[2019.9.23 Nickel Internal Morning meeting Summary] Nickel prices may maintain strong stainless steel cost pressure to push up prices in the near future.

On the macro front, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held vice-ministerial consultations in Washington from September 19 to 20 and held constructive discussions on economic and trade issues. There are three focuses in financial markets this week. The first is whether the Federal Reserve will open a new round of expansion after the surge in US repo rates. The second is the opening of preparations for a new round of trade negotiations between China and the United States. The third is US sanctions against Iran's national bank and Saudi Arabia leading coalition forces against Houthi forces in Yemen. In addition, stainless steel futures will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 25.

Nickel spot: in the spot market, the Russian nickel contract for Shanghai Nickel 1910 rose 25 yuan / ton last week, which continued to rise from the previous week. On Friday, almost all traders reported flat to Shanghai Nickel 1911 contracts. Last week, Russian nickel changed from discount to even rising water, mainly because the import window continued to close, domestic continued net consumption, superimposed this week nickel price correction, spot transactions improved. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 1910 rose 250 yuan / ton, basically the same as the week before last week, mainly due to Jinchuan company high active shipment. Spot transactions: in the first half of the week, some of the bulls left the market, Shanghai nickel dropped from 143000 to 13.5-136000 in the first half of the week, downstream trading concentrated, according to the feedback of traders, individual steel mills actively received goods in this position, the transaction improved significantly. Shanghai nickel stabilized and rebounded in the second half of the week, spot transactions are not as active as the first half of the week, but there is still a small amount of demand release, basically still concentrated around 136000 transactions.

Nickel pig iron: last week, the southern large stainless steel plant has not yet purchased a lot, there are sporadic resources to negotiate in the 1150-1170 (to the factory), but the supplier low price shipments are few, the actual trading volume of this price range is also relatively small. At present, most nickel pig iron manufacturers are delivering orders, and a few manufacturers with spot quotations are above 1200 yuan / nickel point. Although there is some room for actual negotiation, it also needs to depend on customer relations. For the future, SMM believes that in the future nickel bulls have not largely withdrawn, nickel prices will remain strong next week, if there is no low-priced supply to further impact the market mentality, then the short-term trading focus of high-nickel pig iron or there is room for small and medium-strong operation.

Stainless steel: the price of 300 series fluctuated strongly last week. At the beginning of the week, some traders said that the price of stainless steel was still stable in the near future, and the trading was relatively light. On Tuesday, due to the decline in nickel prices, stainless steel prices dropped slightly by 50 yuan / ton, and then due to the return of nickel prices at the cost end, the production reduction of East China Cold Rolling Mill and the sealing of hot rolled billets alleviated the market inventory pressure to a certain extent, and some agents said 304 was out of stock and the price was supported. Castle Peak Group raised the price twice on Thursday and again on Friday. The sales guide price of 304 hot rolled four or five feet plate is 15100 yuan / ton, which is to be approved, up another 100 yuan / ton from Thursday and five feet.

On the inventory side, according to SMM research, the total amount of nickel inventory in Shanghai, including the previous warehouse receipt inventory, increased by 1085 tons to 83000 tons, an increase of 1.3 per cent over the previous week. The specific changes are as follows: domestic stocks increased by 585 tons to 53000 tons over the previous week, including 11000 tons of nickel beans and 42000 tons of nickel plates. Stocks of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded zone over the same period were about 30, 000 tonnes, up 500 tonnes from last week, including 7800 tonnes of nickel beans, flat from the previous week.

On September 20, stocks of Lunni fell by 3204 tons to 154600 tons.

Nickel price judgment: from a fundamental point of view, Indonesia's new nickel pig iron production capacity release storage time difference, a period of time can not make up for the decline in domestic nickel pig iron production caused by the ban, at the same time, stainless steel production continues to maintain a high output, and stainless steel listing to a certain extent to alleviate the pressure of social inventory. Bulls confidence still exists, the first half of the week part of the bulls left the field, nickel prices back to 135000 after a stable rebound, is expected to remain strong this week. Lunni closed in the upper line of the small positive line, standing above the 5-day moving average, the shadow line pierced the 10-day moving average, the whole stand in the 20-day moving average line, today concerned about Lunni can break through the 10-day moving average pressure. Overnight Shanghai nickel closed in Xiaoyang cross star, has stood above the 5 / 20 moving average, the upper 10-day moving average faces strong resistance, today pay attention to whether Shanghai nickel can break through the 10-day moving average 140000 yuan / ton barrier.