ex-factory price of 135800 yuan / ton, 1200 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, the mainstream transaction in 135500-136000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, nickel prices have been fluctuating around 135800 narrow range, spot return to dull, not as active as the morning, the mainstream transaction 135700-1.359 billion / ton.

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